高盛 2010年 中国清洁能源研究报告.pdf

October 26, 2010 China: Utilities: Power - Generation 2011: Hydro. clean, scalable, reliable; Buy CPI/Guodian/Yangtze China’ s 12th-Five Year Plan focuses in energy efficiency We expect the government to target further cut in energy consumption per unit GDP. China’s plan to develop seven emerging strategic industries such as alternative energy and biotech may gradually reduce its energy intensity in industrial activities. As China embraces more sustainable economic growth with higher energy efficiency, we expect its yoy power demand growth to be 10% in both 2011E and 2012E, down from an estimated 13% in 2010E. We do not see near-term radical tariff reform to offer timely fuel- cost-pass-through. Hence, we think IPPs (e.g. Datang, Huadian) with higher fixed cost basis (e.g. depreciation, interest) may see challenges to earnings growth when sales growth subsides and coal prices remain high. Hydro power is well positioned as China pursues fuel diversity We expect hydro power: 1) to benefit from supportive government policies (hydro power capacity to grow to 380GW in 2020E [or 23% of China’s total power capacity], a 6% CAGR from 196GW in 2009); 2) offers a much bigger scale than wind/solar power and smaller entry barrier than nuclear power for IPPs; 3) to be less affected by slowing power demand growth in China due to its priority dispatch and lower tariffs vs. coal/wind/nuclear/solar power; 4) to be independent of regulatory uncertainty in thermal tariff; and 5) to benefit from more mature technology vs. wind/nuclear/solar power and be less subject to power grid infrastructure bottlenecks. CPI to Buy; Huaneng to Neutral; Buy on Guodian, Yangtze We upgrade CPI to Buy from Neutral as we see re-rating given our view its rising mix in hydro power (31% in 2011E vs. 21% in 2009) and resulting profitability boost (despite no tariff hike) is not being reflected in its 2011E P/B of 0.7X. We reiterate our Buy rating on Guodian and Yangtze for their hydro power exposure. We downgrade Huaneng (A/H/ADR) to Neutral from Buy on its coal-dominant fuel mix and risk/reward profile. Revision to coverage earnings estimates and target prices We revised 2010E-2012E EPS estimates by an average -5%. Our 12-month TPs are now based on 2011E P/E rather than DCF. Assuming different tariffs, utilization, coal costs, capex, and A-share premium, we revise our TPs by an average 3%. Key risks: tariff/coal cost/utilization/capacity different from our assumptions. With this report, we transfer coverage of Guangdong Electric, Guodian, Shenergy, and Yangtze Power to Alex Wu from Franklin Chow. KEY UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS Tariffs (coal-fired): Hikes of Rmb0.0-1.4 cents/kWh (or an average 0% to 4% yoy, inclusive of 17% VAT), effective January 1, 2011E. Unit coal costs: 9%-16% yoy increases in 2010E and no change in 2011E and 2012E (this is in conjunction with our assumption of no additional tariff hikes in 2011E and 2012E aside from the above). Utilization: 2% and 3% yoy increase in 2011E and 2012E same-plant utilization. Interest rate: 25bp increase effective January 1, 2011E (to reflect government’s Oct. 19, 2010 rate hike) and flat in 2012E. VALUATION SUMMARY Up/downside risks to our 12-month DCF-based target prices: tariffs/utilization/coal costs different from our assumed levels. Source: Datastream, Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Franklin Chow, CFA +86(21)2401-8923 franklin.chow@ Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Alex Wu +86(21)2401-8922 alex.wu@ Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research Stock12-mon CompanyTickerratingTP2010E2011E CRP0836.HKBuy20.401311 CPI2380.HKBuy2.201410 Huaneng (H)0902.HKNeutral5.201211 Datang (H)0991.HKNeutral3.101714 Huadian (H)1071.HKNeutral1.70N/A14 Guodian600795.SSBuy4.501816 Yangtze600900.SSBuy9.701716 Guangdong Electric000539.SZNeutral7.402318 Huaneng (A)600011.SSNeutral6.802019 Shenergy600642.SSNeutral9.501818 Huadian (A)600027.SSSell3.40N/A35 Datang (A)601991.SSSell5.804738 P/E (X) October 26, 2010 China: Utilities: Power - Generation Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Table of Contents Changes to rating, target prices and earnings estimates 2 Upgrade CPI to Buy from Neutral on rising hydro power exposure 6 Downgrade Huaneng on coal-dominant fuel mix and risk/reward 6 12-five-year plan may focus more on。