管理学原理：第7章 决策.ppt
76页
ninth editionninth edition决策决策第第7章章 6–2学习纲要学习纲要制定决策的假设和类型制定决策的假设和类型制定决策的假设和类型制定决策的假设和类型• •理性理性理性理性• •有限理性有限理性有限理性有限理性• •直觉直觉直觉直觉制定决策的步骤制定决策的步骤制定决策的步骤制定决策的步骤 6–3学习纲要学习纲要 (续续) 问题和决策的类型问题和决策的类型问题和决策的类型问题和决策的类型 6–4决策制定决策制定•决策决策ØØ在两个或多个方案中做出选择在两个或多个方案中做出选择 6–5制定决策制定决策•理性理性ØØ管理者所制定的决策是前后一致的，是追求特定条件管理者所制定的决策是前后一致的，是追求特定条件下价值的最大化下价值的最大化ØØ完美理性决策者隐含的假设是：完美理性决策者隐含的假设是：vv是完全合理的，客观的，合乎逻辑的是完全合理的，客观的，合乎逻辑的vv已经仔细审视问题、查明所有可行的选择已经仔细审视问题、查明所有可行的选择vv有清晰具体的目标有清晰具体的目标vv将会选择那些使组织利益最大化的方案而不是个人利益在先将会选择那些使组织利益最大化的方案而不是个人利益在先 6–6图表图表图表图表 6–6 6–6 理性假设理性假设理性假设理性假设 6–7制定决策制定决策 (续续)•有限理性有限理性ØØ管理者理性的做出决策，但同时也受到自身信息处理管理者理性的做出决策，但同时也受到自身信息处理能力的限制能力的限制ØØ有限理性决策者隐含的假设：有限理性决策者隐含的假设：vv没有搜索出并了解所有的备择方案没有搜索出并了解所有的备择方案vv将满足于将满足于——能解决问题的第一种解决方案能解决问题的第一种解决方案——而不是考虑所有的而不是考虑所有的方案，选择最优方案进而使产出最大化方案，选择最优方案进而使产出最大化ØØ对制定决策的影响对制定决策的影响vv承诺升级：承诺升级： 在过去决策的基础上不断增加承诺的现象，尽管有在过去决策的基础上不断增加承诺的现象，尽管有证据证明已经做出的决策是错误的证据证明已经做出的决策是错误的 6–8根据直觉决策根据直觉决策•大家介绍一下自己类似的经历大家介绍一下自己类似的经历•什么是直觉？什么是直觉？ 6–9我们决策的特点我们决策的特点 潜意识潜意识 表意识表意识情绪和行为情绪和行为本能与心智模式本能与心智模式信息信息感觉感觉过滤、加过滤、加工、组织工、组织和解释和解释认知认知112295%95%的决策是经过途的决策是经过途径径11实现的。
实现的自我 6–10自我的特点自我的特点•自尊自尊•自信自信 VS VS 自卑自卑 •自我肯定，自我价值的认同自我肯定，自我价值的认同•自傲自傲•自私自私•自我意识：自我保护意识，当别人对你的意见、自我意识：自我保护意识，当别人对你的意见、方案提出质疑和建议时，反应是对质疑反驳，对方案提出质疑和建议时，反应是对质疑反驳，对建议表面接受，但实质上是不接受的建议表面接受，但实质上是不接受的 6–11自我、情绪对决策的影响自我、情绪对决策的影响•屁股决定脑袋屁股决定脑袋•一期货公司，陈总、钱总、张总对铜期货的投资一期货公司，陈总、钱总、张总对铜期货的投资安排；安排；•钱总对分析员提交的报告，非常不满钱总对分析员提交的报告，非常不满 6–12情绪对决策的影响情绪对决策的影响•见课件见课件《《情绪及其对决策的影响情绪及其对决策的影响》》 6–13自我、情绪对决策的影响自我、情绪对决策的影响自我决策情绪 6–14决策制定决策制定•决策制定过程决策制定过程ØØ识别决策问题和确定决策标准，以及为每个决策标准识别决策问题和确定决策标准，以及为每个决策标准分配权重分配权重ØØ开发、分析和选择解决问题的备选方案开发、分析和选择解决问题的备选方案ØØ实施备择方案实施备择方案ØØ评价决策结果评价决策结果 6–15决策制定决策制定•你们是怎么决定选购电脑的？你们是怎么决定选购电脑的？•是理性的？有限理性？还是凭直觉？是理性的？有限理性？还是凭直觉？ 6–16图表图表图表图表 6–1 6–1决策制定过程决策制定过程决策制定过程决策制定过程 6–17步骤步骤 1：识别决策问题：识别决策问题•问题问题ØØ现在状态和希望状态之间的差异现在状态和希望状态之间的差异•问题特征问题特征ØØ管理者意识到问题存在是管理者意识到问题存在是“ “问题问题” ”就变成了就变成了“ “问题问题” ”ØØ迫于压力去解决问题迫于压力去解决问题ØØ管理者必须拥有职权、预算、信息或其他采取必要行管理者必须拥有职权、预算、信息或其他采取必要行动的资源动的资源 6–18步骤步骤 2：确定决策标准：确定决策标准•决策标准是解决问题很重要的因素决策标准是解决问题很重要的因素ØØ花费花费————投资所需要的投资所需要的 ØØ风险风险————失败的概率失败的概率ØØ顾客的期望顾客的期望 —— ——企业成长企业成长步骤步骤 3：为决策标准分配权重：为决策标准分配权重•决策标准不是同等重要的：决策标准不是同等重要的：ØØ为每一项标准分配权重，以便正确地规定他们的优先为每一项标准分配权重，以便正确地规定他们的优先次序次序 6–19图表图表图表图表 6–2 6–2 电脑采购决策的指标和权重电脑采购决策的指标和权重电脑采购决策的指标和权重电脑采购决策的指标和权重指标指标 权重权重存储量存储量 10电池寿命电池寿命 8携带重量携带重量 6保修保修 4显示质量显示质量 3 6–20步骤步骤 4：开发备择方案：开发备择方案•确定可行的备择方案确定可行的备择方案ØØ列出可以解决问题的备择方案，无需进行评估列出可以解决问题的备择方案，无需进行评估步骤步骤 5：分析备择方案：分析备择方案•评价备择方案的优缺点评价备择方案的优缺点ØØ基于步骤基于步骤2 2和步骤和步骤3 3评价备择方案解决问题的能力。
评价备择方案解决问题的能力 6–21图表图表图表图表 6–3 6–3根据决策标准对不同笔记本电脑的价值评估根据决策标准对不同笔记本电脑的价值评估根据决策标准对不同笔记本电脑的价值评估根据决策标准对不同笔记本电脑的价值评估 6–22步骤步骤 6：选择备择方案：选择备择方案•选择最优方案选择最优方案ØØ选择得分最高的方案选择得分最高的方案步骤步骤 7：实时备择方案：实时备择方案•把备择方案付诸行动把备择方案付诸行动ØØ把决策传达给有关人员并获得他们对决策的承诺，将把决策传达给有关人员并获得他们对决策的承诺，将决策付诸行动决策付诸行动 6–23图表图表图表图表 6–4 6–4 根据标准和权重对不同笔记本电脑的评价根据标准和权重对不同笔记本电脑的评价根据标准和权重对不同笔记本电脑的评价根据标准和权重对不同笔记本电脑的评价 6–24步骤步骤 8：评价决策结果：评价决策结果•通过方案产生的结果判断其合理性通过方案产生的结果判断其合理性ØØ选择方案的实施对问题解决的有效性如何选择方案的实施对问题解决的有效性如何? ?ØØ如果问题没有解决，问题出在哪里如果问题没有解决，问题出在哪里? ? 6–25直觉作用直觉作用•直觉决策直觉决策ØØ一种潜意识的决策过程，基于决策者的经验以及积累一种潜意识的决策过程，基于决策者的经验以及积累的判断的判断 6–26直觉作用直觉作用•我们应该百分百相信自己的直觉吗？我们应该百分百相信自己的直觉吗？ 6–27直觉作用直觉作用 The total number of The total number of possible different moves possible different moves in a single fame of in a single fame of chess is more than the chess is more than the number of seconds that number of seconds that have elapsed since the have elapsed since the big bang created the big bang created the universe. Intuition is the universe. Intuition is the defining quality of a defining quality of a great chess player.great chess player. ---Garry Kasparov---Garry Kasparov 6–28直觉作用直觉作用 "I believe the most "I believe the most important thing is that important thing is that you should trust your you should trust your own feeling and your own feeling and your own intuition, and then own intuition, and then act accordingly". when act accordingly". when faced with more than faced with more than one path of research, one path of research, he always choose the he always choose the more radical more radical one:"intuition guides one:"intuition guides me, gives me a feeling me, gives me a feeling about which direction I about which direction I should continue in."should continue in."a pioneer in the new field of quantum information and is renowned for his realization of quantum teleportation with photons. 