硕士论文-造船企业船东风险问题研究

1、摘 要摘 要船东风险是造船企业面临的最主要的风险之一。船东风险由于持续时间长、发生的后果对船企造成的损失大，并且由于受航运市场波动的影响具有很大的不确定性，因此船东风险问题应该受到决策者的重视。本文深入分析了造船企业面临的船东风险问题，包括造船企业面临的风险体系、船东风险的主要行为表现以及船东风险的影响因素；在船东风险评估体系的基础上，应用模糊层次分析法建立船东风险评估模型，通过船东风险评估模型，对国内D船厂的国外船东T和船东M进行了风险评估，并对二者的风险进行了比较分析；建立船东风险控制体系，对造船企业的船东风险控制提出了若干建议。最后，结合船东风险分析、船东风险评估和船东风险控制，初步建立船东风险管理机制。 本文对于船东风险问题的研究，主要的创新点体现在两个方面：一是通过船东风险评估模型将对船东风险的模糊判断，转化成风险数值，以定量直观的形式将船东风险及影响船东风险的内外部特征的评估值呈现出来，为船厂对船东风险分析与接单决策提供技术支持；另一方面，建立船东风险控制体系及船东风险管理机制，为造船企业的船东风险管理提供技术支持和决策参考。关键词 船东；风险；造船；模糊层次分析法IAbs

2、tractAbstractShipowners risk is one of the most important risks that shipbuilders face. Because of its long duration, serious consequences if happens and great uncertainty affected by fluctuation of shipping market, the issue of shipowners risk should be paid much attention by decision maker of shipbuilders.This paper analyses the issue of shipowners risk for shipbuilder deeply, including the risk system that shipbuilders face, the behavioral expression and influence factor of shipowners risk; s

3、etting up the risk assessment model of shipowners through F-AHP taking into account pre-established shipowners risk structure; measuring the risks of shipowner T and shipowner M of domestic shipyard D, then making the relative evaluations; setting up the risk control system and giving some recommendations about risk control of shipowners for shipbuilders. Finally, setting up the risk management mechanism of shipowners taking account into the risk analysis, risk assessment and risk control of shi

4、powners.There are two innovation points in this papers research on issue of shipowners risk: one is the conversion from vague judgments about shipowners risk to risk value applying the risk assessment model of shipowners, showing the shipowners risk and evaluation scores of internal and external factors that affect shipowners risk intuitively, providing technical support for risk analysis of shipowners and order taking strategy. The other is the establishment of risk control system and shipowner

5、s risk management mechanism, supporting the risk management of shipowners.Key words Shipowner; Risk; Shipbuilding; Fuzzy AHPI目 录目 录摘 要IAbstractI目 录I第1章 绪 论11.1 选题背景11.2 研究现状21.2.1 风险研究现状21.2.2 造船企业风险研究现状51.2.3 造船企业船东风险研究现状61.3 研究意义、思路和方法61.3.1 研究意义61.3.2 论文思路及结构框架71.3.3 研究方法81.4论文创新点.8 1.5 本章小结8第2章 造船企业风险概述92.1 风险概念及特征92.1.1 风险的概念92.1.2 风险的特征92.2 造船企业风险概述102.2.1 造船企业风险内涵102.2.2 造船企业风险分类102.2.3 造船企业的风险分析122.2.4 船东风险是造船企业风险主要组成部分172.3 本章小结18第3章 风险视角下船东与船厂关系193.1 船东定义193.2 船东分类193.3 船东订船动因203.3.1 船

6、队更新需求213.3.2 调整船队船种结构213.3.3 扩充船队运力213.3.4 预期船价上涨213.3.5羊群效应影响223.4 船东供需角色重叠性223.5 船厂对航运市场依赖性223.6 船厂与船东关于船价的博弈233.6.1 船厂与船东关于付款方式及付款货币的博弈233.6.2 船厂与船东讨价还价模型243.7 本章小结28第4章 船东风险分析304.1 船东风险涵义304.2 船东风险主要行为表现304.2.1 拖欠船款304.2.2 延期接船304.2.3 修改船型314.2.4 在建船转售324.2.5 重谈船价324.2.6 撤销订单334.2.7 船东弃船344.3船东风险影响因素344.3.1 影响船东风险内部特征因素344.3.2 影响船东风险外部特征因素354.4 本章小结36第5章 船东风险评估375.1 确定船东风险评估方法375.1.1 评估方法选择375.1.2 模糊综合评判理论375.2 船东风险F-AHP综合评估模型395.2.1 船东风险评估指标体系395.2.2 评估指标权重确定（层次分析法）415.2.3 船东风险模糊综合评估455.3 船

7、东风险评估实证研究465.3.1 船东T风险评估分析465.3.2 船东M风险评估分析495.3.3 船东T和船东M评估结果比较515.3.4 船东风险评估实证研究小结525.4 本章小结53第6章 造船企业船东风险管理机制初步构建546.1 船东风险控制体系546.1.1 船东信息管理546.1.2 船东合同管理586.1.3 应收账款管理606.1.4 拖欠账款管理616.2 船东风险管理保障机制616.2.1 设置船东风险管理部门616.2.2 船东风险管理制度626.3 本章小结62结论及展望63参考文献64攻读硕士学位期间发表学术论文66致 谢68IContentsContentsChinese abstractIAbstractIChapter 1 Introduction11.1 Research background11.2 Present research situation21.2.1 Present research situation of risk21.2.2 Present research situation of shipbuilders risk51.

8、2.3 Present research situation of shipowners risk for shipbuilder61.3 Research significance, ideas and methods61.3.1 Research significance61.3.2 Structure and framework of paper71.3.3 Research methods8 1.4 Innovation of this paper.81.5 Summary8Chapter 2 Overview of shipbuilders risk92.1 Concept and character of risk92.1.1 Concept of risk92.1.2 Character of risk92.2 Overview of shipbuilders risk102.2.1 Meaning of shipbuilders risk102.2.2 Classification of shipbuilders risk102.2.3 Analysis of shipbuilders risk122.2.4 Shipowners risk is is a major component of shipbuilders risks172.3 Summary18Chapter 3 Relation between shipowner and shibuilder in view of risk193.1 Definition of shipowner193.2 Classification of shipowner193.3 Ordering motivation of shipowner 203.3.1 Demand of fleet renew213.3.2 Shiptype adjustment213.3.3 Fleet expansion213.3.4 Ship price rise expectation213.3.5 Impact of herding223.4 Overlapping roles of supply and demand of the shipowner223.5 Depend

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