【戴德梁行】2008年第二季度上海工业房地产市场分析报告.pdf

Map of Shanghai ????Contents ??01 Market Overview ??????? 03 Supply ??????? 04 Demand ??????? 07 Forecast ????? 09 Map of China ???????Q2 2008 experienced steady growth across all segments of the industrial real estate market. The steady growth in rental rates, take-up and new supply indicates by all accounts that the current state of the world economy is not impacting this market with the severity as many predicted. China’s economy and specifically its manufacturing base has recently suffered significant production cost increases, inflation, growing labour costs, and escalating land prices that many thought would affect the industrial real estate market. These negative factors have contributed to some companies relocating premises in search of lower cost options, but they have certainly not caused a cooling of the market or general decrease in activity. In many regards, however, the last quarter proved this not to be the case. The strongest indicator that the market remains healthy is high levels of absorption across all three market segments (R they prefer higher income generating activities like R&D centers or Business Parks which are now an encouraged market segment under the Central Government’s most recent initiatives.On the other hand, logistics is an encouraged industry and vital part of the growing Chinese economy. Demand for space is high and both rents and yields remain attractive. We anticipate that this dichotomous position will result in capital rich developers still acquiring the prime plots nearest to the city center, while smaller developers will look to cheaper alternative options further from Shanghai.We foresee continued investment and development of the Yangtze River Delta tier 2 cities such as Jiaxing, Wuxi, Wujiang, Kunshan, Taicang, Changshu, Nantong and many others. The impact of recent labour law changes, escalating land prices will make locating to the smaller cities of the Yangtze River Delta more attractive. Furthermore, several recently announced or completed infrastructure projects will increase the attractiveness of the Yangtze River Delta’s tier 2 cities. These are the Hangzhou Bay Bridge, the Sutong Bridge crossing the Yangtze River, the high speed track connecting Shanghai Hongqiao and Nanjing with stops in Kunshan, Suzhou, Changzhou and Wuxi, and finally a similar train planned to connect Hangzhou and Shanghai. These projects will greatly increase the accessibility of tier 2 and 3 cities in the Yangtze River Delta and further integrate the region. Finally, rising land prices combined with an increasingly attractive investment environment for the aforementioned factors will cause many investors and developers to consider these tier 2 cities as potential destinations for investment.??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????07Forecast??0.97-1.620.800.470.7-0.970.4-0.530.6-0.80.4-0.50.4-0.50.5-1.30.60.40.33-0.470.33-0.40.6-0.71.0-1.8Zones ??Factory Rent (RMB/ sq m/day) ???????????Land Sale Price (USD/sq m) ??????????????Beijing Economic and Technological Development Area ?????????Tianjin Economic and Technological Development Area ?????????Qingdao Economic & Technological Development Zone ?????????Suzhou Industrial Park ?????Wuxi Hi-Tech Industry Development Zone ???????????Hangzhou Economic & Technological Development Area ?????????Ningbo Economic & Technical Development Zone ?????????Nanjing Economic & Technological Development Zone ?????????Guangzhou Development District ?????Shenzhen Grand Zone ??????Chongqing Economic & Technological Development Zone ?????????Chengdu Economic & Technological Development Zone ?????????Wuhan Economic & Technological Development Zone ?????????Dalian Development Area ?????Dalian Hi-tech Industrial Zone ???????????6039-5033443833383879793825254444Latest rental and sales price of major development zones (excluding Shanghai)? ????????????????????????? ??? ???+86 10 85198012 ?????peter.dm.zhang@???????? ?? ???+86 755 82461740 ?????grance.w.gu@dtz-North China, Beijing office Peter Zhang Tel?+86 10 85198012 Email?peter.dm.zhang@South and West China, Shenzhen office Grace Gu Tel?+86 755 82461740 Email?grance.w.gu@dtz-For further information, please contact: DTZ industrial departmentEast and Cent。