6–29直觉作用直觉作用ØØ 1992-1994, CEO, turned this 1992-1994, CEO, turned this company from bankruptcy;company from bankruptcy;ØØ1994, took KTM, a leader in the 1994, took KTM, a leader in the manufacture of off-road manufacture of off-road motorcycles into the world of motorcycles into the world of street motorcycles, a completely street motorcycles, a completely different business;different business;ØØhelped it become Europe's helped it become Europe's second-largest sport-motorcycle second-largest sport-motorcycle manufacturer, with 15 years of 25 manufacturer, with 15 years of 25 percent revenue growth. percent revenue growth. ØØby 2006, 29 percent of the by 2006, 29 percent of the company's revenues derived from company's revenues derived from its street motorcycles.its street motorcycles.Stefan Pierer, CEO of KTM Sportmotorcycles AG 6–30直觉作用直觉作用 When it comes to really serious business decisions I ultimately rely on my intuition. it's sometimes the case that rational arguments speak for or against something, but then somehow the decison still won't leave me in peace. I wake up in the night and have the feeling that I should do it differently after all. KTM RC8 视频视频 6–31直觉作用直觉作用 6–32直觉作用直觉作用•executives routinely rely on their intuitions to executives routinely rely on their intuitions to solve complex problems when logical methods solve complex problems when logical methods (such as a cost-benefit analysis) simply won't do.(such as a cost-benefit analysis) simply won't do.• the higher up on the corporate ladder people the higher up on the corporate ladder people climb, the more they'll need well-honed business climb, the more they'll need well-honed business instincts. instincts. --Hayashi, 2001 --Hayashi, 2001 6–33直觉作用直觉作用Ralph S. Larsen, chair and CEO of Johnson & Johnson, Ralph S. Larsen, chair and CEO of Johnson & Johnson, explains the distinction: "Very often, people will do a explains the distinction: "Very often, people will do a brilliant job up through the middle management levels, brilliant job up through the middle management levels, where it's very heavily quantitative in terms of the where it's very heavily quantitative in terms of the decision-making. But then they reach senior decision-making. But then they reach senior management, where the problems get more complex management, where the problems get more complex and ambiguous, and we discover that their judgment or and ambiguous, and we discover that their judgment or intuition is not what it should be. And when that happens, intuition is not what it should be. And when that happens, it's a problem; it's a big problem."it's a problem; it's a big problem.""Often there is absolutely no way that you could have the "Often there is absolutely no way that you could have the time to thoroughly analyze every one of the options or time to thoroughly analyze every one of the options or alternatives available to you," says Larsen. "So you have alternatives available to you," says Larsen. "So you have to rely on your business judgment."to rely on your business judgment." --Hayashi, 2001 --Hayashi, 2001 6–34直觉作用直觉作用Richard Abdoo, chair and CEO of Wisconsin Energy Richard Abdoo, chair and CEO of Wisconsin Energy Corporation, agrees. "As we move to a deregulated Corporation, agrees. "As we move to a deregulated marketplace, we don't have this slow process