能源展望2035.pdf

BP Energy Outlook #BPstatsJanuary 20142013_02_15_BP_34621_A5Energy_outlook_LM.indd 22013_02_15_BP_34621_A5Energy_outlook_LM.indd 215/01/2014 14:1615/01/2014 14:16© BP 2014DisclaimerThis presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.Energy Outlook 20352© BP 2014ContentsIntroductionOutlook 2035: Global energy trendsLiquid fuels Natural gasCoal and non-fossil fuelsCarbon emissions and the fuel mixAppendixEnergy Outlook 20353Page472351677991© BP 2014Welcome to the 2014 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook.Published for the 4th time, the annual Energy Outlook reflects our best effort to describe a “most likely” trajectory of the global energy system, based on our views of likely economic and population growth, as well as developments in policy and technology. The Outlook, like its sister publication, the Statistical Review of World Energy, is the result of intensive analysis by our Economics Team; both documents have deservedly become standard references for those with an interest in energy.Of course the future is uncertain: the numbers that make up this Outlook are less important than the long-term trends, the possible forks in the road ahead, and the choices they pose for decision makers in government and business. This edition of the Outlook raises three big questions: Will the world have sufficient energy to fuel continued economic growth? Will that energy be secure? And will it be sustainable?On the first question, our answer is a resounding “Yes” . We project that global energy consumption will rise by 41% by 2035, with 95% of that growth coming from rapidly- growing emerging economies. That growth rate is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace. New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply. Energy efficiency promises to improve unabatedly, driven by globalization and competition. 4Energy Outlook 2035© BP 2014On the question of security, our Outlook offers a mixed, though broadly positive, view. Among today’s energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy self- sufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase. Asia will become the dominant energy importing region. Russia will remain the leading energy exporter, and Africa will become an increasingly important supplier. While it will remain a key energy player, the Middle East is likely to see relatively static exports.And on the question of sustainability, we project that global carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 29%, with all of the growth coming from the emerging economies. There are some positive developments: emissions growth will slow as natural gas and renewables gain market share from coal and oil. And emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US. But we could do better.This year, we extend the outlook to 2035 – far enough to see some key turning points: India is likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth; renewable energy will no longer be a minor player, surpassing nuclear energy; and OECD countries will have started to “crack the code” of sustaining economic growth while reducing energy demand.Once again, the Outlook highlights the power of competition and market forces in unlocking technology and innovation to meet the world’s energy needs. These factors make us optimistic for the world’s energy future, and they suggest a way forward in mastering challenges such as security and sustainability. I hope you find the BP Energy Outlook a useful addition to the global energy discussion.Bob Dudley Group Chief Executive5Energy Outlook 2035© BP 2014Note on method and assumptionsThis edition updates our view of the likely path of global energy markets and extends it to 2035. The underlying methodology remains unchanged – we make assumptions on changes in policy, technology and the economy, based on extensive internal and external consultations, using a range of analytical tools to build a single “most likely” view.We focus on these “most likely” numbers, 。