若汇率贬值持续，谁将受益.pdf
11页
——???????? ?????????? ? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ? ?????????????????????????? 20%????????????????????? GDP??????2012-2014 ???????? GDP ??? 0.13%?-0.19%? 0.12%????????????????????????????????? GDP ?????????? ??????????????????????????????? 20%???2015 ?????????? GDP ??? 25.56%???????? 11.9%??????????????????????? ? ??? ??????????????????????????? ????????????????????????? 2015??????????? 1.68 ? 2.27 ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????? ? ???????????????????? 2015 ??????? 2846 ??????????????? 1527 ???????????????? 53.6%???????????????????????????????????? 2.23 ??????? 8.67%??????????????????????????????? 43.86%?????????????????????????????? 20%? ? ?????????????????????????????????????? 56 ???? ?????????????????????????? ???? ?????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ???????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ? ??????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????3.1 ???????????????????????????????? ..................................5 3.2 ???????????????????????????????????????? .................7???????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????1???????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???? 1?????????????????????????????????? ???? 2???????? 12 ????NDF?????????????????? ?????Wind ?????Wind 2???????????????????????????????? 20%?????????????????? ?? GDP ??????????????????????2014 ???1.7%?2012-2014 ???????? GDP ??? 0.13%?-0.19%? 0.12%????????????????????????????? 66.16.26.36.46.56.66.76.82015-03-162015-04-162015-05-162015-06-162015-07-162015-08-162015-09-162015-10-162015-11-162015-12-162016-01-162016-02-162016-03-162016-04-16???:??????????:??????6.006.206.406.606.807.007.20??????:NDF:12??????:??????4 ???? 3????????????????????GDP?????????? ??%?? ???? 4??????????????GDP????????????????????%?? ?????Wind ?????Wind ???? GDP ?????????? ?????????????????? ??????????????????? ? 2012 ????? 20%???? 20.81%? 2015 ?????????? GDP ??? 25.56%???????? 11.9%??????????????????????? ???? 5???????????????????????????????????? 20%???? ???? 6????????????GDP??????????2015 ???? ?????Wind ?????Wind -100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014GDP?????:??????GDP?????:??????GDP?????:????????-6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 ?GDP?????:???????GDP?????:???????GDP?????:????????18.48%20.75%20.88%27.73%28.25%22.28% 20.81%15.00%17.00%19.00%21.00%23.00%25.00%27.00%29.00%31.00%1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012?????????68.40%50.81%16.48%46.45%18.17%11.90%25.56%-14.95%-22.82%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%?????????????????????????????????????3?????????????????????????????????????????????? 3.1 ???????????????????????????????? 2015 ??????????? 1.68 ????? 2.27 ??????? 7 ??? SITC ?????????????????????????????????????? ?????? 76??????????????????75 ????????????????84 ?????????89 ?????????65 ??????????????????????????????????28 ???????????????????????????? ???? 7??2015 ????????????????????SITC???????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????1040?4730?4.57%?28.12%?(3690)? ?0 ? ???????582?505?2.56%?3.00%?77?00 ? ????6?5?0.03%?0.03%?0?01 ? ??????28?68?0.12%?0.40%?(40)?02 ? ??????3?32?0.01%?0.19%?(30)?03 ? ???????????????196?66?0.86%?0.39%?130?04 ? ???????13?103?0.06%?0.61%?(90)?05 ? ??????220?96?0.97%?0.57%?123?06 ? ?????????21?22?0.09%?0.13%?(1)?07 ? ????????????????33?15?0.15%?0.09%?18?08 ? ??(????????)?27?50?0.12%?0.30%?(23)?09 ? ?????36?48?0.16%?0.29%?(12)?1 ? ??????33?58?0.15%?0.34%?(25)?11 ? ???20?39?0.09%?0.23%?(20)?12 ? ???????14?19?0.06%?0.11%?(5)?2 ? ?????(????)?139?2105?0.61%?12.51%?(1965)?21 ? ???????0?40?0.00%?0.24%?(40)?22 ? ????????10?383?0.04%?2.28%?(373)?23 ? ???(???????????)?6?78?0.02%?0.47%?(73)?24 ? ??????9?174?0.04%?1.03%?(165)?25 ? ??????1?180?0.00%?1.07%?(179)?26 ? ?????????32?80?0.14%?0.47%?(48)?27 ? ???????(?? ???????)?31?56?0.13%?0.33%?(25)?28 ? ??????????3?1096?0.01%?6.51%?(1092)?29 ? ?????????47?17?0.21%?0.10%?30?3 ? ??????????????279?1988?1.23%?11.82%?(1709)?32 ? ????????20?121?0.09%?0.72%?(101)?33 ? ?????????????224?1614?0.99%?9.60%?(1390)?34 ? ????????20?249?0.09%?1.48%?(229)?35 ? ???14?3?0.06%?0.02%?11?4 ? ?????????6?75?0.03%?0.44%?(68)?41 ? ??????2?2?0.01%?0.01%?(0)?42 ? ????????3?71?0.01%?0.42%?(68)?43 ? ????????????????1?2?0.01%?0.01%?(0)????????21710?12089?95.43%?71.88%?9620?5 ? ??????????1296?1713?5.70%?10.19%?(417)?51 ? ??????365?483?1.61%?2.87%?(118)?52 ?。
