贵金属投资技术分析英文版33.ppt

Chapter 13Chapter 13Investing Investing FundamentalsFundamentalsChapter 13Learning Objectives￿Describe why you should establish an investment program￿Assess how safety, risk, income, growth and liquidity affect your investment decisions￿Explain how asset allocation and different investments alternatives affect your investment plan￿Recognize the importance of your role in a personal investment program￿Use various sources of financial information that can reduce risks and increase investment returns2Preparing for an Investment Program Objective 1: Describe why you should establish an investment programESTABLISHING INVESTMENT GOALS -- accumulating retirement funds -- enhancing current income -- saving for major expenditures -- sheltering income from taxes3Preparing for an Investment ProgramObjective 1: Describe why you should establish an investment programESTABLISHING INVESTMENT GOALS￿Financial goals should be specific and measurable. To develop your goals ask yourself. . . ￿What will you use the money for?￿How much will you need for your goals?￿How will you obtain the money?￿How long will it take you to obtain the money?￿How much risk are you willing to assume in an investment program?4Preparing for an Investment Program (continued)What possible economic or personal conditions could alter your investment goals?Given your economic circumstances, are your investment goals reasonable?Are you willing to make the sacrifices necessary to meet your investment goals?What will the consequences be if you don’t reach your investment goals?5Preparing for an Investment Program (continued) PERFORMING A FINANCIAL CHECKUPWork to balance your budgetDo your regularly spend more than you makePay off high interest credit card debt firstStart an emergency fund you can access quicklyThree to nine months of living expensesHave access to other sources of cash for emergenciesLine of credit is a short-term loan approved before the money is neededCash advance on your credit card6Preparing for an Investment Program (continued) GETTING THE MONEY NEEDED TO START AN INVESTMENT PROGRAMHow badly do you want to achieve your investment goalsAre you willing to sacrifice some purchases to provide financing for your investmentsWhat do you valueParticipate in elective savings programsPayroll deduction or electronic transferMake extra effort to save one or two months each yearTake advantage of gifts, inheritances, and windfalls7Preparing for an Investment Program (continued) The value of long term investment programAfter graduation, you plan to invest $200 per month in the stock market. If you earn 6% per year on your stocks, how much will you have accumulated after 10 years?Use time value of money calculation: pmt = 200, I = 6/12 = 0.5, n = 10*12 = 120 FV = ? FV = $32,7758Preparing for an Investment Program (continued) The value of long term investment programAfter graduation, you plan to invest $400 per month in the stock market. If you earn 6% per year on your stocks, how much will you have accumulated after 15 years?Use time value of money calculation: pmt = 400, I = 6/12 = 0.5, n = 15*12 = 180 FV = ? FV = $116,3279Preparing for an Investment Program (continued) The value of long term investment programAfter graduation, you plan to invest $400 per month in the stock market. If you earn 12% per year on your stocks, how much will you have accumulated after 15 years?Use time value of money calculation: pmt = 400, I = 12/12 = 1, n = 15*12 = 180 FV = ? FV = $199,83210Preparing for an Investment Program (continued) The value of long term investment programAfter graduation, you plan to invest $400 per month in the stock market. If you earn 12% per year on your stocks, how much will you have accumulated when you retire in 30 years?Use time value of money calculation: pmt = 400, I = 12/12 = 1, n = 30*12 = 360 FV = ? FV = $1,397,98511Preparing for an Investment Program (continued) Comparison:$200, 6%, 10 years  32,775$400, 6%, 15 years  116,327$400, 12%, 15 years  199,832$400, 12%, 30 years  1,397,985 12Factors Affecting the Choice of InvestmentsObjective 2: Assess how safety, risk, income, growth, and liquidity affect your investment decisions￿Safety and risk￿Safety in any investment means minimal risk of loss￿Risk means a measure of uncertainty about the outcome13Factors Affecting the Choice of Investments 14Company ACompany BFactors Affecting the Choice of InvestmentsTo get a general idea of a stock’s price variability, we could look at the stock’s price range over the past year.1552 weeks Yld Vol NetHi Lo Sym Div % PE 100s Hi Lo Close Chg134 80 IBM .52 .5 21 143402 98 95 9549 -3115 40 MSFT … 29 558918 55 52 5194 -475Factors Affecting the Choice of InvestmentsInvestments range from very safe to very riskyAnnual Rates of Return 1926-2002 Standard Deviation Real Average ReturnSmall- 33.2% 13.8% Stock Large- 20.5 9.1 StockLong-term 8.7 3.1 Corp-bond Long-term 9.4 2.7 Gov-bond U.S. Tre-bill 3.2 0.716Factors Affecting the Choice of InvestmentsThe potential return on any investment should be directly related to the risk the investor assumes Speculative investments are high riskThe Risk-Return Trade-Off17Factors Affecting the Choice of Investments (continued)18Factors Affecting the Choice of Investments (continued)Calculate return on an investmentRate of return: income you receive on an investment over a specific period of time divided by the original amount investedBuy 1000 shares of Microsoft at $25, sell it at $30 a year later, and you receive $1 dividend per share. What is the rate of return for this