2021年第4季度天然气市场报告（英）-100页

Gas Market Report Q4-2021 including Global Gas Security Review 2021 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States IEA association countries: Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org Abstract Gas Market Report Q4-2021 Abstract Winter 2021/22 opens with record high seasonal gas prices, as the combination of a strong recovery in demand, extreme weather events and unplanned supply outages have led to tighter markets. Such tensions are a reminder that security of supply remains a major topic for gas markets, only a year after a record drop in demand and oversupplied markets. The succession of market events over the past year further illustrates the critical role flexibility plays in ensuring security and continuity of supply. Flexible liquefied natural gas trade – alongside other major components of the gas flexibility toolbox such as interconnectors and storage capacity – has been and remains instrumental to adjusting to sharp and unexpected demand swings (both up and down). Delivering flexible and yet secure supply is likely to become more complex for systems in transition as they switch to low-carbon gas to reach net zero emission objectives. Regulators should therefore adopt a prudent and scalable approach to market design to ensure security of supply in a transitioning gas system. This new quarterly report includes a review of gas security in light of recent supply-related developments, and an analysis of short-term gas market evolution to 2022. PAGE | 2 Table of contents Gas Market Report Q4-2021 Storm Uri brought a cold spell to Texas not seen in decades… .......... 23 Table of contents …driving up electricity and natural gas demand on higher space heating requirements ............................................................................ 24 Gas Market Report Q4 2021 including Global Gas Security Review 2021 1 Abstract .................................................................................................. 2 Table of contents ................................................................................... 3 Global Gas Security Review 2021 .................................................................. 6 Main findings .......................................................................................... 7 Review of recent gas security-related events ................................................ 9 January 2021: Cold spell in Northeast Asia ............................................ 10 Surge in electricity demand combined with weather-related power generation outages led to rotating power cuts in Texas....................... 25 The natural gas system faced several outages along the supply chain… ................................................................................................. 26 …with half of the decline in Texan gas production occurring before the start of the power cuts .......................................................................... 27 Upstream underperformance and power cuts put additional stress on the gas system ..................................................................................... 28 The winter crisis in Northeast Asia led to record high LNG prices and repercussions across Asia ................................................................... 11 Storage withdrawals and optimisation of gas flows could not avoid a short gas system .................................................................................. 29 Japan: Local electricity market tightness and global LNG bottlenecks push prices to record levels ..............