of marketplace, we don't have this slow process of hearings and review and two years to make a decision. hearings and review and two years to make a decision. We now have to make decisions in a timely manner. And We now have to make decisions in a timely manner. And that means that we process the best information that's that means that we process the best information that's available and infer from it and use our intuition to make a available and infer from it and use our intuition to make a decision"decision" --Hayashi, 2001 --Hayashi, 2001 6–35直觉作用直觉作用But the top jobs at any organization all require sound But the top jobs at any organization all require sound business instincts. J&J's Larsen uses an example to business instincts. J&J's Larsen uses an example to explain why: "When someone presents an acquisition explain why: "When someone presents an acquisition proposal to me, the numbers always look terrific: the proposal to me, the numbers always look terrific: the hurdle rates have been met; the return on investment is hurdle rates have been met; the return on investment is wonderful; the growth rate is just terrific. And I get all the wonderful; the growth rate is just terrific. And I get all the reasons why this would be a good acquisition. But it's at reasons why this would be a good acquisition. But it's at that point--when I have a tremendous amount of that point--when I have a tremendous amount of quantitative information that's already been analyzed by quantitative information that's already been analyzed by very smart people--that I earn what I get paid. Because I very smart people--that I earn what I get paid. Because I will look at that information and I will know,will look at that information and I will know,intuitively, whether it's a good or bad deal."intuitively, whether it's a good or bad deal." --Hayashi, 2001 --Hayashi, 2001 6–36直觉作用直觉作用After 11 years at the helm of J&J, Larsen says that one After 11 years at the helm of J&J, Larsen says that one thing his experience has taught him is to listen to his thing his experience has taught him is to listen to his instincts. "Ignoring them has led to some bad decisions," instincts. "Ignoring them has led to some bad decisions," he notes. Adds Abdoo, "You end up consuming more he notes. Adds Abdoo, "You end up consuming more Rolaids, but you have to learn to trust your intuition. Rolaids, but you have to learn to trust your intuition. Otherwise, at the point when you've gathered enough Otherwise, at the point when you've gathered enough data to be 99.99% certain that the decision you're about data to be 99.99% certain that the decision you're about to make is the correct one, that decision has become to make is the correct one, that decision has become obsolete."obsolete." --Hayashi, 2001 --Hayashi, 2001 6–37直觉过程直觉过程Øintuitive decision making is really one's ability to recognize patterns at lighting speed-- a process that often happens unconsciously. 6–38直觉过程直觉过程•In its purest sense, intuition is a kind of competence that enables the intuitor (Wild, 1938) to understand or portray a whole frame; that is, something that neither exists nor was clearly outlined earlier. Yet, when that inspirational moment takes place it commonly sparks some idea or thought that will likely engender an innovative solution, a very special human creation, the understanding of a certain situation or just a conclusion to an intricate problem. Perhaps, therein lies the reason why Jung conceived it as the “noblest of human gifts” 6–39直觉过程直觉过程•Khatri and Ng found that the use of intuition is positively associated with organisational performance but only in unstable environments 6–40直觉过程直觉过程Øpattern recognitionØInference(联想) Øcross indexing（更抽象地联想） 6–41直觉的影响因素直觉的影响因素Ø ExperienceØ Mental IntegrationØ Guiding Principles 6–42Mental