2014年1季度中国对外投资分析报告.pdf

1 TITLE HERE Contents Investment in China: Numbers and Trends •China’s GDP grew by 7 .4 percent for the first quarter of 2014, lower than the government target of 7 .5 percent, but ahead of most analyst estimates •First quarter Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in positive territory at 50.3, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.4 percent (versus the government’s 3.5 percent target for the year) •ODI in non-financial sector decreased by 16.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, but a number of factors should propel total Chinese ODI for 2014 above levels reached in 2013 •Inbound FDI increased by 5.5 percent year-on-year, as China’s services industry buoyed investment growth  Macroeconomic Analysis  Outbound Direct Investment (ODI) Analysis  Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Analysis 02 05 07 2 Target:8 7.4 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.8 7.7 Target:7.5 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percentage 50.4 50.1 50.9 50.6 50.8 50.1 50.3 51 51.1 51.4 51.4 51 50.5 50.2 50.3 48 49 50 51 52 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2013 2014 Percentage Macroeconomic Analysis Slower growth, but close to 7.5 percent target The Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014. Although the number narrowly beat most forecasts, it is 0.3 percent less than the same period last year and 0.1 percent below the government’s target. Other statistics also suggest that the Chinese economy is facing headwinds. GDP quarterly growth rate, year-on-year Monthly Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) Although PMI is still in positive territory (above 50 percent): both fixed asset investment and industrial value-added are seeing slower growth. Investment in real estate is also slowing, the floor space of properties sold has declined, and the value of net exports has also declined versus the same period last year. Alongside downward pressure on the economy, China is also dealing with three simultaneous ‘impacts’: the impact of down-shifting to slower economic growth; the impact of structural adjustments to the economy; and the impact of side-effects from previous large-scale stimulus measures. Nevertheless, China is speeding up its process of economic restructuring and upgrading, with the value-added percentage from the tertiary industry rising year-on-year. Peter Fung Global Chair, KPMG’s Global China Practice “The government is making a trade- off: a little realignment ‘pain’ in the short-term, as it pushes ahead with reforms that will bring healthy development over the long-term” Q1’2014 GDP 7.4% Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), KPMG Analysis Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), KPMG Analysis 3 12.3 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.7 13.6 11.8 11.8 12.2 10 11 12 13 14 15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2013 2014 Percentage According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), private investments accounted for 64.8 percent of total fixed asset investment, up 1.8 percentage points over the same period in 2013, which shows the private sector is becoming more active compared to the State-owned sector. Growth of average per capita disposable income has outpaced GDP growth in the first quarter of 2014, while employment and inflation indicators are also in line with expectations: overall economic growth still appears to be within the ‘proper range’ forecasted by the central government. Basic drivers of the economy haven’t gone away Although economic figures in the first quarter are not stellar, China’s economic drivers are still very much in place. These include: •Infrastructure investments, such as urbanization construction projects and shantytown renovation projects. •Emerging industries, such as smart grid, nuclear power generation, environmental protection and new energy. •International trade and outbound investment: the government is actively pursuing and signing investment treaties and free trade zone agreements, and other initiatives such as the ‘the Silk-road Economic Belt” and an “Economic Corridor’ between China and Southeast Asian countries. •The private sector, which is being given new room to grow with the reform of SOEs, the opening of monopoly industries, and the introduction of new tax deduction and exemption rules. •Expanding domestic demand: the government has made it clear that it will increase wages and income, which will further enhance the consumption function of GDP. On April 2nd, 2014, the State Council executive meeting unveiled three economic promotion measures: greater support for the redevelopment of run-down urban areas; more investment in railways; and tax breaks for small- and micro-enterprises. On April 10th, 2014, The Monetary Policy Commission of the People's Bank of China also held its first quarter meeting, stating that China’s overall financial operations are。