全球光伏市场展望2015-2019.pdf

Capt i on t o i mage.© SPE4FOREWORD FROM THE PRESI DENT AND THE CEO 3EXECUTI VE SUMMARY 51SOLAR POWER: TECHNOLOGY AND I NDUSTRY TRENDS 62GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET: UPDATE AND PROSPECTS 93THE EUROPEAN SOLAR MARKET: STATE OF PLAY AND OUTLOOK 184SOLAR I N THE EUROPEAN ELECTRI CI TY SYSTEM: A DEMO-PROJECT FOR THE WORLD 265AN OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 30TABLE OF CONTENTThe 540 GWmar k at a gl obal l evel c oul d be r eac hed i n f i ve year s ’ t i me.5The gl obal s ol ar phot ovol t ai c ( PV) s ect or exper i enc ed a new year of gr owt h i n 2014 r eachi ng a cumul at i ve capaci t y of 178 GW, mul t i pl yi ng t he i ns t al l ed c apaci t y by a f act or of 100 i n onl y 14 year s of devel opment .Thanks t o t he mas s i v e pr i c e decl i nes achi eved i n r ecent year s and c ont i nued i n 2014, s ol ar power i s now br oadl y r ecogni zed as a cos t - c ompet i t i v e, r el i abl e and s us t ai nabl e ener gy s our c e. I n f act , bas ed on i t s t echni c al char act er i s t i cs , PV c an and s houl d be c ons i der ed a l ow r i s k i nves t ment f or t he f i nanci al c ommuni t y t oday . I t s mar ket upt ake i s s t r ongl y dependent on a s t abl e and f or war d-l ooki ng r egul at or y f r amewor k t hat al l ows f or t he r eal i zat i on of t he f ul l compet i t i ve pot ent i al of s ol ar power .Some of the main f indings of our market analysis: •At l eas t 40 GW of PV s ys t ems wer e i ns t al l ed gl obal l y i n 2014, up f r om 37 GW i n 2013 s et t i ng a new r ec or d f or t he s ol ar PV s ect or•Chi na, Japan and USA wer e t he t hr ee t op mar ket s i n 2014•The 540 GW mar k at a gl obal l evel c oul d be r eached i n f i ve year s ’ t i me•7 GW of PV capaci t y wer e connect ed t o t he gr i d i n Eur ope i n 2014, compar ed t o 10.5 GW i n 2013 and 17.7 GW i n 2012 •For t he f i r s t t i me, t he Uni t ed Ki ngdom l ead t he devel opment of s ol ar power i n Eur ope wi t h 2.4 GW, f ol l owed by Ger many ( 1.9 GW) and Fr ance ( 927 MW)•Sol ar PV i s cover i ng mor e t han 7 % of t he el ect r i ci t y demand i n 3 count r i es i n Eur ope: I t al y , Ger many and Gr eec e•Sol ar Power c oul d gr ow i n Eur ope by 80 % by 2019The mar ket gr owt h exper i enced i n 2013 and 2014 al s o i mpr oved t he ut i l i zat i on r at es of manuf act ur i ng capaci t i es and gener al l y l ead t o a cont i nued r ec over y of t he i ndus t r y s ect or ar ound t he wor l d. Thi s r epor t pr es ent s f i gur es f or gr i d connect ed capaci t i es whi ch bes t des cr i be t he r ol e of s ol ar power i n t he ener gy s ys t em. Whi l e t hi s appr oach l eads t o 40 GW added i n 2014, anal ys es bas ed on modul e s hi pment s l ead t o hi gher number s , ar ound 44-46 GW. The di ffer ence bet ween t hes e t wo es t i mat i ons i s par t i al l y expl ai ned by i ns t al l at i ons t hat oc cur r ed at t he end of t he year and t hat wer e ei t her not r epor t ed or not c onnect ed yet .Two maps f or t he gl obal and Eur opean l evel f or m t he cent er pi ece of t hi s r epor t . A number of eas y-t o-gr as p i ndexes hi ghl i ght t he PV mar ket devel opment acr os s t he wor l d and i n Eur ope. The r epor t and al l f i gur es can be downl oaded on www. s ol ar power eur ope. or g EXECUTIVE SUMMARY178 GWof Sol ar Power ar e now i ns t al l ed i n t he wor l d.6 / The s uc c es s s t or y of mas s i ve c os t r educt i ons i n t he s ol ar power s ect or was c ont i nued i n 2014, bot h f or dec ent r al i s ed and ut i l i t y s cal e i ns t al l at i ons . PV s ys t em pr i c e decl i nes of ar ound 75% i n l es s t han 10 year s have br ought s ol ar power cl os e t o c os t c ompet i t i venes s i n s ever al c ount r i es and mar ket s egment s .I n par al l el wi t h t hi s devel opment , t he annual PV mar ket vol ume has mul t i pl i ed by 40 t i mes i n l es s t han a decade, and t he gl obal v al ue of t he PV s ect or wi l l pr obabl y r each t he l andmar k of 100 bi l l i on EUR i n 2015. Des pi t e t he l ow r i s k of f i nanci ng i nher ent t o t he t echnol ogy , acces s t o capi t al i s a major chal l enge f or a c ont i nuous l y gr owi ng s ect or . The i ndus t r y has cont i nued t o r ecover after t he s i gni f i cant pr es s ur e of over capaci t i es i n 2012 and 2013. Las t year , many manuf act ur er s of s ol ar c omponent s hav e b。