IntegrationØHuman cognition is based on mental integration: we cannot think or function without it. First, we integrate similar existents we perceive: different tables, trees, people, firms to form the concepts of ‘‘table’’, ‘‘tree’’, ‘‘man’’, ‘‘business’’. For example, when we observe more than one item of fur- niture with a flat surface that is supported by legs and used for holding objects, we integrate them into a concept ‘‘table’’. The concept of table (its definition) serves as a mental file holding all our knowledge about tables; the concept of business is a mental file for our knowledge about businesses. We file information about things belonging to the same class for quick recall when we encounter a new entity or phenomenon that belongs to that class. The recalled information guides our action, for example, by telling us how to use a new table we observe, or what goals to set for a new business we founded. 6–43Mental IntegrationØMental integration occurs at increasing levels of abstraction. After integrating existents into concepts, we start integrating concepts into broader concepts, such as furniture and manmade objects. Eventu- ally, we integrate concepts into principles, such as: in furniture design, form should follow function; or companies should differentiate their products from those of competitors. This higher level integration into more abstract concepts and principles serves the same purpose as the integration of percepts into concepts: it condenses information to save mental space and allows a rapid recall of such information. 6–44Mental IntegrationØHow we integrate knowledge governs our mental filing system. There is no one system that everyone follows automatically, particularly at the higher levels of abstraction. To integrate by essentials, one must first identify the essence of whatever one is observing. The essence of a thing, event or issue is its most fundamental characteristic that gives rise to and makes its other characteristics possible.13 For example, man’s ability to use reason, which governs the rest of his qualities, such as the ability to speak or to design and build furniture or to form and run a business, is his most fundamental char- acteristic d therefore Aristotle defined man as ‘‘a rational animal’’. If essences are identified and knowledge is integrated into concepts and principles based on them, the subconscious (intuitive) filing and retrieval of knowledge will be fast and accurate, facilitating effective decision making. 6–45Mental IntegrationØFor example, the essence of a company is its purpose: production of goods or services for a profit. If a general manager integrates his or her knowledge based on this, he or she will quickly identify the re- quirements of profitable production: securing capital and other resources, trading the produced goods and services at prices that exceed costs, obtaining returns that exceed the investment and balancing risk with return. This may sound obvious, yet there are chief executives who fail to identify or apply the essential requirements of sustained value creation. The leadership of Enron is probably one of the most striking examples of a failure to adhere to one of the most fundamental of such requirements: focus on reality. Their ‘‘We Make Markets’’ (WMM) licence plates were a sign of their hubris, stem- ming from the failure to observe reality correctly, which significantly contributed to Enron’s collapse. 