发展战略 发展经济学d.pdf

发展战略 发展经济学 d发展战略 发展经济学 d Robert Fogels forecasting Chinese economy in 2040Robert Fogels forecasting Chinese economy in 2040 发展经济学 development economics发展经济学 development economics 讲课人：李实讲课人：李实 本课程的结构本课程的结构 1发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变 11研究范畴 12发展的测度 13研究方法 14历史演变 2发展与增长理论2发展与增长理论 21增长与发展的差异 2 2增 长 理 论 ： Harrod-Dmar model; Solow model; convergence: unconditional and conditional. 23新增长理论 24人口增长与经济发展 25经济发展与人类发展 3发展与收入分配3发展与收入分配 31收入分配的现实与理论 32收入决定机制与因素分析 33经济发展与收入差距 34经济增长与收入分配 35中国收入分配的变化趋势 4发展中国家中的贫困问题4发展中国家中的贫困问题 41绝对贫困与相对贫困 42贫困线的设定 43贫困标准的选择：收入还是消费 44贫困的度量：贫困发生率、贫困距和加权贫困距 45中国的贫困状态 5发展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本5发展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本 51劳动剩余与两部门模型 52劳动力市场中工资决定机制 53劳动力市场中歧视问题 54中国农民工的工资与歧视状态的研究 55劳动力流动与城乡差距 56教育、健康与经济发展 6土地与经济发展6土地与经济发展 61土地产权与租赁制度 62土地租赁合同理论 63土地产权制度理论 7资本市场与经济发展7资本市场与经济发展 71信贷市场的不完善性 72农村信贷市场的功能与发展 73非正规信贷市场 74资本市场的制度与信贷市场的发展 8保险与发展8保险与发展 81保险的功能 82完善的保险模型 83保险的局限性：信息的不对称性 84保险的执行困难 9国际贸易与经济发展9国际贸易与经济发展 91国际贸易的基本理论 92比较优势理论 93世界贸易格局 94贸易政策和发展战略 10制度与经济发展10制度与经济发展 101 新制度经济学对经济发展的启示 102 政府与市场的作用 103 经济改革与经济发展 11发展经济学的未来方向11发展经济学的未来方向 111 理论还是经验研究？ 112 中国经济发展的经验如何上升到一般的经济发展理论 1发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变 1.1研究对象（DE 是什么） What is economic development? What is economic development? (1) Economic development is the development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants. Economic development is the development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants. (2) The process whereby the real per capita income of a country The process whereby the real per capita income of a country increases over a long period of time, subject to the stipulations increases over a long period of time, subject to the stipulations that the number of people below an absolute poverty line does not increase and that the distribution of income does not become more unequal. that the number of people below an absolute poverty line does not increase and that the distribution of income does not become more unequal. (3) Economic development is a means to make mass people out of poverty. Economic development is a means to make mass people out of poverty. What development economics studies? What development economics studies? DE studies the economic structure and behavior of the poor (less developed) countries (Lewis, 1984). Development Economics (DE) studies the economic transformation of developing countries (Debraj Ray, 1998). The major task of DE is to explore the possibilities of emancipation from poverty for developing economies (Yujiro Hayami, 2001). DE is about the big issues: how economies and societies grow and change (N. Stern, 2001). Backward underdevelopment less developed countries poor countries emergent countries developing economies. 1.2 研究内容（研究什么） (1) 理解现在世界各国发展的不平衡性。

(2) 理解发展中国家现在的问题需要理解发达国家的发展经验， 具有比较的意义 (3) 对前人的发展理论要加以研究 (4) 发展涉及到很多层面， 1.3 发展的测度（measurement of development） GDP or GDP per capita 是否是衡量发展程度的最好指标？ 它在国际比较中的 缺陷: 发展中国家 GDP 低估的问题； PPP 方法来修正 GDP； 人类发展指数 （HDI）的意义和应用 China rank of HDI in the world, 1970-2010 1.4 研究方法 (1) 理论研究与经验研究（theoretical and empirical approach） (2) 发展微观经济学与发展宏观经济学（development microeconomics and development macroeconomics） (3) 纯粹的经济分析还是多学科研究 1.5 历史演变1.5 历史演变 (1)古典经济学是当时的发展经济学 (2)在 20 世纪 40 年代后期，现代发展经济学形成 Capital accumulation, as the necessary requirement, was the central focus of the models. The Harrod-Domar equation, although originally formulated for conditions of full growth in an industrial economy, was applied to estimate capital requirements in developing countries. Other early models of development strategy also featured capital accumulation: Rostows stages of growth, 1. Traditional society 2. Preconditions for take-off 3. Take-off 4. Drive to maturity 5. Age of High mass consumption Nurkses balanced growth, The theory hypotheses that the government of any underdeveloped country needs to make large investments in a number of industries simultaneously. This would consequently enlarge the market size and provide an incentive for the private sector to invest. Rosenstein-Rodans external economies and big push, This theory is an investment theory which stresses the conditions of take-off. The argumentation is quite similar to the balanced growth theory but emphasis is put on the need for a big push. The investments should be of a relatively high minimum in order to reap the benefits of external economies. Only investments in big complexes will result in social benefits exceeding social costs. High priority is given to infrastruc-tural development and industry, and this emphasis will lead to governmental development planning and influence. Lewiss unlimited supply of labor and dual-sector model The process of economic growth is inextricably linked to the growth of capitalist surplus, that is as long as the the capitalist surplus increases, the national income also increases raising the growth of the economy. The increase in capita。