世界黄金年鉴2009.pdf

Gold Survey 2009Gold Survey 2009Philip KlapwijkPhilip KlapwijkExecutive Chairman, GFMS Ltd.Executive Chairman, GFMS Ltd.Executive Chairman, GFMS Ltd.Executive Chairman, GFMS Ltd.London, 7London, 7ththApril 2009April 2009, ,p pGFMS gratefully acknowledge the generous GFMS gratefully acknowledge the generous support from the following companies for this support from the following companies for this ppgpppgp year’s year’s Gold Survey Gold Survey and its two and its two UpdatesUpdatesTanaka Precious Metals GCommerzbank Global Precious MetalsValcambi saBarrick Gold CorporationWorld Gold CouncilDubai Multi Commodities CentreJPMorgan Chase BankScotiaMwww.IBKCJohnson M Gold CINTL Commodities, INCThe GFMS Group’s Unique Research Cbiliti Thomson Reuters EcoWinSource: GFMS; Thomson Reuters EcoWinEuro Gold PriceEuro Gold Price Weekly AveragesWeekly Averages680780 EUROEURO2007200720082008Q1 2009 Q1 2009 AverageAverage506.80506.80593.09593.09698.17698.17580680ozEuro/ozAverageAverage506.80506.80593.09593.09698.17698.17IntraIntra- -YearYear17.7%17.7%6.9% 6.9% 10.0%10.0%YearYear- -onon- -YearYear5.5%5.5%17.0%17.0%13.1%13.1%480580Euro/o3802626- -week moving averageweek moving average280 Jan- 03Jul- 03Jan- 04Jul- 04Jan- 05Jul- 05Jan- 06Jul- 06Jan- 07Jul- 07Jan- 08Jul- 08Jan- 0903030404050506060707080809Source: GFMS; Source: GFMS; Thomson Thomson Reuters EcoWinReuters EcoWinTurkish year;year figure will almost certainly be well up yearyear figure will almost certainly be well up year- -onon- -year; year; in Q1 2009 scrap supply surpassed in Q1 2009 scrap supply surpassed jewelleryjewellery fabrication fabrication volumes.volumes.Demand in 2009Demand in 2009• •Historically high prices and increased volatility will have a dramatic Historically high prices and increased volatility will have a dramatic impact on global impact on global jewelleryjewellery demand. Economic downturn also demand. Economic downturn also pgpgjyjyhaving a marked impact in many countries. Concentrated buying having a marked impact in many countries. Concentrated buying expected on price dips, e.g. on any excursion to $800expected on price dips, e.g. on any excursion to $800- -$850. $850. • •Other fabrication (excluding coins) to be hit by slowOther fabrication (excluding coins) to be hit by slow- -down in global down in global economic growth.economic growth.g g• •Prospects for further deProspects for further de- -hedging are limited by the now very low hedging are limited by the now very low outstanding producer outstanding producer hedgebookhedgebook. .g pg pg g• •Investor interest in gold is expected to remain strong throughout Investor interest in gold is expected to remain strong throughout this year and potentially well into 2010.this year and potentially well into 2010.this year and potentially well into 2010.this year and potentially well into 2010.Investment IssuesInvestment Issues• •The effects of the global The effects of the global economic and financial crisis and the economic and financial crisis and the fiscal and monetary policy response to this continue fiscal and monetary policy response to this continue to provide to provide a strong investment case for gold:a strong investment case for gold:• •Heightened risk aversion among investors; capital preservation Heightened risk aversion among investors; capital preservation paramount,paramount,• •Short term interest rates close to zero in major currencies and Short term interest rates close to zero in major currencies and negative in real terms,negative in real terms,Miiit fil d fi it (ft $1 8 t illiMiiit fil d fi it (ft $1 8 t illi• •Massive rise in government fiscal deficits (e.g. forecast $1.8 trillion Massive rise in government fiscal deficits (e.g. forecast $1.8 trillion this FY in US) that will stretch into mediumthis FY in US) that will stretch into medium- -long term,long term,• •Money supply growth rapid; central banks embarking upon Money supply growth rapid; central banks embarking upon ypp y gp ;gpypp y gp ;gp ‘quantitative easing’ and debt monetisation; inflation will re‘quantitative easing’ and debt monetisation; inflation will re- -emerge as emerge as major concern,major concern,US d lltilllblb tthilt idUS d lltilllblb tthilt id• •US dollar particularly vulnerable but other currencies also not viewed US dollar particularly vulnerable but other currencies also not viewed as attractive safe havens. as attractive safe havens. Price OutlookPrice Outlook• •Investors will Investors will remain the principal driver of the expected remain the principal driver of the expected next next leg of the bull market leg of the bull market to a to a new high new high above the $1,000 mark with above the $1,000 mark with $1,100 a real possibility.$1,100 a real possibi。