6–46Guiding PrinciplesØIntegration of knowledge by essentials not only makes retrieving of information faster and more ac- curate, it also gives decision makers an indispensable tool: guiding principles. Principles are the broad- est integrations: based on the essences of things, they identify underlying cause-effect relationships that apply to a wide range of specific situations. Principles are generalisations induced from observa- tions or past experience about attaining a goal. They offer guidance to decision making in every field, such as agriculture (‘‘cultivate the soil before sowing the seeds’’), nutrition (‘‘eat balanced meals con- sisting of the various food groups’’) and competitive strategy (‘‘differentiate your products from those of your competitors’’).15 A CEO intent on creating value for the company’s owners identifies a prin- ciple: ‘‘Risk should be commensurate with the company’s resources.’’ When encountering a concrete choice, he or she recalls and applies the principle and is able to reach a value-creating decision quickly: ‘‘Do not explore for oil in the Arctic when you do not have resources and expertise to make a signif- icant discovery in a short enough timeframe to provide a return commensurate with the risk.’’ 6–47How the ‘‘good minds’’ integrated by essentialsØThe oil and gas CEOs with ‘‘good minds’’ demonstrated integration by essentials (whereas their less effective counterparts did not).19 When dealing with the scenario, the effective executives focused on what was essential: those factors that most fundamentally affected profitable production of oil and gas by the company. The following is a typical assessment of the option of exploring for oil and gas in the Arctic, based on identification of essentials: ‘‘It’s too risky for a public company of this size to go exploring in the Arctic. It does not have the resources to make a sufficient investment to get a return large enough to justify the risk. The payback in the Arctic is too long; you would not see any production and revenue for seven to 10 years. The production declines are about 20 per cent annually in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin; the company cannot wait that long but needs to add production sooner. The market expects faster returns. And the company does not have any expertise in the Arctic d making the risk even higher.’’ 6–48How the ‘‘good minds’’ integrated by essentialsØSuch an evaluation shows how the effective CEOs intuitively retrieved essentials from their subconsciously- stored memory files: fundamental requirements of profitable production (e.g., adequate resources and expertise, balanced risk and return, a payback period short enough, replacing declining production, and meeting market expectations). This enabled them to analyse the Arctic option rationally, dismiss it quickly and to concentrate on others that would create value more effectively. This comment from one of the effective CEOs is representative: ‘‘We have certain skills to execute and create value but we can’t bring forward dreams. Right now, making money out of the Arctic is a dream. Given the problem [the CEO] is facing and the size of the company, investing in the Arctic is not going to generate returns that the shareholder would find acceptable.’’ 6–49How the ‘‘good minds’’ integrated by essentials In contrast, the less effective CEOs retrieved non-essential knowledge, such as previous aspirationsfor international expansion or fear of committing to any option. This suggests that theseCEOs had not integrated their knowledge by essentials. For example, one less effective CEO wantedto embrace the Arctic option because he found it ‘‘exciting’’: he had always wanted to expand beyondWestern Canada and did not pay attention to the essential problems of risk, payback and requiredresources. Another less effective CEO would not judge any of the three options and wantedto keep them all ‘‘open’’, unwilling to commit to a decision (despite that being the task at hand).The third less effective CEO also did not get to the essentials in the scenario but instead proposed tosurvey what others wanted him to do and gave detailed descriptions of statistical analyses he wouldconduct on prospective properties. When intuition does not provide knowledge integrated by essentials,rational evaluation is not possible and decision making is hampered. Instead of essentialknowledge, the not-so-effective CEOs’ retrieval process was based on vague associations and emotions.This did not help them effectively assess and make a reasoned decision about the scenario. 