fitch-2010年德国房市研究报告.pdf

Structured Finance 23 June 2010 Commercial Mortgage Germany Performance Report German Multifamily Housing A Performance Update Key Findings • Collateral income: Rental income remains broadly stable despite some minor fluctuations in vacancy rates. • Collateral value: Fitch Ratings’ updated estimates of market value for the portfolio are flat from last year. • Balloon risk: The key risk in the largest transactions remains balloon repayment risk. This is driven by the exceptionally large loan sizes (with the exception of Hallam, they are all over EUR1bn) rather than concerns over collateral quality. Transaction Characteristics GRAND Hallam GRF Immeo 2 Windermere IX a Loan characteristics Number of loans 1 1 1 1 2 Senior debt (EURm) 1,255.4 55.0 287.3 60.0 23.9 Securitised debt (EURm) 5,025.7 184.4 2,379.1 1,282.3 1,252.7 Expected maturity Jul 13 Oct 11 Aug 13 Dec 13 Aug 11/May 13 Final legal maturity Jul 16 Oct 14 Aug 18 Dec 16 Aug 16 Reported LTV (%) 77.7 63.8 68.0 b 67.0 67.4 Reported exit LTV (%) 70.0 62.2 68.0 b 63.2 67.0 Fitch LTV (%) 95.1 69.2 88.4 88.2 81.1 Fitch exit LTV (%) 85.7 67.4 88.4 83.2 79.4 Debt yield (%) 6.9 9.7 7.6 7.1 n.a. Exit debt yield (%) 7.7 10.0 7.6 7.5 n.a. Reported ICR (x) 1.33 1.81 c 2.54 c 1.70 4.20 Property characteristics Market value (EURm) 8,085.6 375.2 3,921.7 b 2,004.9 1,903.0 Valuation date Mar 06 Dec 04 Nov 05 Dec 09 Mar 06/Aug 09 Net cold rent (EURm) 607.0 33.2 269.2 132.7 145.4 Net operating income (EURm) 433.5 d 23.3 d 203.3 95.6 n.a. Lettable area (sq. m) 11,016,523 494,841 4,321,076 2,981,458 2,635,062 Residential rent f (EUR/sq. m/month) 5.07 5.98 5.45 4.97 4.87 Vacancy rate (%) 6.5 6.5 4.7 4.2 5.6 Net yield (%) 5.4 6.2 5.2 4.8 n.a. a Certain numbers have been apportioned as both loans securitised in Windermere IX represent syndicated pieces of larger loans b Based on original market value and changes in lettable area since closing c Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) d Based on profit Outlook Negative (June 2010) • Fitch Affirms Hallam Finance plc (June 2010) • Fitch Affirms German Residential Funding plc (June 2010) • Fitch Affirms Immeo Residential Finance No. 2 Ltd; Outlook Negative (June 2010) • Fitch Affirms Windermere IX CMBS (Multifamily) S.A. (June 2010) • German Multifamily Housing ‐ A Performance Update (March 2009) Structured Finance German Multifamily Housing June 2010 2 Market Update The German residential real estate sector continues to be markedly less affected than other property sub‐sectors by the adverse economic environment. This is especially visible in the occupational market, but is also reflected in continued activity in the investment market, albeit at a lower level than in the boom years of 2005‐2007. Investment Market Only 11 multifamily housing (MFH) portfolios comprising more than 800 units were traded in 2009, the lowest observable level since 1999 1 . The transactions comprised approximately 28,300 units, for a total consideration of EUR1.6bn. The number of transactions increases significantly to over 100 when including smaller portfolio sales, with a total of 56,100 units for a value of EUR3.2bn. This reflects a tendency to trade smaller portfolios that began in 2006; previously, sold portfolios usually comprised at least 2,000 units. The sale of the EUR3.5bn LEG portfolio (93,000 units) in June 2008 skewed both the total volume and average sale price reported in that year. Excluding this transaction from the data demonstrates an overall improvement in market activity in 2009. The shift in investor appetite away from large portfolios reflects the changing nature of active buyers in the market. Between 2004 and 2006, German MFH portfolios were in high demand from international investors, with a number of very large, high‐profile sales occurring. Current buyers are mainly local players such as private investors, private and public housing associations, real estate funds and insurance companies. Current buyers are mainly focused on higher‐quality stock; this was especially visible in 2009, when some above‐average portfolios changed hands (a factor that is likely to influence the reported increase in average sales price). By contrast, investors in the boom years were willing to take on lower‐quality portfolios, with the intention of improving and selling them at a profit. Some of the latter type of 1 Sources for transaction numbers and volumes are BBR Kompakt 1/2009 and 3/2010 (www.bbr.bund.de) and Savills Research ‘German market of residential portfolio transactions in 2009’, published 15 January 2010 (www.savills.de) Geographic Distribution: % of Market Value GRAND Hallam GRF Immeo 2 Windermere IX Western Germany Baden‐Wurttemberg 2.7 0.4 10.2 0.0 0.0 Bavaria 12.6 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 Bremen 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 Hesse 13.6 36.2 5.3 0.0 0.0 Hamburg 0.3 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 Lower Saxony 3.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 North Rhine Westphalia 51.1 38.6 33.6 100.0 0.0 Rhineland Palatinate 3.1 5.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 Saarland 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Schles。