行业关键数据更新-20170215-国泰君安国际-24页.pdf

Critical Sector Data Update Research Department 行业行业关键关键数据数据更新更新 研究部研究部 15 February 2017 Sector: Oil HSBC; Sector: Steel, Cement and Construction Materials Figure 25 1-Y Steel Prices Figure 26 10-Y Steel Prices 一年钢材价格一年钢材价格 十十年年钢材价格钢材价格 Wire Rod Hot Rolled Cold Rolled 20mm Medium Plate YTD 8.1% 3.7% 1.0% 3.5% YTD YOY 70.2% 88.0% 74.0% 78.5% wow 0.7% -0.3% 0.1% 0.2% mom 1.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% yoy 79.9% 92.8% 75.2% 84.3% 52w H / L 3528 / 2048 3918 / 2009 4801 / 2738 3709 / 1975 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17 Wire Rod (RMB/Tonne) Hot Rolled (RMBTonne) Cold Rolled (RMB/Tonne) 20mm Medium Plate (RMB/Tonne) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Wire Rod (RMB/Tonne) Hot Rolled (RMBTonne) Cold Rolled (RMB/Tonne) 20mm Medium Plate (RMB/Tonne) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 15 February 2017 Page 4 of 24 Sector: Aviation, Automobiles Figure 27 2-Y Cement prices 两两年国内水泥价格年国内水泥价格 North China North East East China Central China YTD 0.0% 0.0% -3.7% -0.9% YTD YOY 28.9% 3.0% 25.3% 35.3% wow 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.4% mom 0.0% 0.0% -2.0% -0.9% yoy 29.0% 5.0% 25.4% 35.2% 52w H/L 310 / 228 347 / 288 332 / 241 364 / 259 South China South West North West YTD -1.4% -1.5% 0.3% YTD YOY 36.5% 35.3% 23.7% wow 0.0% -0.6% 0.0% mom -0.7% -1.2% 0.0% yoy 36.0% 34.3% 24.0% 52w H/L 387 / 272 350 / 254 314 / 248 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Feb/15 May/15 Aug/15Nov/15 Feb/16 May/16 Aug/16Nov/16 Feb/17 North China (RMB/Tonne) South West (RMB/Tonne) North East (RMB/Tonne) East China (RMB/Tonne) Central China (RMB/Tonne) South China (RMB/Tonne) North West (RMB/Tonne) Source: China Cement Association Figure 28: 6-Y RPK for Highway, Inland River, Coastal Area , Total - Exclude Railway and Others are 01/2017. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Railway Corporation Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Railway Corporation See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 15 February 2017 Page 19 of 24 Sector: Consumer (Retailing) Figure 103 1-Y Urban FAI Figure 104 12-Y Urban FAI 一年城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（一年城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（累计累计同同 比）比） 十十二二年年城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（累累 计计同比）同比） Total Urban Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry yoy 6.5% 13.3% 5.4% 6.9% YTD yoy 8.1% 21.1% 3.5% 10.9% 52w H / L 10.7% / 8.1% 34.3% / 20.6% 8.0% / 2.9% 12.6% / 10.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Dec-15Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16 Total Urban FAI (Cumulative YoY) Primary Industry (Cumulative YoY) Secondary Industry (Cumulative YoY) Tertiary Industry (Cumulative YoY) -30% 10% 50% 90% 130% 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Total Urban FAI (Cumulative YoY) Primary Industry (Cumulative YoY) Secondary Industry (Cumulative YoY) Tertiary Industry (Cumulative YoY) Note: Latest data in Figures 103-104 are 12/2016. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Figure 105 1-Y Transportation Statistics Figure 106 8-Y Transportation Statistics 一年公路旅客货运量统计一年公路旅客货运量统计 八年公路旅客货运量统计八年公路旅客货运量统计 Passenger Number Freight Volume Freight Turnover YTD YOY -3.5% 6.8% 5.6% mom 16.4% 5.3% 0.0% yoy 10.9% 17.8% 10.5% 52w H / L 14.5 / 11.9 33.7 / 14.4 5954.9 / 2597.6 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16 Passenger Number YoY Freight Volume YoY Freight Turnover YoY -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 2008/12 2009/08 2010/04 2010/12 2011/08 2012/04 2012/12 2013/08 2014/04 2014/12 2015/08 2016/04 2016/12 Passenger Number YoYFreight Volume YoYFreight Turnover YoY Note: Latest data in Figures 105-106 are 12/2016. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Figure 107 10-Y Monthly Social Retail Sales YoY Figure 108 Yearly Comparison of Social Retail Sales Growth 十十年社会消费品零售总额月度同比年社会消费品零售总额月度同比 社社会消费品零售总额年度增速对比会消费品零售总额年度增速对比 Retail Sales Growth: Monthly YTD YOY 10.4% mom 0.89% yoy 10.9% 52w H / L 11.1% / 10.0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 Dec/06Dec/07Dec/08Dec/09Dec/10Dec/11Dec/12Dec/13Dec/14Dec/15Dec/16 % 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec %2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Latest data in Figures 107-108 are 12/2016. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 15 February 2017 Page 20 of 24 Sector: Consumer (Apparel) Figure 109 5-Y Retail Sales Growth of Clothing and Textile above Designated Size Monthly YoY 五年限额以上服装鞋帽零售额月度同比五年限额以上服装鞋帽零售额月度同比 Retail sales growth of clothing and textile YTD YOY 7.0% yoy 7.1% 52w H / L 9.4% / 4.4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 41% Feb/11 Apr/11 Jun/11 Aug/11 Oct/11 Dec/11 Feb/12 Apr/12 Jun/12 Aug/12 Oct/12 Dec/12 Feb/13 Apr/13 Jun/13 Aug/13 Oct/13 Dec/13 Feb/14 Apr/14 Ju。