顶级太阳能资料Ernesto_Macias.pdf

PV Potential in Sunbelt CountriesPV Potential in Sunbelt CountriesPV Potential in Sunbelt CountriesPV Potential in Sunbelt Countriesand Solutions for Sustainable Rural Electrificationand Solutions for Sustainable Rural Electrificationand Solutions for Sustainable Rural Electrificationand Solutions for Sustainable Rural ElectrificationErnesto MaciasErnesto MaciasErnesto MaciasErnesto MaciasPresident Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE)Ernesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, ARE2 2 22The great PV Potential The great PV Potential The great PV Potential The great PV Potential Approximately 80% of those 1.6 billion people without access to electricity live in tropical regions, with high radiation. The map below clearly shows the great potential of PV power generation within the tropics. It can be said that most tropical regions are enjoy an irradiation potential above 2,000 kWh/kWp.Ernesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, ARE3 3 33The population is concentrated where the sun radiation is higherExcluding developed countries with GDP/Capita> $20 000 except Kuwait Source: World Bank; IMFSelected CountriesIn scope countriesIn scope countriesIn scope countriesIn scope countriesAll Sunbelt countriesAll Sunbelt countriesAll Sunbelt countriesAll Sunbelt countries(1)(1)(1)(1)WorldWorldWorldWorldCountries (2007)Countries (2007)Countries (2007)Countries (2007)63130209Population (2007)Population (2007)Population (2007)Population (2007)4.8 billion5 billion6.5 billionGDP (2007)GDP (2007)GDP (2007)GDP (2007)11.2 trillion11.5 trillion53.5 trillion35353535° ° °°S S SS35353535° ° °°N N NN0 0 00° ° °°SunbeltSunbeltSunbeltSunbeltErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, ARE4 4 44The market today (2009)The market today (2009)The market today (2009)The market today (2009)Germany: 4.193 MWpGermany: 4.193 MWpGermany: 4.193 MWpGermany: 4.193 MWpResResResRest t t t ofofofofEurope: 2.611 MWpEurope: 2.611 MWpEurope: 2.611 MWpEurope: 2.611 MWpJapan: 475 MWpJapan: 475 MWpJapan: 475 MWpJapan: 475 MWpUSA: 474 MWpUSA: 474 MWpUSA: 474 MWpUSA: 474 MWpSunbelt regionSunbelt regionSunbelt regionSunbelt regionEurope, USA, Japan: Europe, USA, Japan: Europe, USA, Japan: Europe, USA, Japan: 7.753 MWp7.753 MWp7.753 MWp7.753 MWpRest of the World: 160 MWp (Sunbelt Region)Rest of the World: 160 MWp (Sunbelt Region)Rest of the World: 160 MWp (Sunbelt Region)Rest of the World: 160 MWp (Sunbelt Region)Total 2009 demand: Total 2009 demand: Total 2009 demand: Total 2009 demand: 7.913 MWp 7.913 MWp 7.913 MWp 7.913 MWp Ernesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, ARE5 5 55Today the market is in the north, where the radiation is lower and, consequently, the generation costs are higher.PV is now competitive in sunbelt countries with some conventional energy sourcesThe PV paradoxThe PV paradoxThe PV paradoxThe PV paradoxErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, ARE6 6 66PV potential in sunbelt countriesPV potential in sunbelt countriesPV potential in sunbelt countriesPV potential in sunbelt countriesSouthern Europe: Malta, Cyprus, Greece and Spain Source: IEA WEO 2008, Nasa, World Bank, A.T. Kearney AnalysisBackgroundBackgroundBackgroundBackground• Lack of access to electricity inhibits 1.6 billion people in developing countries from long term economic and social development • The electricity consumption in those countries is forecasted to grow significantly within the next 20 years • These countries will need to largely invest to meet demand • The electricity infrastructure in these countries is often poor (lack of stability and availability) • Unavailability of fuel (e.g. due to difficult transport), causes often power shortagesGeographyGeographyGeographyGeography• 80% of people without electricity live in tropical regions with high irradiation • Irradiation in 80% of these countries is significantly higher than in Southern Europe(1)World Irradiation MapWorld Irradiation MapWorld Irradiation MapWorld Irradiation MapRationale for PV power in developing countriesRationale for PV power in developing countriesRationale for PV power in developing countriesRationale for PV power in developing countries• PV power generation cost is competitive in many developing countries due to the high irradiation • It is a decentralized solution well adapted to often poor electricity infrastructures (saving high grid energy losses, lack of intra- connections,…) • It could help developing countries to meet their energy demand with following advantages – Enhanced country energy supply independence – Environmental friendly solution with no carbon emission – Expanded energy access to meet fast growing demandErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, AREErnesto Macias, ARE7 7 77Study: Potential of on-grid Photovoltaic Solar Energy in Study: Potential of on-grid Photovoltaic Solar Energy i。