J.P. 摩根-关于新冠病毒、石油和美国选举的10个常见问题(全球投资策略报告)-2020.3.11
33页1、Answers to 10 common questions on COVID-19, Oil whether containment triggers a record-brief technical recession (two quarters) or a longer fundamental one (three or more quarters); the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal stimulus in stabilizing markets absent an effective public health response; what macro scenario is discounted in market valuations and investor positioning; and what long-term after effects these crises will create to challenge policymakers and markets in 2021. Because a risk s
2、cenario has been to think of shocks as delivering a technical recession at worst, portfolio recommendations have kept a moderate overweight of Equities versus Fixed Income but attempted to reduce beta to the business cycle by funding Equities with Credit, by owning some duration (in EMs) and by owning USD and JPY versus other currencies. There is a case for averaging more into cyclicals on a view that risk premia are high and a multi- quarter growth/earnings contraction unlikely, but the patchy
3、public health response in some countries argues for patience. Source: J.P. Morgan Mean reversion reasserts itself via a forgettable 2018, extraordinary 2019 and terrible 2020 2020 total returns versus 2019 and long-run average -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% GBI 3M cash USD 3M Cash US Treasuries Bunds JBGs GBI Global (lcy) US HG US HY US Lev Loans Euro HG Euro HY EM Sovereign EM Corporates EM Local Bonds Commodities US linkers (TIPS) USD trade-wtd EM FX MSCI World S (2) recession-li
4、ke pricing in financial markets to accommodate grim newsflow; and (3) a reversal in investor positioning from Januarys widespread overweights to neutrals or underweights. The last two conditions have mostly been met but the first has not. In an environment of diminishing returns to DM central bank easing because rates are near the effective lower bound, fiscal easing would need to be considerable (maybe 1% of GDP) to allow markets to rally sustainably if infection rates are still accelerating 2
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