世界白银年鉴2008.pdf

World Silver Survey 2008 World Silver Survey 2008 Philip KlapwijkPhilip Klapwijk Chairman, GFMS LimitedChairman, GFMS LimitedNew York, 7New York, 7ththMay 2008May 2008??PricesPrices??Demand Demand ??SupplySupply??Investment Investment ??Outlook for 2008Outlook for 2008World Silver Survey 2008World Silver Survey 20082468101214161820Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08US$/ozThe Silver PriceThe Silver Price2007 average US$13.38, up 15.9% y-o-yJan-Apr 2008 average US$17.57, up 31.2% y-o-y Source: Reuters EcoWin2468101214161820Jan- 98Jan- 99Jan- 00Jan- 01Jan- 02Jan- 03Jan- 04Jan- 05Jan- 06Jan- 07Jan- 08US$ and Euro/oz2468101214161820Jan- 98Jan- 99Jan- 00Jan- 01Jan- 02Jan- 03Jan- 04Jan- 05Jan- 06Jan- 07Jan- 08US$ and Euro/ozUS US DollarDollar and Euro Pricesand Euro Prices2007 average €10.10, up 6.4% y-o-yJan-Apr 2008 average €11.96, up 14.0% y-o-y US$EuroSource: Reuters EcoWin 50100150200Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Index (Jan 07=100)Silver, Gold and Base Metals PricesSilver, Gold and Base Metals PricesnickelcoppersilverzinctingoldSource: Reuters EcoWin-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.0Jan- 95Jan- 96Jan- 97Jan- 98Jan- 99Jan- 00Jan- 01Jan- 02Jan- 03Jan- 04Jan- 05Jan- 06Jan- 07Jan- 08Correlation CoefficientQuarterly Correlation of Daily Silver Price Quarterly Correlation of Daily Silver Price with Gold and Copper Priceswith Gold and Copper PricesCopperGoldCorrelation against copper has increased during rally-to date and in Q1 2008 was notably stronger than that with gold. Source: GFMS Ltd.Source: GFMS Ltd.??PricesPrices??DemandDemand??SupplySupply??Investment Investment ??Outlook for 2008 Outlook for 2008 World Silver Survey 2008World Silver Survey 2008World Silver Fabrication Demand, 2007World Silver Fabrication Demand, 2007Industrial Applications 54.0%Photography 15.2%Jewelry 19.4%Silverware 7.0%Coins *includes Mexico? ?Scrap supply fell by just over 3% last year in spite of the Scrap supply fell by just over 3% last year in spite of the 16% rise in the dollar silver price. 16% rise in the dollar silver price. ? ?Recycling fell by 30% in India, partly due to much nearRecycling fell by 30% in India, partly due to much near- -market market jewelryjewelry stocks having already been scrapped in stocks having already been scrapped in 2006. 2006. ? ?Elsewhere, photographic scrap’s decline was moderated Elsewhere, photographic scrap’s decline was moderated by steady flow of old Xby steady flow of old X- -rays in some markets.rays in some markets.? ?Notable rise in recovery of industrial products in 2007, Notable rise in recovery of industrial products in 2007, especially Ethylene Oxide catalysts. especially Ethylene Oxide catalysts. Scrap SupplyScrap Supply??Government sales estimated at 42 Government sales estimated at 42 Moz Moz in 2007, in 2007, substantially down on previous years’ levels.substantially down on previous years’ levels.??Absence of Indian and Chinese official selling.Absence of Indian and Chinese official selling.??Russia accounted for bulk of government sales Russia accounted for bulk of government sales last year.last year.??Total government silver stocks conservatively Total government silver stocks conservatively estimated at 96 estimated at 96 Moz Moz at endat end- -2007. 2007. Government SalesGovernment SalesChanges in Government StocksChanges in Government Stocks-120-100-80-60-40-20020401996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Million ouncesPurchasesSales Net ChangeOthersChinaSource: GFMS Ltd.Identified Bullion Stocks Identified Bullion Stocks (end(end- -year)year)02004006008001000120014001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Million ouncesOthers Comex Government European Dealers*Source: GFMS Ltd.; *includes ETF holdingsFrom “Deficit” to a Balanced MarketFrom “Deficit” to a Balanced Market5005506006507007508008509009501992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007M illion ouncesDEMAND (fabrication demand)SUPPLY (mine production + scrap)Source: GFMS??PricesPrices??Demand Demand ??SupplySupply??InvestmentInvestment??Outlook for 2008Outlook for 2008World Silver Survey 2008 World Silver Survey 2008 Silver (Silver (DisDis)Investment and Real Price)Investment and Real Price-160-120-80-400408019851990199520002005million oz0246810121416real silver price in 2007 dollars/ozReal Silver PriceReal Silver PriceNet DisinvestmentNet DisinvestmentNet InvestmentNet InvestmentSource: Silver Institute, GFMS Ltd.ETF Silver HoldingsETF Silver Holdings04080120160200240Apr- 06Jul- 06Oct- 06Jan- 07Apr- 07Jul- 07Oct- 07Jan- 08Apr- 08Million ounces810121416182022US$/ozZKB ETF Securities iShares Silver Trust Silver PriceSource: Respective ETF issuersTotal end-April 2008 = 212 MozInvestors’* Net Positions in Investors’* Net Positions in Comex Comex Silver FuturesSilver Futures020406080100Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Net positions (contracts, thousands)04008001200160020002400cents/ozComex Settlement Price*Non。