摩根资产-2023长期资本市场假设（英）100

27th annual edition2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Time-tested projections to build stronger portfoliosBy nearly any measure,the early 2020s have been a period of extraordinary challenge.The worst pandemic in over a century triggered a short but severe recession and enduring supply disruptions.A generous fiscal response,facilitated by unusually easy monetary policy,fueled the highest levels of inflation since the early 1980s.Russias brutal invasion of Ukraine created a devastating humanitarian crisis and further supply disruptions and inflation.Central banks,led by the Federal Reserve,then aggressively tightened policy in response to inflation.And in 2022,financial markets around the world and across all major asset classes incurred sharp losses.Amid these cascading crises,many of the past years losses have created significant opportunities.Against this backdrop,were pleased to launch the 2023 edition of J.P.Morgan Asset Managements Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions(LTCMAs).1 In our 27th year of producing capital market estimates,we incorporate more than 200 asset and strategy classes;our return assumptions are available in 17 base currencies.Over the years,many investors and advisors have come to depend on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation,build more resilient portfolios and establish reasonable expectations for risks and returns over a 10-to 15-year time frame.Additionally,with each passing year,we aim to recalibrate our long-run approximations,incorporating new information presented by markets,policymakers and economic data.We formulate our LTCMAs as part of a proprietary process.It draws on quantitative and qualitative inputs as well as insights from experts across J.P.Morgan Asset Management.Our own multi-asset investment approach relies heavily on our LTCMAs:The assumptions form a critical foundation of our framework for designing,building and analyzing solutions aligned with our clients specific investment needs.This edition of our assumptions is very different from last years.Our return forecasts move significantly higher across many asset classes.Lower valuations,higher yields and the accompanying unwind of many policy dislocations mean that markets today offer the best long-term return potential in more than a decade.The insights presented here aim to help clients navigate changing market dynamics and identify promising investment opportunities.We hope our analysis helps guide your long-term strategic perspective and active asset allocation.On behalf of J.P.Morgan Asset Management,we look forward to working with you to make the best use of our assumptions in setting,and achieving,your own investment goals.Thank you for your continued trust and confidence.As always,we welcome your feedback.1 Key asset classes in USD,GBP and EUR are presented at the back of this book;all others are available via our website or from your J.P.Morgan representative.J.P.Morgan Asset Management 3George GatchChief Executive Officer Asset ManagementForewordContents3 Foreword6Executive summaryBack to basics19Macroeconomic assumptionsInching forward:Lingering inflation,moderate growthThematic articles30 The future of globalizationGlobalization will evolve but not unravel41Demographics and destinyThe challenges and opportunities of a 10 billion person planetAssumption articles56 Currency exchange rate assumptions Rich U.S.dollar headed toward fair value62Fixed income assumptionsBonds are back after the biggest-ever drawdown68Equity assumptionsBetter starting point,higher forecast returns76Alternative asset assumptionsSourcing uncorrelated returns in a period of rising market risk97Volatility and correlation assumptionsFixed income volatility rises;its diversification benefits weaken104Portfolio implicationsStriking a balance:Strategic patience,tactical flexibilityAssumption matrices112 U.S.dollar2023 Estimates and correlations114Euro2023 Estimates and correlations116Sterling2023 Estimates and correlationsAppendix120 AcknowledgmentsJ.P.Morgan Asset Management 5122 GlossaryIn brief Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last years.Across markets,the unwind of dislocations,notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets,has been abrupt.Few asset classes emerged unscathed.But our LTCMAs deliver a brighter message:Lower valuations and higher yields mean that markets today offer the best potential long-term returns since 2010.A recession or at least several quarters of subtrend growth lie immediately ahead.Still,our forecast of global trend growth over our 10-to 15-year investment horizon is unchanged at 2.20%.Despite global inflation today running at 7.30%,we raise our long-term global inflation forecast just 20 basis points,to 2.60%,and expect todays elevated inflation to subside over the next two years.After policy rates normalized swiftly,bonds no longer look like serial losers.Real return forecasts for most sovereign bonds move back into positive territory,