中国交通基础设施投资适度性研究——以公路投资为例毕业(设计)论文.doc

中国交通基础设施投资适度性研究——以公路投资为例摘要：改革开放以来，我国经济经历了 30 多年的快速增长，各产业也有了相应的长足发展交通运输业作为联系各个产业的纽带，对经济发展的作用更是日益突出基于历史原因，我国长期面临着交通基础设施建设滞后于经济发展需求的现状近年来，为改善交通基础设施对经济发展的瓶颈作用，我国提出基础设施适度超前发展策略，不断加大对交通基础设施的投资力度从流量上来看，21 世纪以来，交通、仓储和邮政业投资比例虽然较之前有所下降，但仍然保持在 10%左右的高比例从存量上来看，我国交通基础设施投资颇具规模，以公路为例，2012 年末，我国公路里程达到 423.75 万公里,近五年保持着平均 3.4%的增长率然而，不断增加的交通基础设施投入，不断扩大的交通基础设施规模是否有效的解决了我国经济发展的瓶颈问题？我国目前交通基础设施现实状况如何？交通基础设施投资到底多少才能达到有效促进经济发展的目的？交通基础设施投资是否要无限制的增加？这些问题逐渐被学者讨论关注基于这些问题，本文立足经济学研究角度，以交通基础设施投入与经增长的关系作为切入点，旨在实现两个研究目的：一是论述经济产出与交通基础设施投入之间的倒 U 型关系，以此说明交通基础设施建设投入存在一个适度的规模，投入不足会阻碍经济发展，但同时交通基础设施投资也并不是越多越好。

二是通过适度规模与现有规模的对比，评价中国目前交通基础设施投入是否适度，目前的交通基础设施投入规模是否有效解决了济发展的瓶颈问题本文首先通过对已有文献进行综述研究，提出经济产出与交通基础设施投入之间的关系为倒 U 型变化关系，提出交通基础投资适度性理论观点其次以古诺模型为基础，构建理论模型，定性分析得出交通基础设施投入与经济产出之间的关系，来证实提出的适度性观点然后，在此基础上，以公路为例，运用实证对观点进行检验，证明中国的经济与交通基础设施之间的发展现状是否符合理论设想最后，通过计量得出交通基础设施的适度标准，评价我国各区域和省市的交通基础设施投资是否适度，并分析原因提出建议文章通过研究得出以下结论：一.经济产出与交通基础设施投入之间呈现倒 U型关系，交通基础设施投资具有适度性二.我国交通基础设施投入与经济之间的关系符合适度性理论三.我国总体上交通基础设施投资是不足的，建设水平由东部向西部递减；具体而言，直辖市等部分城市出现交通基础设施投资过度，西部有省份投资基础适度，其余大部分省份投资不足 关键词：交通，基础设施，适度性，投资 ABSTRACT ：Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced 30 years of rapid growth, each industry has also been a corresponding rapid development. Transportation industry as a contact for each link, the role of economic development is becoming increasingly prominent. For historical reasons, China is facing a long-term status of the transportation infrastructure lags behind economic development needs. In recent years, in order to improve transport infrastructure bottleneck effect on economic development, China has proposed infrastructure appropriate development strategies, increasing investment in transport infrastructure. From the traffic point of view, the 21st century, transportation, storage and postal industry, although the proportion of investment decline than before, but still maintain a high proportion of about 10%. From the stock point of view, China's large-scale investment in transportation infrastructure, highway, for example, at the end of 2012, China's highway mileage of 4,237,500 km, nearly five years to maintain an average growth rate of 3.4%However, increasing investment in transport infrastructure, expanding transportation infrastructure are effectively solve the bottleneck of China's economic development? The current realities of how transport infrastructure of? Transport infrastructure investment in the end how much effective to achieve the purpose of promoting economic development? Transportation infrastructure investment if you want to limit the increase? These problems have been gradually scholars discuss concerns. Based on these problems, this paper based on the economics point of view, to the relationship between transport infrastructure investment and economic growth as a starting point, designed to achieve two research purposes: inverted U-shaped economic output and investment in transport infrastructure between First discussion relations, in order to explain the existence of transportation infrastructure investment a modest scale, inadequate investment will hinder economic development, but at the same transport infrastructure investment is also not better. Second, by comparison with the existing scale appropriate scale to evaluate China's current transportation infrastructure investment is moderate, the current scale of investment in transport infrastructure is an effective solution to the bottleneck problem of economic development. Through research the following conclusions: a presentation between economic output and investment in transport infrastructure inverted U-shaped relationship between transportation infrastructure investment with moderation. Investment and economic relations between our two transportation infrastructure. Meet the modest theory. Third, China's overall investment in the transport infrastructure is insufficient, construction level decreasing from east to west; Specifically, municipalities and some other cities in transportation infrastructure investment over the western provinces have a modest investment in infrastructure, lack of investment in most of the remaining provinces. Key word: transportation, infrastructure, moderation, investme目录一、绪论 11.1 研究的背景 11.2 研究的意义 21.2.1 学术意义 31.2.2 实用意义 31.3 研究方法 41.3.1 文献分析法 41.3.2 定性分析 41.3.3 定量分析 41.3.4 对比分析 51.4 研究内容和框架 51.5 创新点与难点 61.5.1 本文的创新之处 61.6 国内外研究综述 71.6.1 国外研究综述 71.6.2 国内研究综述 10二、 相关概念及理论基础 152.1 交通基础设施的概念及特点 152.1.1 交通基础设施的含义 152.2 交通基础设施投资的经济效应 162.2.1 直接效应 172.2.2 间接效应 172.2.3 挤出效应 172.3 投资经济学理论 182.3.2 索罗模型 182.4 基础设施发展模式理论 192.4.1 基础设施超前发展论 192.4.2 基础设施滞后发展论 192。