【管理精品】广告模型研究

1、广告模型研究amon 2003本专题研究的重点不在于对浩繁的广告手段/方法的操作一一进行详尽阐述，而在于提供制定、实施、评估促销策略的思路。现代市场营销不仅要求企业发展适销对路的产品，制定吸引顾客的价格，改善物流，以使目标顾客易于获取他们所需要的产品/服务；而且更要求企业塑造/控制其市场/品牌形象，设计并传播包括企业文化理念、产品外观、特色、购买条件、功能效用等在内的各种信息，即进行促销与沟通活动。促销即促进销售。通过各种媒介和手段，在生产者和消费者之间进行信息沟通，使消费者能了解企业和了解企业的产品。促销的本质不是推销产品，而是信息沟通。图1传统的促销形式如上图，促销策略研究对象传统上包括广告、销售促进、人员推销、公共关系等4块。因此，促销的决策可分为三项：如何将4种促销方式进行最佳组合，或既定的促销费用如何在4种促销方式上进行分配，以取得最大的促销效果；如何选择促销方式及具体的促销手段或媒介；如何测度各种促销方案尤其是广告的效果。在具体介绍以上本专题研究的任务，即第三项任务之前，对促销及其相关实施框架进行事先了解，不无必要。以下即在此基础上进行进一步深入的专题研究。第四部分广告模型

2、Aggregate Advertising Models“Aggregate advertising models relate product sales to advertising spending for a market as a whole.”内容可分为两大类：Advertising Response Models（ARM）和Advertising Decision Models（ADM）。决策：ADM研究ADM的研究内容主要包括广告预算/支出（budget/expenditure）决策和媒体选择决策。首先，广告支出决策主要关注：年度预算annual budgets；地理分布geographic allocation；时间分布allocation over time。这一领域的研究常常与G. Telser在1964年发表的Advertising and Competition密不可分。该文章是广告与竞争方面研究的起点。其主要发现是“广告与竞争之间的负相关关系没有得到实证的支持”。其后，支持与反驳的文章、证据不断涌现，争论也不断。但在这一领域否定的意见占优。与之相关，Kald

3、or在1950年发表，对“广告支出是否过多”进行了讨论，同样导致了对广告支出研究的兴起。广告支出是否过多主要取决于广告信息的市场需求、这些信息定价和发布的途径以及最终产品市场的环境。更全面的阐述，请参阅William S. Comanor & Thomas A. Wilson在1979年发表的综述性文章The effect of Advertising on Competition: A Survey。这篇文章同时也是（ARM中的）Interaction的代表性文章。媒体选择决策方面，Little（1979）列举了主要媒体选择模型（Media Selection Models）： Little & Lodish（1969），A Media Planning Calculus Gensch（1969），A Computer Simulation Model for Selecting Advertising Schedules Zufryden（1973），Media Scheduling: a Stochastic Dynamic Model Approach Starr（1978），

4、OR in Marketing: a Case of Failure and Renewal总体而言，ADM方面的研究在以上中文报告中已得到体现，而限于时间和精力，本小组未对英文文献的回顾进行搜集整理。故，以下重点阐述ARM方面的研究。 测度：ARM研究在ARM方面，1977年，Sethi发表了综述文章Dynamic Optimal Control Models in Advertising：A Survey，对这些模型的最优效果进行了初步梳理和调查研究。更为完整而深入的研究归功于Little在此领域的长期关注。1979年，John D.C. Little发表了里程碑式的文章Aggregate Advertising Models ：The State of the Art。这篇经典文章的写作背景是，以往研究对ignorance of advertising response phenomena（对广告反馈现象的忽略），inability to make good measures（测量效果不佳），lack of a theory to organize existing knowle

5、dge缺乏一个系统的理论来综合已有研究成果。不仅如此，Little还特别指出，ARM方面的矛盾遍布。为此，Little对已有的模型进行了回顾、梳理。1研究主题与主要结论在Little看来，ARM应有助于：track and evaluate advertising performance（追溯和评价广告效果），diagnose market changes （诊断市场变化） and incorporation into decision models （与决策模型的融合）。为此他对论战的三个领域（的模型）进行了总结： Shape是指“the shape of a curve showing sales response to advertising under steady state conditions”。它通常需要回答：Is such a relationship between sales rate vs. advertising rate linear? What are sales with zero advertising? Is response S-shaped? D

6、o large amounts of advertising depress sales? Dynamics也包括4个关键问题： How fast do sales respond when advertising is increased? How fast do sales decay when advertising is decreased? Does hysteresis ever exist? How does advertising effectiveness change with time?(and how can we model it?) Interaction主要研究： Is it better to advertising where sales are strong or weak? Are advertising effects additive with other marketing variables (e.g., price, promotion, and competitive actions,) or multiplicative, or do

7、 the interact in more complicated ways?事实上，绝大多数的ARM都可归入以上问题范畴。或者说，这些模型主要针对或涵盖的是以下广告现象：1. sales responding upward and downward at different rates 2. steady state response can be concave or S-shaped and can have positive sales at zero ad3. sales affected by competitive advertising4. advertising dollar effectiveness that can change over timeLittle对以上领域模型的实证进行了总结，得出了如下结论最重要的5个现象：“The empirical evidence suggests that at least the following phenomena should be considered in building dynamic models of

8、advertising response：1. Sales respond dynamically upward and down ward to increases and decreases of advertising and frequently do so at different rates2. Steady-state response can be concave or S-shaped and will often have positive sales at zero advertising3. Competitive advertising affects sales4. The dollar effectiveness of advertising can change over time as the result of changes in media，copy，and other factors5. Productssometimes respond to increased advertising with a sales increase that f

9、alls off even as advertising is held constantAll of these effects hold implications for managerial actionObviously other important phenomena also exist：some have been discussed，and others remain to be discovered”2经典模型对于过去20年发展起来的模型，Little写道，“researchers have been adding marketing models to the literature like grains of sand to the beachBy now the pile，if not a dune，is at least a sand castle”简而言之，沙砾无数，乃至成滩。其中，明显不同的构建模型的两个传统共存于文献中： Priori a priori draws heavily on intuition，although its practitioners are not oblivious to data，the model buildinggoal is to postulate a general structure，not describe a specific application statistical orEconometric usually starts from a specific data base，e.g.，time series of sales or share and advertising此外，一些早期和越来越多的新研究将两者结合起来：Mixedstarts with rather more complicated a prio

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