城市扩张的时空建模.pdf

Modelling Spatial on the other, most of this is being accompanied by both poverty and environmental degradation, e.g. encroachment on valuable agricultural land, increasing use of the private car and energy consumption, inner-city decline, premature write-down and under-utilisation of the existing built environment. The impacts of land use changes on environmental sustainability will become globally significant through their cumulative effects. This is considered to be one of the major global change issues (Vitousek, 1994). Chapter 1 2 Faced with the severe negative impacts, urban planners need to rethink the most important development policies and manage urban sprawl and urban growth more scientifically in the future. For instance, in the USA, urban sprawl has sparked off a national debate over land use policy that includes smart growth management and growth boundary measures (Brueckner, 2000). In developing countries such as India (Thangavel, 2000) and China (Yeh and Li, 2001b), patterns of urban growth (compact or sprawling) have been studied in the context of their special social and economic circumstances. There is no universal solution. However, it is recognised that scientific management and planning should be based on a proper understanding of the spatial and temporal processes of urban growth. This is the major objective of modelling spatial and temporal urban growth. 1.1.2 Scientific relevance Theoretically, urban growth modelling should be considered as an interdisciplinary field as it involves numerous scientific and technical areas, e.g. geographical information science (GIS), remote sensing (RS), urban geography, complexity theory, land use/cover modelling etc. Understanding urban growth and applying this knowledge for planning are both closely linked with these areas. Hence, a systematic and “holistic“ perspective should be adopted in the process of modelling. (1) Complexity Complexity theory has become a hot topic across all scientific disciplines, especially in the 21st century (Batty and Torrens, 2001). Its overall objective is to define some general properties of the complex systems involved. It is applied in various disciplines and findings are exchanged. Its progress can provide many disciplines with philosophically innovative ideas, but it also needs new research, development and application. There is a growing body of literature that views the city as a complex system (Allen, 1997a; Batty and Longley, 1994; Portugali and Benenson, 1995). Urban growth is in essence a complex subsystem; it involves multiple actors with differing patterns of behaviour at various spatial and temporal scales. It centres on understanding the dynamic interactions between the socio-economic and built environments and major natural environmental impacts. Complexity in the domain of urban growth can be divided into such classes as spatial, temporal and decision-making processes (as described in chapter 2 of this dissertation). Because of their size of operation, complex systems are difficult to understand without building models. Modelling spatial and temporal urban growth helps to identify the complexity hidden in its processes and provides urban development planning and land management with new theoretical concepts and methods. (2) Land use change modelling Under the umbrella of sustainable development (e.g. the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Introduction 3Environmental Change (IHDP) and NASA's Land Cover and Land Use Change Program), land use/cover change (LUCC) has attracted a great deal of attention. It spans the global, national, regional and local levels and is interdisciplinary in nature, with agricultural, ecological, landscape, forest and urban sub-themes. This research considers the complex interactions between land use/cover change and other systems, such as the impacts of change on ecological systems and vice versa. A systematic understanding of land use/cover change needs individual cases at different geographical levels and from a range of disciplines. Urban growth results from the transition from non-urban into urban land uses, both physically and functionally. In this land use/cover change, the human dimension is important. The outcome is a result of the interaction between natural and human systems. Land use/cover modelling aims at quantitatively specifying the mechanisms of the physical and functional transitions of the land system and interprets the causal effects hidden in its processes (Agarwal et al., 2000). Modelling spatial and temporal urban growth is a way of exploring the spatial and temporal patterns and processes of land use/cover transition at the level of urban landscape. They are able to provide quantitative evidence to aid decisi。