2022技术趋势报告-658页

TECH TRENDS 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Table of Contents Table of Contents Methodology & Frameworks News & Information Decentralization & Blockchain 00 01 05 10 11 PAGE 03 PAGE 236 PAGE 458 Artificial Intelligence PAGE 38 Health & Medicine PAGE 268 Telecommunications & Computing PAGE 509 06 07 08 09 Recognition, Scoring & Privacy PAGE 101 Home of Things PAGE 307 Synthetic Biology, Biotechnology & AgTech PAGE 543 02 03 04 12 13 Metaverse, AR/VR & Synthetic Media PAGE 151 Policy, Government & Security PAGE 331 Climate, Energy & Space PAGE 588 Work, Culture & Play PAGE 194 Logistics, Robotics & Transportation PAGE 395 © 2022 Future Today Institute 15th Edition • 2022 Tech Trends Report Vol. 00    The Future Today Institute's process for identifying, tracking and using trends. 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Methodology & Frameworks At the Future Today Institute, we value learning and strive to make our work accessible to all. We publish this companion to our annual report each year in order to show the process we used to research, model, prioritize and validate trends. We also demonstrate the steps we took to research, develop and pressure-test our scenarios. Showing our work and revealing our quantitative and qualitative data sources demonstrates both the rigor, and the strategic value, of foresight. © 2022 Future Today Institute TABLE OF CONTENTS 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Methodology & Frameworks Table of Contents 06 08 09 10 11 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends Overview Seven-Step Forecasting Funnel Time Cone How to Do Strategic Planning Like a Futurist 12 13 Scenarios The 11 Sources of Macro Disruption 18 19 Trend vs. Trendy: Knowing the Difference Identifying Signals and Trends: Fringe Sketching 20 21 Recognizing Patterns Axes of Uncertainty S-SWOT Analysis 22 23 24 27 32 33 34 35 Assumptions vs. Knowledge Strategic Foresight Team Trends in Action About Future Today Institute Disclaimer Creative Commons License 5 © 2022 Future Today Institute EMERGING SOURCETRENDS 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Methodology & Frameworks 6 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Recognition, Scoring & Privacy Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now Macro Forces and Emerging Trends 1 4TH YEAR ON THE LIST Scoring For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re- searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result. Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our futures. Our 15th annual Tech Trends Report identif es new opportunities for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business. We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries, including all levels of government. For those in creative f elds, you will f nd a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination. 2 3 4 5 KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Scoring systems are IntheU.S.,wehaveacreditreporting systemthatmeasuresourcreditworthi- ness.Banks,fnancialinstitutions,and othersusethesescorestodetermine thelikelihoodthatwemightdefaulton aloanoramortgage.Financialcredit scoringisavailabletoallconsumers— wecanrequestcopiesofourfnancial creditscores,checktheiraccuracy,and correcterrors.Now,hundredsoftypes ofdataarebeingharnessedtoassign usscores.However,unlikethecredit reportingsystem,whichisfederally regulatedandfollowssetprocesses,this kindofdataisn’tsubjecttoenforceable rules.Itcanbeimpossibletofndout whatourscoresare,howtheyarebeing calculated,andhowtocorrectinaccu- racies. Advancementindataminingand artifcialintelligencepromisebothnew opportunitiesandpotentialviolationsof privacyasbusinessesandlawenforce- mentimplementscoringsystemson newplatforms.Additionalriskcomes fromChinasellingitsgovernment-fund- edscoringtools,whichcanbeusedon bothindividualsandcorporations,to authoritarianregimeselsewhereinthe world.Evenasnewpracticalusecases becomeapparentforscoringofthis technology. • • • • • • Density PiwikPro Wakeft leaving an indelible mark on all individuals. For some, scoring systems create advantages DynamicYield AccessNow OsKeyesandtheUniversityof Washington’sDepartmentofHuman CenteredDesign&Engineering and enhanced user experiences. For others, inherent biases and a lack of available data