高盛香港房地产市场租金增长紧跟零售业快速复苏步伐

1、Fast retail sales pace growth to continue Our Hong Kong retail team has revised up its estimates for 2018E inbound visitor and retail sales growth to 7% and 8% yoy, vs 3% and 2% in 2017, on the back of favorable currency trends, resilient China consumption sentiment, and companies improved controls over store expansion and product mix enhancement. Our retail team sees near-term data points remaining solid into the June 2018 quarter, including airline booking data, FX trends, and various consumer

2、 companies comments on latest trends.Broad-based recovery in both tourist and domestic spending Growth in both overnight (+13%) and same-day (+14%) Chinese arrivals has propelled a faster uptick in tourist spending YTD, and in addition, we also highlight a pick-up in growth on the domestic consumption front. Breaking down the c.10% yoy growth in Hong Kong retail sales in the three-month period to Feb 2018, we note that c.7 pp was from tourist spending, and c.3pp from domestic consumption (vs lar

3、gely flattish growth for the preceding year), which together have more than offset a negative c.5pp one-off swing (mostly motor vehicle sales).Prime shopping mall rents set to rise: Initiate Wharf REIC at Buy, upgrade Hysan to Neutral CBRE estimates a 0.3% qoq increase for high street shop rents in Hong Kong in 1Q18, marking the first increase in the past five years. We believe that a faster and broader retail sales recovery, coupled with stabilizing high street shop rents, will set the stage fo

4、r prime shopping malls rents to resume growth. We now model 7% retail spot rent growth p.a. in 2018E/19E.We are turning more positive on landlords with retail exposure. We initiate Wharf REIC at Buy for its direct access to quality retail properties with higher-than-peer exposure to tourism spending, track record in delivering better-than-market tenant sales growth, and already improved OCR situation as of end-2017. We also upgrade Hysan Development from Sell to Neutral on the back of a better p

5、ick-up in domestic spending. Key risks to our medium-term positive stance on HK retail rents include changes in government policies, visitor spending behavior, and potential new competition.+852-2978-0481 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Colin Yao +65-6654-5426 | Goldman Sachs (Singapore) PteMichelle Cheng +852-2978-6631 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may

6、have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Justin Kwok, CFA25 April 2018 | 2:25AM HKTHong Kong Real Estate: Retail Rental growth to follow a faster pace of r

7、etail sales recovery; Buy Wharf REICFor the exc lusi ve use of DAI .YO NG YI I CB CCS .CO M. CNGoldman SachsHong Kong Real Estate: Retail25 April 2018Key publications on Hong Kong and regional real estate Hong Kong Real Estate: Transition from value trap to yield appeal on accelerated shift to rental income; CL-Buy CKP, May5, 2016 Asia Pacific Real Estate Reflections: Adapting to a new cityscape, Nov 14, 2016Hong Kong Real Estate: HK 2030+: Study suggests developable land shortage could remain a

8、 structural issue into 2041,Dec 12, 2016 Hong Kong Real Estate: Year of the ROOSTER: Shares largely range-bound, but segmental divergences can drive alpha,Feb 21, 2017 Asia Real Estate Reflections: REITs Goldilocks Conundrum regional REITs, Jun 26, 2017 Hong Kong Real Estate Office: Jewel of the bay, Oct 9, 2017Sun Hung Kai Properties: The Asia Stock Collection: Strong offense with a solid defense; add to CL, Feb 5, 2018 Hong Kong Real Estate: Year of the Dog: Waiting to bite the hand that feeds

9、 you? Feb 26, 2018Exhibit 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Valuation summaryBVPSCur. P/BUnderlying P/E (X)Div Yield (%)Abs. perfomance %FY endRatingPrice(HK$)12-mo TP (HK$)Potential% Upside/ downsideFwd NAV(HK$)Prem/(Disc)%5-year NAV disc. historyPeak+1s.d.Avg.-1s.d.TroughLast rpt (x)FY17AFY18EFY19EFY17AFY18E FY19E1-mo3-moYTDProperty companiesSHKP0016.HKJunBuy*121.90167.0037.0216.68(44) (22) (30) (37) (44) (51) 182.00.671412123.4 3.6 3.9(4)(9)(7)Sino Land0083.HKJunBuy13.0617.0030.224.24(46) (21) (27) (34) (41) (48) 21.40.6115774.1 7.5 4.10(11)(6)Hongkong Land (US$)HKLD.SIDecBuy7.139.2029.011.51(38) (4) (16) (26) (35) (42) 14.50.491919192.8 2.8 2.8311Swire Prop1972.HKDecBuy27.6032.3017.040.39(32) (4) (18) (29) (39) (44) 44.00.632121212.8 2.6 2.6(2)310Wharf REIC1997.HKDecBuy54.1565.0020.08

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