美的集团：基本面扎实，业绩领跑同行.pdf

???????? ???????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????? 2015H1 ?????? 825 ??????? 6.7%???????? 83.2 ? ?????? 25.9%?EPS 1.96 ??????????????????? ????? 88 ??????? 33%????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? ????????????? 428 ??????? 2.7%???????? ????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????+20%??????+23%? ??????????????????????+8.6%???????? ????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????? ???????????????????? 1.6 ????? 27.4%??? ????????? 1.5 ????? 10.0%?????????????? ?????? 18%????????????????????????? ????????? 2015 ??????????+0.25%???+9.6%?? ?????????????????? 27.3%??? 26%?? ??????????????????????“????”???? ???????? 2015-17 ? EPS ??? 3.04/3.60/4.25 ???? 3.09/3.69/4.39 ????????? 46 ???? 50 ?????????? VCAM ???????(WACC ??? 8.0%)????????? 2015 ? PE ? 9.5x???????????????????????????“??” ??? Equities ?? ????? 12???????? ???? ???????? 12?????????? Rmb46.00 ?????? Rmb50.00 ???? Rmb28.79 ????????: 000333.SZ ???????? 000333 CH ?????????????????? 52?????????????? Rmb40.58-19.56???? Rmb121??/US$19.0?? ?????????? 4,216?? (ORDA ) ?????????? 100%??????????(????) 41,830??????????(Rmb ????) Rmb1,438.3?????????????? (12/15E) Rmb48.1?? ?????? (12/15E) 2.5x?????? / EBITDA NM????????(UBS ??????)(Rmb) ?? ?? % ???????? 12/15E 3.09 3.04 -1.67 3.04 12/16E 3.69 3.60 -2.52 3.62 12/17E 4.39 4.25 -3.19 4.28 ???????? (Rmb????) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E ???????? 102,651 121,265 142,311 151,139 169,110 190,804 211,311 234,655 ??????????(UBS) 7,309 8,466 13,193 15,680 18,728 21,942 24,628 27,860 ?????? (UBS) 3,259 5,317 10,502 12,811 15,174 17,937 20,325 22,926 ????????(UBS ??????)(Rmb) 1.30 1.73 2.49 3.04 3.60 4.25 4.82 5.44 ???????? (Rmb) 2.03 2.00 1.00 1.52 1.80 2.13 2.41 2.72 ???? / (??????) 5,035 6,545 (892) 2,621 9,391 17,810 27,950 39,575 ?????????????? 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E ????????????(%) 7.1 7.0 9.3 10.4 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.9 ROIC (EBIT) (%) 26.4 29.8 35.5 33.3 36.0 39.3 41.5 44.4 EV/EBITDA(core)x 5.8 3.2 5.2 7.6 6.5 5.7 4.3 3.9 ?????? (UBS, ??????) (x) 3.4 5.1 8.0 9.5 8.0 6.8 6.0 5.3 ?????????????? (UBS) ?? ??? ? % 14.0 24.6 26.3 5.8 10.1 12.1 14.3 16.3 ????????????(%) 45.5 22.6 5.0 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.4 9.4 ???????? 12 ???????? ???? ???????? 12 ?????????? Rmb46.00 ???????? ??????????????????????? ?????? 28%????? 20%????? 10%????????????????????? ??????? 2011 ?????????????? ??????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ???????? 2015/2016/2017 ?? EPS ??? 3.04/3.60/4.25 ??????????(3.00/3.57/4.20 ?)???? 46.00 ????“??”?????? ???????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ????????????? ??????????? 2016 ?????? 10%? ???????????? 2016 ?? EPS ???? 3.8 ??????? 50.0 ?? ???????? ???????????? 2016 ????? 3%?? ?????????? 2016 ? EPS ? 3.4 ????? ?? 41.5 ?? ?????????? ??????????????????????? ???????? ??????????????????????? ????????? ?????????????????? ???????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ?????? ???????? 2014 ?????? 54.7%??????????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ?? ????????????????2014 (%) ??????????????????????? ?????????? 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E ???????????? 152 196 219 237 270 ???????????? 15 23 29 32 36 ?????????????? 21 28 34 39 43 ?????? 67 81 91 98 109 ???? 7 6 7 7 8 ???? 2 2 2 2 2 ???? 17 25 31 39 48 ???? 282 362 413 453 516 2 ?????????????????????????????????????? ??????????? 825.1 ??????? 6.7%??? Q2 ?????? 400.8 ??????? 2.8%????? 1 ????????????????? 3 ??????????????4 ????????????????? ?????????????????? 83.2 ??????? 25.9%???2 ????????? 49.8 ??????? 22.4%????????? EPS 1.96 ??????????? 49.3%?????????? ???? 1: 2012Q3-2015Q2 ?????????????????? ???? 2: 2012Q3-2015Q2 ???????????????????? ??: ???? ??: ???? ??????????????????????????????????? 1.6%?????????????? 4.2%????????? 5.9%? 28%????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????? 2.9%????????? 10.3%????????? 13.6%? 10.5%?????????????? 1.8%?????????? 20.7%????????? 22.9%? 20.6%?????????????????????????????? ???? 3: 2015H1 ?????????????????????? 1-6?? ???????????? ???????????? ?????????? ?????????????????? ???????? -0.7% 4.2% 28.0% 5.9% ???????? -5.4% -1.6% 100% 0% 1-6?? ???????????? ???????????? ?????????? ?????????????????? ???????? 10.9% 10.3% 10.5% 13.6% ???????? -1.3% -2.9% 100% 0% 1-6???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 21.60% 20.70% 20.60% 22.90% ?????????? -0.80% -1.80% 100% 0% ??: ???? ???????????????????? ?????????? 27.4%????? 1.58 ??????? 2 ????????? 28.1%????? 1.56 ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????? 1.54 ????? 10.1%?????? 2011 ?????????????????? 2 ?????? 12.36%????? 1.97 ????? ??????????????????? 18%?????????? 1 ????? 11%?????????????????????????? ???? 4: 2012Q3-2015Q2 ???????????????????? ???? 5: 2012Q3-2015Q2 ??????。