世界经济论坛-加密货币和稳定币的宏观经济影响（英）-2022.7-54页

The Macroeconomic Impact of Cryptocurrency and Stablecoins W H I T E P A P E R J U L Y 2 0 2 2 Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. © 2022 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The Macroeconomic Impact of Cryptocurrency and Stablecoins 2 Cover: Lemon_tm, Getty Images – Inside: Getty Images, Unsplash Contents 4 5 Foreword Preface 5 Defining cryptocurrency and stablecoins 8 Executive summary 9 Introduction 10 11 14 14 16 18 19 20 19 23 24 28 30 30 30 35 36 37 39 39 40 41 42 45 46 48 Scope of work 1 Summary of work done to date 2 Problem statement Current state and market size Data limitations 3 Criteria 4 Cryptocurrency: macroeconomic impacts Economic outcomes of various cryptocurrency regulation alternatives Scenario 1 Let present trends continue Scenario 2 Ban the use of cryptocurrency (on a country-by-country basis) Scenario 3 Let cryptocurrency play a regulated role within the economy Scenario 4 Make cryptocurrency legal tender 5 Fiat-backed stablecoins: macroeconomic impacts Economic outcomes of various stablecoin regulation alternatives Scenario 1 Let present trends continue Scenario 2 Allow private fiat-backed stablecoins to play a regulated role in the economy Scenario 3 Tax or ban private fiat-backed stablecoins out of existence 6 Economic analysis of regulatory options 7 Recommendations For policy-makers For businesses Conclusion Glossary Contributors Acknowledgements Endnotes The Macroeconomic Impact of Cryptocurrency and Stablecoins 3 Foreword Kathryn White Project Fellow and Initiative Lead, Blockchain and Digital Assets, World Economic Forum; Associate Director, Technology Innovation – Next Economies, Accenture, USA With the aim of mitigating risks to financial stability, safety and equity while broadening financial access and enabling innovation, cryptocurrencies and stablecoins should play a regulated role in economies. 4. Sudden job loss within crypto firms that grew too quickly, with some companies blaming a “dramatic shift in macroeconomic conditions worldwide” for the lay-offs. 5 5. Individual investors have lost funds and, in some cases, their life savings. However, Goldman Sachs calculates US consumer losses at only about 0.3% of American During the final weeks of authoring this report, the cryptocurrency market entered into a free fall, experiencing a loss of 50% year-to-date and, at points, surpassing $2 trillion in losses. household wealth. 6 This kicked off a crypto “bear market”, known by some in the crypto industry as “crypto winter”, a downslope with no definite ending, though optimistically followed by a springtime resurgence. Many of the macroeconomic predictions described in this paper for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins played out in real time. Some of the immediate impacts during this downturn are: The downturn will reveal which crypto companies have strong business models. This paper analyses the more holistic macroeconomic effects that we may see playing out in the near future, against an illustrative continuum of posed regulatory scenarios. As we move into increasingly uncertain economic times, coordinated domestic and global regulation is needed to mitigate the risks to financial stability, safety and equity while broadening financial access and enabling innovation. 1. Spillover effects and market contagion to other parts of the crypto industry, the traditional financial system and companies exposed to the crypto market. Some of the spillover effects are In this context, the World Economic Forum has been working with members of the public and private sectors, civil society and academia to highlight what history has taught us about financial risk. The Digital Currency Governance Consortium (DCGC) community – comprising a global, multi- sector set of more than 85 leading organizations – continues to discuss the potential solutions and regulatory paths for the future to enable continued encouragement of the responsible roll-out and adoption of digital currencies. We will be publishing the DCGC’s second phase of work in two releases: caused, for example, by leveraged investing 1 such as margin trading, where investors use borrowed gains to reinvest in other assets in order to seek higher investment profits overall. 2 2. L