麦格里黄金行业研究.pdf

No.084 The Golden Eye SOUTH AFRICA 18 December 2008 Gold price:US$/oz854.0A$/oz1,231ZAR/oz8,515ZAR/kg273,771By products:Copper (US$/lb)1.39Silver (US$/oz)11.0Uranium (US$/lb)55.0Exchange Rates:ZAR/US$9.97ZAR/A$6.92US$/A$0.69US$/EUR1.41 Recomm.Share priceAustraliaA$NewcrestOutperform29.98Lihir GoldOutperform2.68Sino GoldOutperform4.71South AfricaZARAngloGoldOutperform270.02Gold FieldsNeutral95.80HarmonyOutperform100.70North AmericaC$Barrick GoldNeutral40.64GoldcorpOutperform36.38Kinross GoldNeutral20.75NewmontNeutral46.89Agnico-EagleOutperform52.20Eldorado GoldOutperform8.18RussiaUS$PolyusNot Rated20.00 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, December 2008 Analysts Dave Hall 27 11 583 2210 dave.hall@ Jim Copland 612 8232 0397 jim.copland@ George Albino 1 416 848 3594 george.albino@ Currency tailwind for Aussie gold sector ? We refresh our views on the Australian gold sector in the light of recent significant volatility in the A$/US$ exchange rate and the gold price. ? Sustained record high A$ gold prices: The Australian dollar gold price is currently trading close to all-time highs of A$1,250/oz. With our respective gold price and A$/US$ forecasts of US$830/oz and 0.65 in 2009 and US$963/oz and 0.74 in 2010, we expect record prices to be sustained for the next two years. ? Favours Australian dollar denominated cost structures: Newcrest (NCM) and Lihir (LGL), with respectively ~65% and ~50% of costs denominated in A$, are beneficiaries. Small-cap, exclusively domestic producers like St Barbara (SBM), with an A$ cost structure of an estimated ~70%, are even more leveraged to currency and gold. ? Aussie gold M TP: A$3.00) and NCM (Outperform; TP: A$30.00). Both are also susceptible to the renewed prospect of M TP: A$6.00). ? For pure gold and currency leverage, greater risk/reward and relative liquidity for an ex ASX 100 gold stock, we recommend exclusively domestic producers like SBM (Outperform, TP: A$0.40). The Macquarie gold team wishes you all the best over the festive season and a prosperous 2009. Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website .au/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Equities - Report The Golden Eye 18 December 2008 2 Gold sector: retain positive outlook We are maintaining our positive outlook for gold and are forecasting gold prices to be sustained in 2009 at current spot levels to average US$830/oz, rising in 2010 to average US$963/oz. Fig 1 Gold price outlook 2008E2009E2010E2011E2012E 2013E 2014E2015ELT Gold (US$/oz) 868830963925800 805 835858700 A$ 0.860.650.740.800.80 0.80 0.800.800.80 Gold (A$/oz) 10041282130111641000 1006 10441072Source: Macquarie Research, December 2008 ? In the short term, a principal driver is investment demand as a safe haven against global financial turmoil. While gold is down YTD in absolute terms, it has nonetheless performed well relative to base metals and most other commodities. ? In this regard, anecdotally, we have had more than one query on the reliability of gold company customers – will they honour their commitment to buy the gold? (For the record, there are plenty of risks surrounding gold companies, but counterparty risk on physical gold delivery is not one of them – gold is money). How quickly gold producers have replaced iron ore producers as offering ‘earnings certainty’! ? In the longer term, we see the inflation story reasserting itself, with the unprecedented liquidity being pumped into the global financial system, and coordinated interest rates cuts as being positive for gold, likely accompanied by US$ weakness. ? Gold’s supply/demand fundamentals also remain supportive, with flat to declining mine supply and decreased central bank selling, with gold well supported on dips by resilient jewellery demand. ? Risks include gold’s role in as a source of liquidity for spooked investors converting commodities into cash, gold’s strong correlation with the €/US$ coupled with a grim economic outlook for Europe, and otherwise, frankly, gold’s inherent unpredictability! Gold equities underperforming gold YTD ? Gold down in US$, up in A$. Using the period of calendar year to date, the US$ gold price is down 5% and the Australian dollar gold price is up 27%, driven by a plummeting Australian dollar. Fig 2 Gold price YTD (A$ vs US$/oz) $600$700$800$900$1,000$1,100$1,200$1,300$1,4001/2/20083/2/20085/2/20087/2/20089/2/200811/2/2008Gold price (US$/oz)Gold price (A$/oz)Source: Macquarie Research, December 2008 Macquarie Research Equities - Report The Golden Eye 18 December 2008 3 ? Gold stocks underperforming gold price. Meanwhile, the XAU gold index (the main North American gold equity index including North American and South African global gold majors and mid-tier producers) is down 41%! By comparison the Australians NCM/LGL and SGX indexed are down only 23% on 。