大摩-2023年全球宏观经济展望报告（英）-2022.11.19-196正式版
Matthew.HGuneet.DAndrew.WFrancesco.GMartin.TJames.LDavid.S.AWanting.LJohn.KEric.OTheologis.CLorenzo.TMarie-Anais.FKoichi.SMORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCMatthew HornbachSTRATEGIST+1 212 761-1837Guneet Dhingra,CFASTRATEGIST+1 212 761-1445Andrew M WatrousSTRATEGIST+1 212 761-5287Francesco GrechiSTRATEGIST+1 212 761-1009Martin W Tobias,CFASTRATEGIST+1 212 761-6076MORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+James K LordSTRATEGIST+44 20 7677-3254David S.Adams,CFASTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-3518Wanting LowSTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-6841John KalamarasSTRATEGIST+44 20 7677-2969Eric S OynoyanSTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-1945Theologis Chapsalis,CFASTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-3330Lorenzo TestaSTRATEGIST+44 20 7677-0337Marie-Anais C FrancoisSTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-1877MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO.,LTD.+Koichi SugisakiSTRATEGIST+81 3 6836-84282023 Global Macro Strategy Outlook2023 Global Macro Strategy OutlookSticking the Soft LandingAfter a few years of unlikely events driving macro markets,2023 should offer yet another one:a soft landing for the USeconomy.Weak global growth and less CPI inflation allow theFed to pause,driving US rates and the US dollar lower,solvinga lot of problems and salvaging the soft landing.Interest Rate StrategyIn the US,we expect Treasury yields to move lower gradually over 2023,led by declining 2-year yields.We see 10-year Treasury yields trading in arange around 3.75%by the middle of 2023,and around 3.50%by the endof 2023.We suggest owning a 3m10y butterfly trade.We see the 2s10s and2s30s curves steeper than forwards by year-end,but see that steepeningconcentrated in 2H23.In the euro area,we think that Bund yields peaked at 2.50%in October.After staying in a trading range until early 1Q23,we expect the 10y Bundyield to decline to 1.60%by 2Q23,and the 2s10s slope to graduallysteepen,supported by the start of ECB QT.We keep our EUR 5y5y swapreceiving trade.We close the long EUR 5y5y inflation swap,which is tradingvery rich.We keep our EUR 30s50s swap steepeners.A second implicationof ECB QT should be a continuation of the cheapening in core/semi-coreversus swap.We keep our short Bobl ASW with a new target in the low-50s.Regarding peripherals,we enter BTP 2s10s flatteners versus Bundsteepeners.In the UK,we expect a bull steepening of the gilt curve as the BoEmoderates the pace of rate hikes as growth concerns emerge and spendingremains under control.We recommend long IL28,short IL51,short sell UKT1F 71vs50y SONIA swaps,received 30y SONIA and long 30y RPI swaps.In Japan,we expect the 10y JGB yield to reach 0.5%once the BoJ shortensits 10y yield target to 5y,in 3Q2023.We expect a flattening of the 10y+curve toward 4Q2023.We discuss how the JGB yield curve will develop asthe BoJ tweaks its YCC.We maintain JGB 20s40s flattener and long 20yJGB ASW vs ESTR compound,and enter JGB 7s30s ASW box flattener.In the dollar bloc,we expect yields to drift lower as slowing growth weighson inflation and policy expectations.Australian and New Zealand yieldslevel shift lower while the Canadian curve bull steepens.Currency&Foreign ExchangeWe forecast USD weakness into 2023 as falling real yields and widerbreakevens generate widespread USD weakness,though the magnitudemay be limited by anemic global growth,high US carry,and persistentMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As aresult,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofMorgan Stanley Research.Investors should considerMorgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of thisreport.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are notregistered with FINRA,may not be associated persons ofthe member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictionson communications with a subject company,publicappearances and trading securities held by a researchanalyst account.1November 19,2022 12:17 AM GMTuncertainty.EUR/USD should be propelled higher by repatriation flowsand elevated local capital demand.USD/JPY could go lower,given the endof the policy divergence narrative in 2023.GBP should be a key laggard inG10 next year given its extremely weak growth outlook.Risk-sensitiveEuropean currencies gain,with EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK both falling to 9.60and 10.30 by end-2023.EUR/CHF rises to 1.02,but the move is gradualgiven ongoing uncertainty and continued focus by the SNB on the currency.We see AUD/USD at 0.70 as domestic growth outperforms;NZD/USD riseeven more as the RBNZ reaches an elevated terminal rate.A soft landing inthe US and rising oil prices weighs on USD/CAD,lowering it to 1.29.FX-implied volatility falls in 2023 as financial conditions peak,USD weakens,global bond yields move lower,and global risk sentiment improves.Inflation-Linked BondsIn the US,we see real yields leading the move lower in nominal rates overthe next year,with a small widening in breakevens.
