世界白银市场报告2011.pdf

 PricesPrices Demand Demand  SupplySupply Investment Investment  Outlook for Outlook for 20112011The Silver PriceThe Silver Price3540 US$/ozUS$/ozAverageAverageYearYear- -onon- - yearyearIntraIntra- - periodperiod3035yearyearperiodperiod2010201020.1920.1937.6%37.6%78.4%78.4% JanJan- -Mar 2011Mar 201131.8631.8688.2%88.2%23.5%23.5%25S$/oz1520US10155Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Source: Source: Thomson ReutersThomson ReutersUS Dollar and Euro PricesUS Dollar and Euro Prices3540 € €/oz/ozAverageAverageYearYear- -onon- - yearyearIntraIntra- - periodperiod3035/ozyearyearperiodperiod2010201015.2315.2344.6%44.6%92.0%92.0% JanJan- -Mar 2011Mar 201123.2023.2089.5%89.5%15.9%15.9%2025Euro € €/1520/oz andUS$510US$/Euro0Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Source: Source: Thomson ReutersThomson ReutersSilver, Gold and Base Metals PricesSilver, Gold and Base Metals Prices200220silver18020000)tin140160an 10=10nickel120ndex (Jacoppergold80100Inzinc60 Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11pSource: GFMS, Thomson Source: GFMS, Thomson ReutersReutersQuarterly Correlation of Daily Silver Quarterly Correlation of Daily Silver Prices Prices with Gold and Copper Priceswith Gold and Copper Prices1.0with Gold and Copper Priceswith Gold and Copper Prices0 60.8entGold0.40.6Coefficie0 00.2relation C-0.20.0CorrCopper-0.4 Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Source: Source: GFMSGFMS100Gold / Silver Ratio 1968Gold / Silver Ratio 1968- -20102010809010070805060AverageAverage 53:153:13040Average Average 53:153:110200196819731978198319881993199820032008Source: GFMS Ltd.Source: GFMS Ltd.Gold / Silver Ratio 2001Gold / Silver Ratio 2001– –20112011- -toto- -datedate (basis weekly average prices)(basis weekly average prices)90(basis weekly average prices)(basis weekly average prices)806070 Average 62:1Average 62:1506040Jan-Mar 2011 = 44:130 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: GFMS Ltd.Source: GFMS Ltd.Real and Nominal Silver PricesReal and Nominal Silver Prices (real US$ price in constant(real US$ price in constant 20102010 terms)terms) 60(real US$ price in constant (real US$ price in constant 2010 2010 terms)terms)1980 average: $1980 average: $55.5355.53 501980’s peak of $49.45 equals to 1980’s peak of $49.45 equals to over $130 in real 2010 termsover $130 in real 2010 terms3040$/oz20102010 average:average: $20 19$20 192030USReal PriceReal Price2010 2010 average: average: $20.19$20.1910Real PriceReal Price0 19751980198519901995200020052010Nominal PriceNominal Price19751980198519901995200020052010Source: GFMS, Thomson Source: GFMS, Thomson ReutersReuters PricesPrices DemandDemand SupplySupply Investment Investment  Outlook for Outlook for 20112011World Silver Fabrication World Silver Fabrication Demand in 2010Demand in 2010Total Fabrication Demand in 2010: +12.8% to 878.8 MozSilverwareCoins *includes MexicoMine ProductionMine Production World silver mine output rose by 2%, or 17.6 Moz last World silver mine output rose by 2%, or 17.6 Moz last year to a new record high of 735 9 Mozyear to a new record high of 735 9 Mozyear, to a new record high of 735.9 Moz.year, to a new record high of 735.9 Moz. An increase of 5% was recorded from both the lead/zinc An increase of 5% was recorded from both the lead/zinc and primary silver sectors.and primary silver sectors. Many increases came not from 2010 starts, but from theMany increases came not from 2010 starts, but from the Many increases came not from 2010 starts, but from the Many increases came not from 2010 starts, but from the build up of production at projects which began operations build up of production at projects which began operations in 2009 such as the Peñasquito sulfide plant andin 2009 such as the Peñasquito sulfide plant andin 2009, such as the Peñasquito sulfide plant and in 2009, such as the Peñasquito sulfide plant and Palmarejo. Palmarejo.  Largest gains seen in Mexico (+15.3 Moz), China (+10.0 Largest gains seen in Mexico (+15.3 Moz), China (+10.0 Moz) and also Australia (+7.4 Moz), with the most Moz) and also Australia (+7.4 Moz), with the most noticeable decline in Peru (noticeable decline in Peru (- -7.4 Moz). 7.4 Moz). Producer HedgingProducer Hedging 2010 saw a marked return to net producer hedging, with 2010 saw a marked return to net producer hedging, with a net 61 1 Moz of supply throughout the yearThe bulka net 61 1 Moz of supply throughout the yearThe bulkgggga net 61.1 Moz of supply throughout the year. The bulk a net 61.1 Moz of supply throughout the year. The bulk of this occurred in the fourth quarter.of this occurred in the fourth quarter.Ithih d idt d bbIthih d idt d bbdt ildt il In the main hedging was conducted by byIn the main hedging was conducted by by- -product silver product silver producers, to risk manage a nonproducers, to risk manage a non- -core revenue stream. core revenue stream. Ittddititthl b l h dbkfIttddititthl b l h dbkfImportant additions to the global hedge book see。