2021年第3季度天然气市场报告（英）-2021

Gas Market Report Q3-2021 including Gas 2021 - Analysis and forecast to 2024 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States IEA association countries: Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org Abstract Gas Market Report Q2-2021 Abstract Natural gas markets started off the year with a strong rebound, supported by a combination of recovering economic activity in most markets along with a series of weather-related events – cold spells in Q1 followed by colder or drier than average temperatures in Q2. Rising demand in 2021 is expected to offset 2020’s decline and even grow further with an anticipated 3.6% annual increase. Demand growth is, however, not expected to maintain this pace in the medium term, but rather to slow to an average 1.7% annual rate for the 2022-2024 period, equally driven by economic activity and fuel switching from coal and oil. This slower growth may still be too high to match a net-zero emissions path, which requires higher substitution rates and efficiency gains – especially in mature markets, where most of the switching potential from coal and oil to gas has already been realised. This new quarterly report offers a medium-term forecast and analysis of global gas markets to 2024, as well as a review of recent developments in major regional gas markets during the first half of 2021. PAGE | 2 Table of contents Gas Market Report Q3-2021 Table of contents Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024 ...................................................... 4 Overview and key findings ........................................................................ 5 Demand .......................................................................................................... 9 Supply .......................................................................................................... 38 Tracking clean gas progress ........................................................................ 48 Trade ............................................................................................................ 61 Gas market update and short-term forecast ............................................... 75 Annex .............................................................................................................. 99 PAGE | 3 Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024 Gas Market Report Q3-2021 Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024 PAGE | 4 Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024 Gas Market Report Q3-2021 economic activity can explain almost two-thirds (270 bcm), while the substitution of coal (and oil to a lesser extent) explains the rest (160 bcm). Strong natural gas demand growth in 2021 is mostly the result of the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. Growth in 2022-2024 is driven in equal proportions by economic activity and fuel substitution. Overview and key findings Global natural gas demand dropped by 1.9%, or 75 bcm, in 2020 because of an exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphere and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. We forecast global demand to rebound by 3.6% in 2021. And unless major policy changes to curb global gas consumption are introduced, demand is set to keep growing in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace, to reach nearly 4 300 bcm by 2024, a 7% rise from pre-Covid levels. In spite of this limited medium-term growth, our forecast for global gas demand in 2024 is above what is called for in the IEA’s climate- driven scenarios, notably in the recent special report Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. To get on track f