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Matthew.HGuneet.DAndrew.WFrancesco.GMartin.TJames.LDavid.S.AWanting.LJohn.KEric.OTheologis.CLorenzo.TMarie-Anais.FKoichi.SMORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCMatthew HornbachSTRATEGIST+1 212 761-1837Guneet Dhingra,CFASTRATEGIST+1 212 761-1445Andrew M WatrousSTRATEGIST+1 212 761-5287Francesco GrechiSTRATEGIST+1 212 761-1009Martin W Tobias,CFASTRATEGIST+1 212 761-6076MORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+James K LordSTRATEGIST+44 20 7677-3254David S.Adams,CFASTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-3518Wanting LowSTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-6841John KalamarasSTRATEGIST+44 20 7677-2969Eric S OynoyanSTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-1945Theologis Chapsalis,CFASTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-3330Lorenzo TestaSTRATEGIST+44 20 7677-0337Marie-Anais C FrancoisSTRATEGIST+44 20 7425-1877MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO.,LTD.+Koichi SugisakiSTRATEGIST+81 3 6836-84282023 Global Macro Strategy Outlook2023 Global Macro Strategy OutlookSticking the Soft LandingAfter a few years of unlikely events driving macro markets,2023 should offer yet another one:a soft landing for the USeconomy.Weak global growth and less CPI inflation allow theFed to pause,driving US rates and the US dollar lower,solvinga lot of problems and salvaging the soft landing.Interest Rate StrategyIn the US,we expect Treasury yields to move lower gradually over 2023,led by declining 2-year yields.We see 10-year Treasury yields trading in arange around 3.75%by the middle of 2023,and around 3.50%by the endof 2023.We suggest owning a 3m10y butterfly trade.We see the 2s10s and2s30s curves steeper than forwards by year-end,but see that steepeningconcentrated in 2H23.In the euro area,we think that Bund yields peaked at 2.50%in October.After staying in a trading range until early 1Q23,we expect the 10y Bundyield to decline to 1.60%by 2Q23,and the 2s10s slope to graduallysteepen,supported by the start of ECB QT.We keep our EUR 5y5y swapreceiving trade.We close the long EUR 5y5y inflation swap,which is tradingvery rich.We keep our EUR 30s50s swap steepeners.A second implicationof ECB QT should be a continuation of the cheapening in core/semi-coreversus swap.We keep our short Bobl ASW with a new target in the low-50s.Regarding peripherals,we enter BTP 2s10s flatteners versus Bundsteepeners.In the UK,we expect a bull steepening of the gilt curve as the BoEmoderates the pace of rate hikes as growth concerns emerge and spendingremains under control.We recommend long IL28,short IL51,short sell UKT1F 71vs50y SONIA swaps,received 30y SONIA and long 30y RPI swaps.In Japan,we expect the 10y JGB yield to reach 0.5%once the BoJ shortensits 10y yield target to 5y,in 3Q2023.We expect a flattening of the 10y+curve toward 4Q2023.We discuss how the JGB yield curve will develop asthe BoJ tweaks its YCC.We maintain JGB 20s40s flattener and long 20yJGB ASW vs ESTR compound,and enter JGB 7s30s ASW box flattener.In the dollar bloc,we expect yields to drift lower as slowing growth weighson inflation and policy expectations.Australian and New Zealand yieldslevel shift lower while the Canadian curve bull steepens.Currency&Foreign ExchangeWe forecast USD weakness into 2023 as falling real yields and widerbreakevens generate widespread USD weakness,though the magnitudemay be limited by anemic global growth,high US carry,and persistentMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As aresult,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofMorgan Stanley Research.Investors should considerMorgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of thisreport.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are notregistered with FINRA,may not be associated persons ofthe member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictionson communications with a subject company,publicappearances and trading securities held by a researchanalyst account.1November 19,2022 12:17 AM GMTuncertainty.EUR/USD should be propelled higher by repatriation flowsand elevated local capital demand.USD/JPY could go lower,given the endof the policy divergence narrative in 2023.GBP should be a key laggard inG10 next year given its extremely weak growth outlook.Risk-sensitiveEuropean currencies gain,with EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK both falling to 9.60and 10.30 by end-2023.EUR/CHF rises to 1.02,but the move is gradualgiven ongoing uncertainty and continued focus by the SNB on the currency.We see AUD/USD at 0.70 as domestic growth outperforms;NZD/USD riseeven more as the RBNZ reaches an elevated terminal rate.A soft landing inthe US and rising oil prices weighs on USD/CAD,lowering it to 1.29.FX-implied volatility falls in 2023 as financial conditions peak,USD weakens,global bond yields move lower,and global risk sentiment improves.Inflation-Linked BondsIn the US,we see real yields leading the move lower in nominal rates overthe next year,with a small widening in breakevens.
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