全球海上风电调查.pdf

Offshore proof Turning windpower promise into performancePwC offshore windpower survey – based on field research conducted by GBIIntroduction3Executive summary4Promise, performance and costs6Offshore windpower in Asia13Global overview map of offshore windfarms14Make or break issues16Contacts26Contents2PwC offshore windpower surveyMethodology PwC’s offshore windpower survey is based on field research conducted between December 2010 and February 2011. In total, 57 interviews were carried out with offshore windpower executives in 12 countries by GBI Research. By country eight interviews were conducted in Germany, six in Denmark, six in Finland, six in the United Kingdom, five in Belgium, five in the Netherlands, five in Sweden, five in Spain, four in Ireland, four in Norway, four in China and three in Japan. Respondents were senior managers and executives from offshore windfarm developers and operators (13), utilities (10), contractor or turbine original equipment manufacturers (14), government bodies (8) and financial institutions involved in offshore windfarm finance (12). All interviews were conducted by telephone. Due to rounding, totals may not add up to 100% in some cases.PwC thanks all the participants who took time to complete the survey. We would also like to thank our local PwC teams for their insightful contributions throughout this project.57 interviews were carried out with offshore windpower executives in 12 countriesBelgium China Denmark Finland Germany Ireland Japan Netherlands Norway Spain Sweden United KingdomIntroductionOffshore wind generation is fast growing and has great potential to meet energy needs in the future in a sustainable way. But many challenges – technical, financial and logistical – need to be overcome if this new energy source is to come of age and take its place as an enduring and significant part of the generation mix. The coming few years will be ‘make or break’ time in deciding whether offshore windpower will be able to get on track to prove its place as a source of large-scale generation. Ultimately, it needs to show it can reach efficiencies and cost levels near enough to onshore installations to make it competitive in the energy mix. In ‘Offshore Proof’ we look at this and other challenges, getting the views of the major players who are central to determining the pace of growth of the industry. We speak to developers, contractors/original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), utility companies, government bodies and financial institutions. We gather industry data on the roll-out and performance of offshore wind generation so far. We discuss some of the main challenges that developers and contractors are facing. Finally, we look at the ‘make or break’ issues that will determine how quickly offshore wind will move from infancy to maturity.The findings give cause for optimism while sounding a note of caution on the challenges that lie ahead. Emerging experience from European developers suggests that the foundations are in place for offshore technology to match or, if wind potential is realised, surpass onshore performance. But the need to reduce costs is immense and it remains unclear just how far cost reduction can go and when it will be achieved.PwC offshore windpower survey3Manfred Wiegand Global Utilities LeaderPaul Nillesen European Renewable Energy LeaderExecutive summary4PwC offshore windpower surveyThe offshore wind industry is coming of age as it moves from a pioneering phase to one of large-scale industrial production. ‘Offshore Proof’ looks at some of the important challenges facing the industry with a survey of the views of some of the main players involved – developers, contractors/original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), utility companies, government bodies and financial institutions. Offshore windpower is furthest advanced in Europe so our survey focuses on European respondents, but is supplemented with a small number of interviews in Asia, where offshore windpower projects are beginning to be developed.Much is expected of offshore windpower. Three-quarters of the survey respondents from government bodies anticipate it will play an enduring role in the energy mix in the coming 20 years and nearly three-fifths (59%) expect it to be economic without subsidies within 15 years. But doubts remain about whether technological developments will work in favour or against offshore wind generation. Although over three-fifths of the government bodies we surveyed think there is a medium to high chance of technological breakthroughs boosting offshore windpower, the same proportion also acknowledge it could get overtaken by breakthroughs in other renewable technologies.An important challenge facing the industry will be to show that onshore turbine performance can be matched by offshore performance. Survey results from European developers give some cause for optimism. Offshore wind projects are achieving comparable levels of availability to onshore. Fewer than one in five。