电力市场报告（英）-2021.7

Electricity Market Report July 2021 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States IEA association countries: Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org Abstract Electricity Market Report – July 2021 Abstract When the IEA published its first Electricity Market Report in December 2020, large parts of the world were in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic and its resulting lockdowns. Half a year later, electricity demand around the world is rebounding or even exceeding pre-pandemic levels, especially in emerging and developing economies. But the situation remains volatile, with Covid-19 still causing disruptions. Despite record additions of renewable generation capacity, fossil fuel-based generation and associated emissions are rising along with electricity demand. This mid-2021 edition of the Electricity Market Report highlights recent developments and forecasts demand, capacity, supply and emissions through 2022. The report also analyses electricity market prices and electricity security. PAGE | 1 Executive summary Electricity Market Report – July 2021 Executive summary PAGE | 2 Executive summary Electricity Market Report – July 2021 Executive summary Global electricity demand will rebound strongly in 2021 and 2022. After falling by around 1% in 2020, global electricity demand is set to grow by close to 5% in 2021 and by 4% in 2022. The majority of these increases will take place in the Asia Pacific region. More than half of global growth in 2022 will occur in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”), the world’s largest electricity consumer. India, the third-largest consumer, will account for 9% of global growth. a smaller role in the fast-growing Asia Pacific region, and as it faces increasing competition from renewables in the United States and Europe. CO emissions from the electricity sector are set to increase in 2 2021 and 2022. After falling by 1% in 2019 and by 3.5% in 2020, CO2 emissions from the electricity sector are forecast to increase by 3.5% in 2021 and by 2.5% in 2022, which would take them to an all- time high. The decline in the emissions intensity of global electricity generation slows from more than 3% in 2020 to around 1% in 2021 and 2022. Renewable electricity generation continues to grow strongly – but cannot keep up with increasing demand. After expanding by 7% in 2020, electricity generation from renewables is forecast to increase by 8% in 2021 and by more than 6% in 2022. Despite these rapid increases, renewables are expected to be able to serve only around half of the projected growth in global demand in 2021 and 2022. Nuclear power generation will grow by around 1% in 2021 and by 2% in 2022. Stronger policy actions are needed to reach climate goals. In the IEA Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, nearly three- quarters of emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 take place in the power sector, where emissions decline by 4.4% per year on average. To achieve this decline, coal-fired electricity generation needs to fall by more than 6% a year, partially replaced by gas, which grows by around 5% a year. Fossil fuel-based electricity is set to cover 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022. Coal-fired electricity Wholesale electricity prices have recovered. The IEA Wholesale Electricity Market Price Index, which tracks price movements in major advanced economies, shows that prices were 54% higher in the first half of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020. This is after average prices for the full year 2020 declined by 25% generation, after declin