{决策管理}作为决策者的管理者讲义

1、Chapter7MANAGERS AS DECISION MAKERS,第7章 作为决策者的管理者,工商管理专业 15011503017 王瑞平,LEARNING OUTCOMES,7.1 Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process 描述决策制定过程中的八个步骤 7.2 Explain the four ways managers make decisions 解释管理者制定决策的四种方法 7.3 Classify decisions and decision-making condition 划分决策和决策条件的类型 7.4 Describe different decision-making styles and discuss how biases affect decision making 描述不同的决策风格并讨论各种偏见如何影响决策 7.5 Identify effective decision-making techniques 识别有效的决策技巧,7.1 The Decision-Making Proc

2、ess 7.1 决策制定过程,7.1 The Decision-Making Process,Decision making is the essence of management. 制定决策是管理的本质。 And all managers would like to make good decisions because theyre judged on the outcomes of those decisions. 所有的管理者都希望制定良好的决策，因为组织和外界是根据这些决策的结果来判断和评价他们的。 you can see that decisions play an important role in what an organization has to do or is able to do. 你可以看到，决策对一个组织必须要做或能够做的事情发挥着重要作用。 Managers at all levels and in all areas of organizations make decisions.That is, they make choices. 管理者，无论

3、在组织中的哪个级别和哪个领域，都会制定决策。也就是说，他们会作出选择。 Making decisions isnt something that just managers do; all organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and the organization they work for. 制定决策并不仅仅是管理者的事情；组织中的所有成员都会作出决策，而这些决策会影响到他们的工作和所在的组织。,1.识别决策问题 2.确定决策标准 3.为决策标准分配权重 4.开发备择方案 5.分析备择方案 6.选择被择方案 7.实施被择方案 8.评估决策的效果,7.1.1 Step 1: Identifying a Problem7.1.1 步骤1：确定一个问题,Your team is dysfunctional, your customers are leaving, or your plans are no longer relevant. 你的团队变得功能紊乱，你的客户正在离你而去，或者你的计划再也无法有

4、效实施。 Every decision starts with a problem, a discrepancy between an existing and a desired condition. 每一项决策都始于一个问题，即现有状况和预期状况之间的不一致。 Managers also have to be cautious not to confuse problems with symptoms of the problem. 管理者必须采取小心谨慎的态度，以免把问题与问题的症状相混淆。 Is a 5 percent drop in sales a problem? 销售额下降5个百分点是一个问题吗？,Or are declining sales merely a symptom of the real problem, such as poor-quality products, high prices, or bad advertising? 或者说，不断下降的销售额是否只是某个问题（例如低劣的产品质量、高昂的价格或者糟糕的广告）的一种症状？ Also, keep in

5、mind that problem identification is subjective. 此外，需要记住的是，问题的确认是主观的。 What one manager considers a problem might not be considered a problem by another manager. 某位管理者认为这是一个问题，而另一位管理者则可能认为这不是问题。 In addition, a manager who resolves the wrong problem perfectly is likely to perform just as poorly as the manager who doesnt even recognize a problem and does nothing. 此外，如果二位管理者完美地解决了一个错误的问题，其效果可能完全等同于这位管理者没有发现问题并因此什么也没做。 As you can see, effectively identifying problems is important, but not easy. 你会发现，有

6、效地确定问题非常重要，但并不容易。,7.1.2 Step 287.1.2 步骤28,Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria： 步骤2：确定决策标准 Every decision maker has criteria guiding his or her decisions even if theyre not explicitly stated. 每位决策者都有一些标准来指导自己的决策，即便这些标准并没有明确阐述。 Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria： 步骤3：为各项标准分配权重 .A simple way is to give the most important criterion a weight of 10 and then assign weights to the rest using that standard 一种简单的方法是给予最重要的标准10分的权重，然后参照这个权重分数来为其他标准打分。 Step 4: Developing Alternatives： 步骤4：形成各种备选方案

7、The fourth step in the decision-making process requires the decision maker to list viable alternatives that could resolve the problem.In this step ,a decision maker need to be creative. 决策制定过程的第4个步骤要求决策者列举出切实可行的被择方案。在这个步骤中决策者需要发挥想象力。,Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives： 步骤5：分析这些备选方案 Once alternatives have been identified, a decision maker must evaluate each one. How? By using the criteria established in Step 2. 一旦确定了所有的被择方案，决策者就必须对每一个被择方案进行评估。如何评估？通过使用在步骤2中确定的那些标准。 Step 6: Selecting an Alternative 步骤

8、6：选择一个方案 The fourth step in the decision-making process is choosing the best alternative or the one that generated the highest total in step 5. 决策制定的第6个步骤是选择最佳的被择方案，或者是选择在第5个步骤中获得最高分的那个被择方案。 Step 7: Implementing the Alternative 步骤7：实施该方案 In step 7 in the decision-making process ,you put the deciaion into action by conveying it to those affected and getting their commitment to it. 在决策制定的第7个步骤，你将这项方案传达给那些受影响的人并获得他们的认同，从而将该项措施付诸实践。,Step 8: Evaluating Decision Effectiveness 步骤8：评估决策的效果 The last step

9、 in decision-making process involves evaluating the outcome or result of the decision to see whether the problem was resolved。If the evaluation shows that the prooblem still exists, then the manager needs to assess what went wrong. Was the problem incorrectly defined? Were errors made when evaluating alternatives? Was the right alternative selected but poorly implemented?The answers might lead you to redo an earlier step or might even require starting the whole process over. 决策制定过程的最后一个步骤是评估该项决策的后果或者结果以检查问题是否得到解决。如果评估表明该问题依然存在，那么管理者需要判断哪里出错了。问题是不是没有被正确定义？在对各被择方案评估时是否出现了错误？选择的正确方案是否有效实施？这些方案可能会指引你重新实施某个先前的步骤，或者需要重新开始整个过程。,7.2 Managers Making Decisions 7.2 管理者制定决策,Decisions Managers May Make,7.2.1 Making Decisions: Rationality7.2.1 制定决策：理性,When Hewlett-Packard (HP) acquired Compaq, the company did no research on how customers viewed Compaq products until “months after then-CEO Carly Fiorina publicly announced the deal and privately warned her top m

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