6–50Guiding Principles 见论文见论文 In contrast, the less effective CEOs retrieved non-essential knowledge, such as previous aspirationsfor international expansion or fear of committing to any option. This suggests that theseCEOs had not integrated their knowledge by essentials. For example, one less effective CEO wantedto embrace the Arctic option because he found it ‘‘exciting’’: he had always wanted to expand beyondWestern Canada and did not pay attention to the essential problems of risk, payback and requiredresources. Another less effective CEO would not judge any of the three options and wantedto keep them all ‘‘open’’, unwilling to commit to a decision (despite that being the task at hand).The third less effective CEO also did not get to the essentials in the scenario but instead proposed tosurvey what others wanted him to do and gave detailed descriptions of statistical analyses he wouldconduct on prospective properties. When intuition does not provide knowledge integrated by essentials,rational evaluation is not possible and decision making is hampered. Instead of essentialknowledge, the not-so-effective CEOs’ retrieval process was based on vague associations and emotions.This did not help them effectively assess and make a reasoned decision about the scenario. 6–51直觉过程直觉过程Ø Human brain functions like a computer only when considering trivial decisions. Øcomplex decisions bring into play a process in which knowledge, experience and emotions are linked. Ø Research has found that people who have acquired deep wells of knowledge and experience--through their curiosity, openness and propensity to seize opportunities-- are able to reach good intuitive decisions much more frequently than people who possess a relatively limited sphere of experience. 6–52直觉过程直觉过程Ø pattern recognitionKlein has described intuitive decision making as a pattern-recognition process: cues about the decision situation lead a decision maker to recognise a familiar pattern (based on prior experience) which then activates an action script, a routine way of responding that makes deliberate analysis unnecessary. 6–53直觉过程直觉过程Ø pattern recognitionØ the more extensive a decision maker's experience, the more patterns he or she will be familiar with; the more patterns, the better the intuition. 6–54直觉过程直觉过程Ø pattern recognitionX:\My works in ECUST\research\自我、决策和有心\materials\神奇大脑 造就天才 6–55直觉过程直觉过程Ø InferenceIndeed, research on experts has clearly established the link between repeated exposure to specific types of prob- lems through practice and training and the ability to make decisions accurately and fast ( Ericsson & Charness, 1994; Simon, 1987). Through expertise, movie directors are able to recognize and match patterns in a present situation with similar patterns in previous situations. This allows them to make an intuitive decision that resolves an external problem and achieves task effectiveness. 6–56直觉过程直觉过程cross indexingTruly inspired decisions, however, seem to require an even more sophisticated mechanism: cross-indexing. Indeed, the ability to see similar patterns in disparate fields is what elevates a person's intuitive skills from good to sublime.They also conclude that intuition is a synthetic reasoning process at play in all decisions (and not only when specifically called on) that integrates isolated pieces of data into a total picture by accessing a subconsciously stored reservoir of cumulative experience.
