历史学专业英语07-Counterfactual-history.ppt

Counterfactual historyDr Mark J CrowleyKey questions•Are counterfactual claims avoidable?•Is it a good method of historical inquiry?•Can it be considered as ‘serious history’?Types of counterfactuals•Use different models to predict outcomes•“miracle” and “plausible” counterfactuals•“historical consistency”•Quantitative methods don’t often workThe approach•Good reasoning (can be grounded in FACT)•Bad reasoning (imagination)•Implicit suggestionsNiall Ferguson•"how are we to distinguish between probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? ... We should consider plausible or probable only those alternatives which we can show on the basis of contemporary evidence that contemporaries actually considered.”Examples•"If only the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand's driver had met a well-meaning man in the Sarajevo street in June 1914….no First World War, no Hitler, no Stalin, no nuclear weapons, no Sarajevo crisis (1990s)“–Simon Schama Examples•"[e]very historian who has set out to deal with the causes of the Civil War ... has implicitly or explicitly presumed what would have happened to slavery if some events had unfolded in a way that was different from the actual course.” Robert FogelProblems •Conclusions based on models rather than evidence•History does not have enough information at all timesWhy use counterfactual?•Try to see an alternative path•Try to predict the future•Answer “what if” questions•Establish causal effectsWhere is it used?•Counterfactual used in many disciplines:–Political science–Psychology–History–Philosophy–Computer scienceConclusion•speculations that are to be judged by their creativity operating under the constraints of professional expertise.•In "straight" history, we have what is a straightforward answer, even if it is unfashionable in some quarters—truth.•what is involved is always and only an act of imagination。