全球航空市场展望2015.pdf

Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.∙ 1CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK 2015–2034CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK 2015–2034CURRENT MA 2015–20344 ∙ Outlook on a pageOUTLOOK ON A PAGEOutlook on a page ∙ 5RegionAsiaNorth AmericaEuropeMiddle EastLatin AmericaC.I.S.AfricaWorldWorld Economy (GDP %)4.3%2.5%1.8%3.8%3.4%2.4%4.5%3.1%Airline Traffic (RPK %)6.1%3.1%3.8%6.2%6.0%3.7%5.7%4.9%Cargo Traffic (RTK %)5.7%2.9%3.1%6.3%5.5%3.7%6.9%4.7%Airplane Fleet (%)5.2%1.7%2.7%5.2%4.6%1.9%4.5%3.6%Market SizeDeliveries 14,330 7,890 7,310 3,180 3,020 1,150 1,170 38,050 Market Value ($B) 2,200 940 1,050 730 350 140 160 5,570 Average Value ($M)150120140230120120140150Unit Share38%21%19%8%8%3%3%100%Value Share39%17%19%13%6%3%3%100%New Airplane DeliveriesLarge Widebody 140 20 40 300 - 40 - 540 Medium Widebody 1,530 490 510 880 30 40 40 3,520 Small Widebody 1,920 690 910 560 310 120 260 4,770 Single Aisle 10,370 5,070 5,770 1,410 2,520 760 830 26,730 Regional Jets 370 1,620 80 30 160 190 40 2,490 Total 14,330 7,890 7,310 3,180 3,020 1,150 1,170 38,050 Market Value (2014 $B catalog prices)Large Widebody 60 10 20 130 - 10 - 230 Medium Widebody 520 170 180 310 10 20 10 1,220 Small Widebody 500 170 250 150 90 30 60 1,250 Single Aisle 1,110 520 600 140 240 70 90 2,770 Regional Jets 10 70 - 0 10 10 0 100 Total 2,200 940 1,050 730 350 140 160 5,570 2014 FleetLarge Widebody 280 100 180 110 - 60 10 740 Medium Widebody 530 320 350 300 30 30 60 1,620 Small Widebody 780 730 380 250 130 170 80 2,520 Single Aisle 4,130 3,850 3,240 540 1,220 730 430 14,140 Regional Jets 130 1,700 300 60 90 190 110 2,580 Total 5,850 6,700 4,450 1,260 1,470 1,180 690 21,600 2034 FleetLarge Wide-body 180 60 100 260 - 70 - 670 Medium Wide-body 1,620 530 550 900 40 90 70 3,800 Small Wide-body 2,270 910 1,070 660 380 210 300 5,800 Single Aisle 11,730 6,190 5,730 1,600 3,020 1,140 1,220 30,630 Regional Jets 380 1,660 110 60 180 210 60 2,660 Total 16,180 9,350 7,560 3,480 3,620 1,720 1,650 43,560 DELIVERIES BY AIRPLANE SIZE AND REGION6 ∙ Long-Term OutlookLONG-TERM OUTLOOKLong-Term Outlook ∙ 7LONG-TERM OUTLOOKYEAR IN REVIEWFor the aviation industry, 2014 was an outstanding year—key metrics increased across the board, and we will continue to see this trend, with lower oil prices expected to save the industry tens of billions of dollars in 2015 alone. Passenger traffic as measured by revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) was up nearly six percent in 2014, and capacity was up nearly 5.8 percent. The result was record load factors of almost 80 percent worldwide. Airlines continued using their airplanes more efficiently, as demonstrated by utilization rates that were 15 percent higher than those of a decade earlier.Because of lower oil prices and various increased efficiencies, airlines had profits of US$20 billion during 2014, which was also a record year for airplane manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus. Over 1,490 jet airplanes were delivered, and airlines ordered approximately 3,680 new airplanes.MARKET FORCESGlobal economic expansion is expected to continue, and although the overall picture is good, there will be regional challenges. North America is leading the economic global acceleration, and the Eurozone is finally starting to gain economic momentum. In the past, emerging markets have driven economic growth, but we are now starting to see some regional divergence from this trend. Based on these and other market indicators, our near-term 2015 forecast is for RPK growth to exceed six percent, with cargo traffic growth accelerating above five percent. The bottom line is that with a favorable cost environment and strengthening demand, many airlines will see opportunities for record profits in 2015.EFFECTS OF MARKET FORCESOur long-term outlook incorporates the effects of market forces on the growth of the aviation industry. Based on what has happened historically and what is expected to occur, world GDP is anticipated to grow at 3.1 percent annually over the next 20 years. During the same period, passenger traffic is forecast to grow by 4.9 percent and air cargo traffic by 4.7 percent.SHAPE OF THE MARKETOver the next 20 years, we are forecasting a need for 38,050 airplanes valued at more than $5.6 trillion. Aviation is becoming more diverse, with approximately 40 percent of all new airplanes being delivered to airlines based in the Asia Pacific region. An additional 20 percent will be delivered to airlines in Europe and North America, with the remaining 20 percent to be delivered to the Middle East, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Africa.Single-aisle airplanes command the largest share of new deliveries, with airlines needing approximately 26,730. These new airplanes will continue to stimulate growth for low-cost ECONOMIC EXPANSIONABOVE-TREND GROWTHLOWER OIL PRIC。