investment?Capital gain: 1000 * (30-25) = $5,000Dividend: $1*1000 = $5,000Total income: 5000 + 5000 = $10,000Rate of return : 10,000 / (25* 1000) = 40%19Factors Affecting the Choice of Investments (continued)COMPONENTS OF THE RISK FACTOR￿Inflation risk - during periods of high inflation your investment return may not keep pace with the inflation rate￿Interest rate risk - you may invest in a bond at a 6%, rates later go up to 8%; your bond price falls￿Business failure risk - bad management or products affect stocks and corporate bonds and mutual funds that invest in stock￿Market risk - prices fluctuate because of behaviors of investors￿Global investment risk - changes in currency affect the return on your investment20Factors Affecting the Choice of Investments (continued)INVESTMENT INCOMESafest investments – predictable incomeSavings accounts and certificates of depositU.S. savings bondsUnited States treasury billsHigher potential income investments include…Municipal bondsCorporate bondsPreferred stocks and income common stocksIncome mutual fundsReal estate rental property21Factors Affecting the Choice of Investments (continued)INVESTMENT GROWTHGrowth means investment will increase in valueCommon stockGrowth companies pay little or no dividends, but reinvest in the company Mutual funds, government and corporate bonds, and real estate offer growth potentialGemstones and collectibles - more speculativeINVESTMENT LIQUIDITYAbility to buy or sell an investment quickly without substantially affecting the investment’s value; e.g. Real estate is not a very liquid investment22Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives Asset Allocation The process of placing your assets among several types of investments which lessens your investment riskTypes of assets -- stocks of large corporations -- stocks of medium-sized corporations -- stocks of small companies -- foreign stocks -- bonds -- cash23Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives (contined)24Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives (contined)25Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives (contined)Time FactorThe longer that you are invested the better your returns Your AgeThe type and style of your investments should change with your age2627Asset Allocation and Investment AlternativesInvestment alternativesStock or equity financingEquity capital is provided by stockholders who buy shares of a company’s stock. Stockholders are owners and share in the success of the company.A corporation is not required to repay the money obtained from the sale of stock.The corporation is under no legal obligation to pay dividends to stockholders: they may instead retain all or part of earnings.28Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives (continued)CORPORATE AND GOVERNMENT BONDSA bond is a loan to a corporation, the federal government, or a municipalityBondholders receive periodic interest payments, and the principal is repaid at maturity (1-30 years)Bondholders can keep the bond until maturity or sell it to another investor before maturity29Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives (continued)Mutual fundsInvestors’ money is pooled and invested by a professional fund managerYou buy shares in the fundProvides diversification to reduce riskFunds range from conservative to extremely speculativeMatch your needs with a fund’s objective30Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives (continued)REAL ESTATEThe goal of a real estate investment is to buy a property and sell it at a profit. Nationally, 3% appreciation in price a year is average.Location, location, location is important.Before you buy real estate...Is the property priced competitively?What type, if any, of financing is available?How much are the taxes?What is the condition of the buildings and houses in the immediate area?Why are the present owners selling?Could the property decrease in value?31Asset Allocation and Investment Alternatives (continued)OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENTSSpeculative investmentsA speculative investment is a high-risk investment made in the hope of earning a relatively large profit in a short time Typical speculative investments include:Antiques and collectibles Call and put optionsDerivativesCommoditiesCoins and stamps Precious metals and gemstones32A Personal Plan for Investing Establish realistic goalsDetermine the amount of money needed to meet your goalsSpecify the amount of money available to fund your investmentsList different investments you want to evaluateEvaluate risk and potential return for eachReduce possible investments to a reasonable numberChoose at least two different investmentsContinue to evaluate your investment program33Factors that Reduce Investment RiskObjective 4: Recognize the importance of your role in a personal investment programYOUR ROLE IN THE INVESTMENT PROCESSEvaluate potential investmentsSeek the assistance of a financial planner (see Appendix at the back of the text)Monitor the value of your investmentsKeep accurate and current recordsConsider the tax consequences of selling your investments 34Sources of Investment InformationObjective 5: Use the various sources of financial information that can reduce risks and increase the investment returnsThe Internet A wealth of investment information is availableView sites such as and Newspapers and news programsBusiness periodicals such as Smart Money and government publicationsCorporate ReportsInvestor services and newsletters, such as ValueLine or Morningstar and financial calculators35。