超越想象-元宇宙报告

09 / 2022 The Metaverse, beyond fantasy $ynth3t1( w0rld, r3al 3(0n0my* We are not on our screens; we are playing hide-and- seek with our friends in Roblox. — Maya and Iseline, 12 years old, March 2020, first lockdown 2 The Metaverse, beyond fantasy $ynth3t1( w0rld, r3al 3(0n0my 1 Authors Dr. Albert Meige, Director of Blue Shift, Arthur D. Little Juan Abascal, Consultant, Arthur D. Little Rick Eagar, Partner Emeritus, Arthur D. Little Michael Papadopoulos, Chief Architect, Arthur D. Little Preface Primavera De Filippi, Research Fellow at Berkman Center, Harvard University and CERSA at Centre national de la recherche scientifique Artist-in-residence Samuel Babinet 3 1 Synthetic world, real economy 4 Executive summary Preface 6 8 Preamble 10 12 1. The Metaverse: The future version of the Internet Interlude #1: Defining the Metaverse 26 30 48 52 2. The Metaverse: Not for another decade Interlude #2: Building the Metaverse 3. Proto-metaverses: Virtual worlds for real economy, today 4. The way forward 68 74 Appendix #1: Experience continuum use cases Appendix #2: Technology readiness levels 90 Executive summary For many, the term “Metaverse” first entered their consciousness when Facebook changed its name to Meta in later 2021. At the time, many people assumed it was merely a passing trend, focused on gamers and younger audiences, with little or no relevance to them or their busi- nesses. However, key players and consultancies have since been falling over themselves to declare its huge potential, outdoing each other with the scale of their market forecasts. In this report we have sought to pro- vide a realistic picture for businesses, focusing in particular on the tech- nologies that are necessary to realize the Metaverse. It is important to recognize that the Metaverse is not a new con- cept. The reason it is high on the agenda today is that we are seeing a rapid acceleration of development activity and usage adoption. This acceleration is driven by the convergence of three industries: gaming; collaboration and productivity tools; and social media and networks. The acceleration is also fueled by the confluence of key trends in user behaviors, software, and hardware development. Businesses should not underestimate the importance and potential of the Metaverse. Put simply, it promises to be the future version of the Internet, powered with new properties that will open up new usages and business models — in a similar way to how the smart- phone transformed the Web. 6 Forecasting the size of the market is difficult. If key enabling tech- nologies are included, such as artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), and blockchain, as well as the required digital infra- structure development, then the market could easily reach several trillion euros by 2030. However, we advise caution, as some of this market represents substitution rather than genuinely new market space. Our more conservative view suggests an incremental market, excluding infrastructure, of perhaps €500 billion by 2030, with a 30%-40% growth. In any case, however you define it, the Metaverse market is enormous and very dynamic. To help understand the Metaverse and its current development status, we developed a six-layer architectural framework. Using this analysis, we concluded that, in contrast to what many observers are saying, the underlying technology to enable the Metaverse as the complete “future version of the Internet” won’t be fully available for around a decade. This is something that businesses need to be aware of. Instead of a single, unified Metaverse, businesses face today a world Instead of a single, unified Metaverse, businesses face today a world of unconnected proto-metaverses. That said, there are still huge opportunities. Despite the remaining technological challenges, businesses need to take steps now to understand the current market and position themselves for the future. of unconnected proto-metaverses. In summary, we believe that among all the trends and factors cur- rently shaping the Metaverse, three of them are especially critical because they combine high potential impact and high uncertainty. These three critical factors are: 1. Immersivity. The development of new augmented reality/ mixed reality (AR/MR) technologies that effectively overcome current technical obstacles would be a strong accelerator of new usages in the coming years. In the same way that smart- phones made the digital economy shift from computers to mobiles, we believe that user-acceptable AR/MR glasses would drive a similar shift from screen to Metaverse. 2. Interoperability. Interoperability is essential to provide a true seamless experience to users and to allow them to share resources, irrespective of their access platform. However, due to diverging interests between ve