留学生Essay写作—叙利亚冲突的多因果模型分析

1、http:/ 留学生论文专业定制代写网站留学生Essay写作叙利亚冲突的多因果模型分析The Syrian End-Game:Sykes-Picot Redux or a Kurdish Free State?叙利亚的最后一盘棋:赛克斯-皮科雷杜克斯(Sykes-Picot Redux)还是库尔德自由国家?The Syrian ConflictSyria has been in a civil war since 2011.The uprising against regime of Bashar Al Assad grew from civil unrest and demonstrations that coincided with the broader“Arab Spring”into a full conflict within a matter of months.Communities quickly evolved from demonstrations to armed self- defense to forming brigades to actively opp

2、ose and eject Assad forces.The Syrian civil war has become what Magnus Lundgren calls“the most acute, politically significant,and complex among contemporary civil wars” (2016,273).Initially seen as a pro-democracy movement,the conflict quickly evolved to include sectarian battle lines pitting the majority Sunni population into various camps opposing the Shia Alawite dominated regime.Stefan de Mistura,U.N.Special Envoy to Syria estimated in April 2016 that the death toll was more than 400,000(Hud

3、son 2016).The contest now includes Syrian Kurds,Lebanese Hezbollah fighters,an Al Qaeda off-shoot currently known as Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham(the Front for the Conquest of the Levant)and previously as the Nusra Front,both the U.S.led coalition and Russians providing air support for various proxies,and the Islamic State(ISIS).Although ISIS had a late arrival onto the scene,they have seized significant territory in Syria and Iraq and imposed a harsh brand of Sharia that somehow blends public beheading

4、s with strategic communications savvy.The“#AlleyesonISIS”twitter campaign was launched to coincide with the fall of the Iraqi city of Mosul and established a digital front in the war(Singer,P.W.and Brooking,E).Other actors in the operational space include the Iranians,who have shrugged off the bad feelings of their eight-year war and are supporting both the Iraqis and Assad in recouping territory and retaining power respectively.The U.S.has several thousand troops in Iraq in advisory roles and o

5、thers,not so secretly,in Syria assisting some of the anti-Assad factions.The Russians have also committed forces into Syria in support of Assad.And both the U.S.and Russia are conducting air strikes against various belligerents.Cambridge historian Richard J.Evans sees distinct parallels between the current Mideast situation and pre-World War I Europe”rival Islamic factions standing proxy for the rivalry between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia,while an additional element of danger is provided by

6、 Israel,with its nuclear arsenal,and again Iran,with its persistent attempts to build one.China and Russia are lining up behind one side while NATO and the US line up behind the other”(Keating,2014).In August 2016,Turkey sent forces across the border into Syria on an operation ostensibly supporting“Free Syrian Army”forces in clearing ISIS elements away from the border.This operation has been widely recognized as intended to prevent the Syrian Kurdish Group known as the PYD,from establishing a co

7、ntiguous territory under Kurdish control along the Turkeys southern border(Arango,Barnard,and Yeginsu,2016).Analysis through the Multi-Causal ModelThe multi-causal model is an appropriate analytic tool for the Syria conflict because it allows for a more comprehensive integration of the“syndrome of factors”(Mason,Simon and Rychard,2005)that cause violence.Additionally,it is arguably the best fit in terms of the current development of the Syria conflict.Other conflict analysis tools could be consi

8、dered and some offer various approaches and perspectives that could be useful.Of those with the most potential,Glasls escalation model may have offered insights that could have prepared mediators or a third-party intervention in 2011. Unfortunately,the rapid escalation of violence and seemingly endless expansion of belligerent groups,accelerated Syria through every analytic stage in the model.By late 2012,the Syria conflict was“fully into the abyss”(Mason,Simon and Rychard,2005).Similarly,confli

9、ct mapping is always a useful tool for graphically simplifying and representing the conflict stakeholders and their interactions.However,in the Syria case, the sheer volume of both actors,interactions,shifting alliances and the speed of change,make simplification a daunting task;Simply keeping the conflict map up to date and relevant could be a challenge.Finally,needs-fear mapping,like Glasls model,may be inappropriate for the conflict context that has become the Syria conflict.While it does acknowledge a third-party role,which many agree will be a necessary component,it implies a willingness to negotiate on the part of the belligerents.In the current stage of conflict development,there is little indication of a willingness to negotiate absent a third party with sufficient power or status to force the function.ReasonsAnalysis using the Multi-causal model begins with an examination of the reasons,or root caus

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