2022年中国宏观经济展望（英）-世界银行65.pptx

2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522- 2625; e-mail: pubrightsworldbank.org.Cover Photo: Juanjo Tugores/ShutterstockAcknowledgementsThe December 2021 issue of the China Economic Update was prepared by a team comprising Ibrahim Chowdhury (Task Team Leader), Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Yusha Li, Pierre Sauve, Martin Molinuevo, Katherine Stapleton, Abayomi Alawode, Yi Yan, Justin Damien Guenette, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Karen Muramatsu, Alexandrea Schwind, Jun Ge, Qinxuan Zhang, Maria Ana Lugo, Dewen Wang, Lydia Kim, Ruslan G. Yemtsov, Ian Gillson, Marcin Piatkowski, Wenting Wei, Yang Huang, Yuan Xiao, and Juncheng Zhou. The team is grateful to Barbara Yuill for editing the report. Guidance and thoughtful comments from Martin Raiser, Aaditya Mattoo, Hassan Zaman, Sebastian Eckardt, Zafer Mustafaoglu, Ergys Islamaj and Ashley Wan are gratefully acknowledged. The team would like to thank Tianshu Chen, Li Li, Ying Yu, Xiaoting Li, Li Mingjie, and Yu Shang for support in the production and dissemination of this report. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the Chinese government. Questions and feedback can be addressed to Tianshu Chen (tchenworldbank.org).China Economic Update - December 2021Table of ContentsExecutive Summary . 6I.Recent Economic Developments. 12Global growth has peaked. 12The pace of Chinas recovery slowed after the cyclical upturn . 13Strong exports partly offset weak domestic demand . 16Sustained current account surplus contributed to RMB strength. 17 Stable labor market and recovering incomes . 18CPI inflation remained moderate amid surging PPI prices . 21Sharp fiscal consolidation as the government held back fiscal spending . 22Tighter regulations triggered a sharp adjustment in the real estate sector . 23Chinas CO2 emissions growth slowed after surging in early 2021. 27 Deleveraging efforts weighed on credit growth. 29Regulatory curbs contributed to a modest reduction in debt. 31II.Outlook, Risks, and Policy Considerations . 34 Global outlook . 34China outlook. 35Risks . 41Policy implications: From recovery to high-quality growth, a difficult re-balancing act. 42III. Chinas Services Trade Performance: Strong Growth but Unrealized Potential . 47 Services are driving Chinas structural change. 47 Services top Chinese employment but at a much lower level than in advanced economies. 48 Chinas services trade performance: an expanding export basket but untapped potential remains . 49 The changing structure of Chinas services trade: modern exports, traditional imports. 51 Domestically produced services are increasingly important for Chinese manufacturing exports . 53 Chinas services trade regime: healthy growth despite a restrictive regulatory environment. 54 Chinas investment regime remains restrictive despite recent liberalization steps . 58 Final thoughts. 62 References. 64FiguresFigure 1. The China Economic Update at a glance . 9Figure 2. Global growth has moderated but remains solid; energy prices have surged. 12 Figure 3. GDP growth slowed following the cyclical upturn . 13 Figure 4. Demand-side factors contributed to weaker growth in the second half of 2021. 13 Figure 5. China continues to adhere to its zero-COVID policy amid increased vaccination rates . 14 Figure 6. Sharp slowdown in momentum led by the real estate sector. 15 Figure 7. Exports outperformed . 16Figure 8. China continues to maintain a strong external position . 18Figure 9. Improvement in labor market conditions . 19 Figure 10. Consumer spending has improved with rising disposable income. 20 Figure 11. Rebound in CPI inflation, surge in PPI inflation . 21Figure 12. Consolidated fiscal deficit narrowed . 23Figure 13. Leverage and compliance of real estate companies with the “three red。