比尔.盖茨我们没能预见到当时仅仅服务于学术、科研交流的互联网，在今天已经成为全球范围内兴旺的经济贸易网 比尔.盖茨占据通向个人电脑革命的第一个台阶的位置，看起来就像人一生中仅有的一次机会，而我们抓住了它 比尔.盖茨1–65决策者的心智模式决策者的心智模式-Microsoft-Microsoft 1–662024/9/14sanlychen@电站距海岸近，高度仅超过海平面10米尽管当地过去120年3次海啸，运营商东京电力公司认为，那是安全地点然而，去年海啸高度至少达到14米，破坏电站主供电和备用供电系统建电站时，(建造者)认为，无须担心大海啸……我必须承认，(这次事故)缘于人祸 菅直人1–66决策者的心智模式决策者的心智模式 1–672024/9/14sanlychen@Matthew Broderick and Hurricane Katrina1–67决策者的心智模式决策者的心智模式 1–682024/9/14sanlychen@黑天鹅事件黑天鹅事件•在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的，“黑天鹅”曾经是欧洲人言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。
•黑天鹅的存在寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件，它在意料之外，却又改变一切人类总是过度相信经验，而不知道一只黑天鹅的出现就足以颠覆一切 1–692024/9/14sanlychen@活在过去的经验中活在过去的经验中•“但根据我所有的经验，我没有遇到任何……值得一提的事故我在整个海上生涯中只见过一次遇险船只我从未见过失事船只，从未处于失事的危险，也从未陷入任何有可能演化为灾难的任何险境 --E·J·史密斯（E.J.Smith），泰坦尼克号船长，1907年 史密斯船长的船于1912年沉没，成为历史上被提起次数最多的沉船事故 6–70基于直觉的决策基于直觉的决策•直觉是依据过去的经验形成的，有经验的管理者往往凭直觉抓住问题核心并迅速做出明智决策•面对一个变动剧烈的环境来说，原有的直觉或过去经验有时还不如全无经验 6–71基于直觉的决策基于直觉的决策•基于直觉的决策是否就是正确的呢？基于直觉的决策是否就是正确的呢？•为了做出正确的决策，我们如何对待直觉？为了做出正确的决策，我们如何对待直觉？ 6–72问题和决策的类型问题和决策的类型•结构良好问题结构良好问题ØØ目的明确目的明确ØØ问题是熟悉的问题是熟悉的 ( (以前发生过以前发生过) )ØØ容易完整定义容易完整定义 —— —— 有关问题的信息容易定义和收集有关问题的信息容易定义和收集•程序化决策程序化决策ØØ重复的决定，可以由一个常规的方法处理重复的决定，可以由一个常规的方法处理 6–73程序化决策的类型程序化决策的类型•政策政策ØØ决策关于结构优良问题通用指南决策关于结构优良问题通用指南•程序程序ØØ一系列相互关联的步骤，管理者可以处理结构良好的一系列相互关联的步骤，管理者可以处理结构良好的问题问题•规则规则ØØ一种明确的陈述，告诉管理者能做什么不能做什么一种明确的陈述，告诉管理者能做什么不能做什么 6–74政策、程序和规则例政策、程序和规则例•政策政策ØØ接受所有客户退回的商品接受所有客户退回的商品•程序程序ØØ按照退货文件完成所有的步骤按照退货文件完成所有的步骤•规则规则ØØ超过超过$ 50.00$ 50.00的退款必须经管理者批准的退款必须经管理者批准ØØ购买时没有使用信用购则退还现金购买时没有使用信用购则退还现金 6–75问题和决策问题和决策 (续续)•结构不良问题结构不良问题ØØ这类问题是新颖的、不经常发生的、信息模糊的和不这类问题是新颖的、不经常发生的、信息模糊的和不完整的完整的ØØ需要开发专门的解决方案需要开发专门的解决方案•非程序化决策非程序化决策ØØ具有唯一性和不可重复性的解决方案具有唯一性和不可重复性的解决方案ØØ根据问题制定解决的方案根据问题制定解决的方案ØØ特事特办特事特办 6–76图表图表图表图表 6–8 6–8 程序化决策与非程序化决策程序化决策与非程序化决策程序化决策与非程序化决策程序化决策与非程序化决策 。
