某咨询加州电力危机咨询(英)
15页1、Lightening Strikes Twice: California Faces a Real Risk of A Second Power CrisisLake Tahoe Energy ConferenceJuly 30, 2004CONFIDENTIALThisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.Taking The Right Steps To Ensure A Powerful Future5 steps that will ensure a long-term
2、sustainable market for powerTHE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CRISIS, BUT 5 KEY STEPS WILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKETAction needs to be taken today to prevent another energy crisis1. Newgenerationneedstobebuilttoday,giventhelongleadtime,andamechanismformarket-basedcontractswithutilitiesneedstobeintroduced2. Californiashouldintroducemandatorytime-of-usemeteringforallclassesofcustomers3. Newtransmissionneedstobebuiltandfacilitatedthroughaexpeditedandcoordinatedapprovalprocessbyt
3、hePUC,ISO,CEC,andFERC4. Aformalcapacitymarketcombinedwithamandatoryplanningreservetarget(e.g.,15-20%)needstobeinplaceby20065. TheStateshouldre-introduceelementsofretailchoice,providinganopportunityforlargeconsumerstoshopforpowerCECestimatesindicatethatoperatingreservescoulddropbelowtypical“emergencylevelsifwehaveahotsummerUnfortunately,theCECsdemandestimatesappearlowrelativetotrendanda“highdemandcase(i.e.,hotsummer)maybeaslikelyasa1-in-5occurrenceTakingintoaccountrealisticlevelsoffuturedemand,op
4、eratingreservescouldbeextremelytightby2006aslowas5.8%(ina1-in-5yeardemandcase)1THE STATES ENERGY AGENCIES PROJECT A NEAR-TERM RISK OF LOW RESERVE MARGINS IN A HOT YEAR*Operatingreservemargincalculatedas(AvailableSupplyPeakDemand)/(PeakDemand)Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission(July8,2004updatetoJune24,2004report)1-in-10year(hot)1-in-2year(average)CECESTIMATESAugust2005August2006August2007August2021Projected California state operating reserve margin*PercentAugust20047% target = Stage One emergency
5、level5% target = Stage Two emergency levelReserve margins consistently drop beginning in 2006Demand2ENERGY AGENCY FORECASTS OF FUTURE DEMAND ARE OPTIMISTIC COMPARED TO ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONSESTIMATESOF1-IN-2YEARPEAKDEMANDPeak demand (average weather), after conservationGW*Regressionprojectionbasedonhistoricweather,historicGSP,currentGSPprojections(5.6%),andaverageweather*BasedonhistoricCAGRforpeakdemandgrowthbeforeincludingconservation(underlyinggrowthof1.88%for1983-2003)andadjustedforexpected2
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