瑞幸咖啡研究报告

1、Anita Yiu +852-2978-7200 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Sho Kawano +81(3)6437-9905 | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.Timothy Zhao +65-6654-5771 | Goldman Sachs (Singapore) PteSoYoung Lee +852-2978-7098 | Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pteconsumer in the form of delivery and targeted locationsstand to benefit, in our view.3) Millennials on cooking: No thanks, not yet - 35% of respondents in a Tencent survey were willing to rent a home without a kitchen. When eating out, experience is now the top ranked

2、 factor for restaurant choice, surprisingly above food safety, which is probably why Luckin complements its delivery stations with full-service stores.Key stocks Elevator advertising giant: Focus Media (Buy)nConveniently located snack stores: Zhou Hei Ya (Buy)nClear delivery strength: Yum China (Neutral)nFood delivery (Ele.me): Alibaba (Buy, on CL)nWhat else surprised us this monthTravel to Korea +13% yoy in March, the first positiven print since the group tour ban in 2017 . We expect continued

3、rebound ahead. We also expect outbound travel to HK to remain healthy at +MSD in 2018E.China Consumer Pulse Check: From 0 to 5mn: What the explosive growth of one coffee brand reveals about Chinese consumers 16 May 2018 | 4:59PM HKT3 trends relevant for advertising, retailing and food services In just 7 months, Luckin Coffee (Privately held) has catapulted from nonexistence to selling 5mn cups of coffee in the 4-month trial operation period ending May 8. We do not take a view on the longer term

4、success of its business model, but we think the brands surging popularity highlights three trends that are relevant for our covered companies:1) Getting attention: Real world presence (still) critical - Theres no doubt that digital marketing is important, but webelieve it would be a mistake for companies to ignore offline presence. In particular, Luckin highlighted that elevator advertising (industry +c.20% yoy in 2017) has helped it rapidly build brand awareness. We also expect more development

5、 in New Marketing with the growing integrationof online and offline worlds.2) Convenience: Bringing products to consumers -Luckin management flagged the lack of convenience as a key pain point for todays coffee customer. Indeed, considering Chinas long working hours and commuting time, convenience is valued, increasingly expected and uniquely affordable among consumers in China (US$0.8 delivery fee). Companies that bring their products to theGoldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with compa

6、nies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享5+最新重磅报告；2、每

7、日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、每月汇总500+份当月重磅报告（增值服务）扫一扫二维码 关注公号 回复：研究报告 加入“起点财经”微信群。Premium cosmetics companies continue to go from strength to strength. Shiseido (Buy, on CL)s China/HK cFX salesn accelerated to +27% yoy in 1Q18.Visit our portal to see our full coverage.16 May 2018Goldman SachsChina Consumer Pulse CheckWhat we can learn from Luckin Coffees sudden success with young office workersFounded just 7 months ago, Luckin Coffee has become very popular amongst young office workers in Chinas

8、top cities. According to the company, it sold 5mn cups of coffee to 1.3mn consumers in the 4 months ending May 8; by end of May, it expects to have 525 points of sales, eclipsing Costa Coffee, which has been building its China presence over the last 12 years. How did this happen? Luckin Coffee appears to have taken a page from the internet playbook: the company is aggressively investing in customer acquisition and scale with subsidies and advertising, and positions itself as a disruptor - bringi

9、ng lowerprices and greater convenience to the coffee experience. It also has a laser-focus on young office workers: 84% of its BeijingPOS are in offices and malls in commercial districts and the company is also launching enterprise catering services. While we do not take a view on the sustainability of this business model, we think the brands popularity highlights 3 key trends with Chinese consumers that are relevant for our covered companies:Getting attention: Real world presence (still) critical1.Convenience: Bringing the product/service to the consumer2.Millennials on cooking: No thanks, not yet3.Exhibit 1: Luckin Coffees explosive growth since October puts it at #2 in terms of POSCompanyStarbucksCosta CoffeeHeyteaCoffee BoxLuckin CoffeeCountry of OriginUSAUKChinaChinaChinaYear started in China119992006201220152017# stores/POS23,236c.42084100+525Price3Rmb 31 (US$4.9

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