东亚及太平洋经济最新报告-50页

WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2021 LONG COVID WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE, OCTOBER 2021 Long COVID © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 24 23 22 21 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2021. “Long COVID” East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (October), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1799-1. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1799-1 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1799-1 Cover photo: Group of students wearing protective mask to Protect Against COVID-19 by Cavan Images © Getty Images. Used with the permission of Getty Images. Further permission required for reuse. LONG COVID Contents Executive Summary Long COVID x 1 Part I. Recent Developments 1 1 What Is Happening to the Economy? What Explains Economic Performance? What Are the Near-Term Economic Risks? What Are the Policy Priorities for Recovery? 3 10 11 Part II. Growth and Inequality The Longer-Term Economic Risks Firms and Technology 17 17 19 23 26 Households and Inequality Policies for Equitable Growth Appendix Tables References 31 34 iii CONTENTS EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE, OCTOBER 2021 List of Figures Figure O.1. China is projected to grow faster than was expected, most other countries slower Figure O.2. A downturn in economic activity has interrupted the EAP region’s uneven recovery Figure O.3. Employment declined and fewer people will escape poverty Figure O.4. Inequality is rising across multiple dimensions Figure O.5. COVID-19 continues to hit countries directly and indirectly Figure O.6. The resurgence of COVID-19 is driven by the Delta variant Figure O.7. Mobility has become less sensitive to disease severity, and economic activity less sensitive to reductions in mobility Figure O.8. The relatively low level of vaccination and high levels of susceptibility are necessitating stringent lockdowns and hurting growth in many EAP countries 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 Figure O.9. Delivery drives vaccination, and delays are perceived as major problems