ch03-财货市场均衡-凯因斯课件

1、頭腦體操？,為什麼會有失業？造成的原因是什麼？ 1930年代經濟大恐慌，為何有普遍失業的現象? 失業產生究竟是因為企業生產萎縮(供給不足)所致，還是商品賣不出去(需求不足)所致? 近一二年，全球及台灣普遍高失業率的現象，是供給面還是需求面所引起？ 台灣經濟不好，是那裡出了問題？中央要拼經濟，救台灣，如何拼法呢？ 過去台灣經濟不好時，政府總會提出振興投資方案、擴大內需政策-等，建立在什麼觀點上？你認為成效又如何？ 增加一元的投資支出或政府支出，可創造比一元還多的產出或所得，可能嗎？為何？ 決定家計消費支出的因素為何？決定企業投資的關鍵又如何？ 節儉是美德嗎？一經濟社會人們想增加儲蓄，是否整個經濟社會儲蓄水準就會增加？ 政府財政政策，如何能達到經濟穩定的目的？利用何種財政工具？ 國外經濟不景氣，台灣經濟跟著不好，如何說明這種現象？,3,簡單凱因斯模型-理論基礎,依據：凱因斯1936年就業、利息與貨幣的一般理論，1930年代經濟大恐慌提出。 是需要面經濟學，主要說明失業為何產生及如何解決失業問題。 當時勞動未充分就業，工資又無法向下調整，使企業缺乏增加勞動雇用的誘因。 解決失業問題之法在提高

2、總需求，貨暢其流，東西有銷路，生產增加，勞動需求自然增加。 古典經濟學：是供給面經濟學，經由自由市場的價格機能，經濟常處於充分就業狀態，資本、技術、勞動供給量等生產能量決定總供給，總需求只影響物價水準而已。 模式：依總合供需圖而言 凱因斯學派AS水平，產出與就業決定於總需求。 古典學派AS垂直，產出與就業決定於總供給，總需求只影響物價水準。 中間區AS正斜率，總需求與總供給共同決定產出、就業與物價。 假定：物價不變，不計利率或金融(貨幣)面的作用(本章) 主旨：民間消費、企業投資、政府支出、對外貿易如何影響一國所得,4,3-1 The Composition of GDP,5,3-1 The Composition of GDP,Consumption (C) refers to the goods and services purchased by consumers. Investment (I), sometimes called fixed investment, is the purchase of capital goods. It is the sum of nonres

3、idential investment and residential investment. Government Spending (G) refers to the purchases of goods and services by the federal, state, and local governments. It does not include government transfers, nor interest payments on the government debt.,6,3-1 The Composition of GDP,Imports (IM) are the purchases of foreign goods and services by consumers, business firms, and the U.S. government. Exports (X) are the purchases of U.S. goods and services by foreigners.,7,3-1 The Composition of GDP,In

4、ventory investment is the difference between production and sales.,Net exports (X IM) is the difference between exports and imports, also called the trade balance.,8,3-2 The Demand for Goods,The total demand for goods is written as:,The symbol “” means that this equation is an identity, or definition.,To determine Z, some simplifications must be made: Assume that all firms produce the same good, which can then be used by consumers for consumption, by firms for investment, or by the government.,9

5、,3-2 The Demand for Goods,Assume that firms are willing to supply any amount of the good at a given price, P, and demand in that market. Assume that the economy is closed, that it does not trade with the rest of the world, then both exports and imports are zero. Under the assumption that the economy is closed, X = IM = 0, then:,10,3-2 The Demand for Goods,Disposable income, (YD), is the income that remains once consumers have paid taxes and received transfers from the government.,The function C(

6、YD) is called the consumption function. It is a behavioral equation, that is, it captures the behavior of consumers.,Consumption (C),A more specific form of the consumption function is this linear relation:,11,簡單凱因斯模型民間消費與儲蓄,影響消費支出的因素：可支配所得、利率、未來預期、資產或財富多寡、物價水準、貸款信用的條件與數量、所得分配狀況、家庭人口數與年齡結構。 消費支出與可支配所得關係：凱恩斯提出消費基本心理法則(fundamental psychological law) 所得增加消費支出增加；但消費額增量小於所得增量；且隨所得增加，平均消費額下降。 消費函數：Cco c1YD，Co是自發性消費、 c1YD 是誘發性消費，0c11。 消費傾向：邊際消費傾向(MPC)C/YD c 平均消費傾向(APC)C/YD (co /YD )c1MPC 儲蓄函數：SYD C co

7、(1 c1) YD ， MPSS/YD ，APSS/YD 消費傾向與儲蓄傾向關係：MPCMPS1，APCAPS1,12,可支配所得、消費、儲蓄,單位：萬元,13,3-2 The Demand for Goods,This function has two parameters, c0 and c1: c1 is called the (marginal) propensity to consume, or the effect of an additional dollar of disposable income on consumption. c0 is the intercept of the consumption function. Disposable income is given by:,Consumption (C),14,3-2 The Demand for Goods,Consumption (C),Consumption increases with disposable income but less than one for one.,15,3-2 The

8、Demand for Goods,Variables that depend on other variables within the model are called endogenous. Variables that are not explain within the model are called exogenous. Investment here is taken as given, or treated as an exogenous variable:,Investment (I ),Government Spending (G),Government spending, G, together with taxes, T, describes fiscal policythe choice of taxes and spending by the government.,16,3-2 The Demand for Goods,We shall assume that G and T are also exogenous for two reasons: Gove

9、rnments do not behave with the same regularity as consumers or firms. Macroeconomists must think about the implications of alternative spending and tax decisions of the government.,17,簡單凱因斯模型投資支出,定義：投資指新資本財的購買，資本財含機械設備、建築物(合稱固定資本)，及存貨變動。 投資毛額投資淨額資本折舊，Kt1KtIt(投資毛額)DtKtInt(投資淨額) 影響投資需求因素：最適投資量決定於投資的邊際收益邊際成本 成本方面利率(投資的機會成本)下降、資本財價格下降，投資需求增加；反之，則減少。 收益方面產品未來銷售量或價格看好、技術改良或創新出現、資本設備利用率高、生產成本降低、稅捐減輕，投資需求增加；反之，則減少。 (政府公共投資有助於改善投資環境，而降低民間生產成本，提高民間投資意願；但擴大支出以發行大量公債支應，可能刺激利率上揚，不利民間投資。) 投資函數：II(i，Y) ，i是利率，Y是所得,18,3-3 The Determination of Equilibrium Output,Assuming that exports and imports are both zero, the demand for goods is the sum of consumption, investment, and government spending:,Then:,19,Equilibrium in the goods market requires that production, Y, be equal to the demand for goods, Z:,Then:,The equilibrium condition is that, production, Y, be equal to demand. Demand, Z, in turn depends on income, Y, which itself is equal to productio

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