欧洲咖啡市场形势.pdf

European Coffee Market SituationMick WheelerCoffee in EuropeThe UN classifies Europe as comprising 49 countries, with an estimated population of 728 million, but wikipedia lists 50 countries with a population of over 800 million, while others go as high as 53 depending upon your definition of a sovereign state27 countries belong to the European Union with an estimated population of 497 million.So there is a need to be careful with generalisations about “Europe”. In the main I will concentrate on the EU plus Switzerland and Norway, but will also cover Eastern Europe where I can.Coffee in EuropeSo let me start by giving you a snapshot of the coffee situation in EuropeConsumption in Western Europe amounts to 40.3 million bags (2.4 million tons).Consumption in Eastern Europe amounts to 6.6 million bags (396,000 tons)Coffee in EuropeCoffee Consumption in Europe20052006200720082009Western Europe Of which42,12442,86342,47941,57140,302France5,1135,2785,6285,1525,568 Germany8,9139,1518,6279,5358,897Italy5,4845,5935,8215,8925,835 Eastern Europe 6,1206,1957,2117,5896,586Total48,24449,05849,69048,16046,888Coffee in EuropeGross Imports of all forms of coffee into Western Europe totalled 51.6 million bags including inter regional trade; However re‐exports to countries outside this area totalled approximately 4.5 million bags.Cross boarder trade within the EU makes individual country statistics somewhat suspect, although Eurostat and ICO figures are reasonably good , but you must always accept are never complete.Inter EU trade of all forms of coffee total around 12 million bagsCoffee in EuropeEU IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GREEN COFFEE AND (SEMI) FINISHED PRODUCTS FROM NON‐EU ORIGINS TO NON‐EU DESTINATIONS – 2009 (‘000 Bags)ImportExportGreen Coffee44,756256Green Coffee – Decaffeinated421,350Roasted Coffee4091,175Roasted Coffee – Decaffeinated4254Soluble684654Total45,9343,498Coffee in EuropeConsumption in Western Europe is dominated by roasted coffee, which accounts for around 85% of consumption.Soluble coffee consumption has remained relatively steady at around 6 million bags for the past 10 yearsCoffee in Europe05101520253035404550200120022003200420052006200720082009million bagsConsumption in Western EuropeSolubleRoastedDiappearance Coffee in EuropeConsumption varies from country to country; As does blending, preparation, and usage; Depends on tradition, habits taste and historical ties; However the situation is changing as smaller roasters become larger and challenge established market brands throughout Europe.Coffee in EuropeDisappearance02000400060008000100001200020052006200720082009Coffee Consumption in Europe FranceCoffee Consumption in Europe GermanyCoffee Consumption in Europe ItalyCoffee Consumption in Europe Eastern EuropeCoffee in EuropePer Capita Consumption in Europe20002003200620082009European Community5.145.055.004.834.67Finland11.2611.1911.9412.6211.92Denmark8.818.089.097.717.89Sweden8.007.918.668.297.35Germany6.706.646.666.956.50France5.505.455.164.985.36Italy5.365.735.695.985.85Latvia2.844.384.763.062.35 United Kingdom2.372.213.033.013.14Coffee in EuropeRetail Prices in selected markets – June0200400600800100012001400160018002000200820092010FranceGermanyItalySwedenUKCoffee in EuropeThe statistics clearly show that consumption in the Western European coffee market is at best stagnating, but at worst, in a state of real decline. Nevertheless the situation is mixed and there are some bright spots, unfortunately too few.Many analysts argue that the decline in consumption can be attributed to a deterioration in quality. And the evolution of retail prices suggests that quality is being compromised in the pursuit of lower Prices.Coffee in EuropeHowever is there any evidence to support this claim?Coffee in Europe0510152025303540Colombian MildsOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsRobustasPercentagePercentage of European Imports by type200020042009Coffee in EuropeSupply by Groups0102030405060Colombian MildsOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsRobustas200020042009Coffee in EuropeYes, the pattern of consumption in Europe has reflected changes in the pattern of supply, but only partially so, for there can also be no doubt that at the same time there has been a definite shift towards the greater use of robusta and Brazilian Natural coffees.But this is not the whole story.Coffee in EuropeThe market has in fact become more divided – with an increase in the consumption of lower priced mainstream products – but at the same time a clear move towards more value added products.Coffee in EuropeEuropean Market Shares 1993 – 20080%5%10%15%20%199320052008Coffee in EuropeThe evidence that there has been a clear shift towards valued added products or maybe I could use the term speciality, is, unfortunately, not particularly concise. In fact, it is a bit of a mish‐mash, but put together, they help to paint a picture of a sector, which is showing clear signs of vibrant growth, mainly at the exp。