税收基本理论宏观税负详解.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,参考书：,（,1,）张培森，中国宏观税负研究，中国财政理论前沿，,1999,年,12,月,（,2,）中国的税收收入规模研究，赵志耘、郭庆旺，中国财政理论前沿,2003,年,12,月,第一节 宏观税负一般与中国宏观税负,一、宏观税负一般,1,、关于宏观税负概念,一国一定时期（一般为一年）各项税收收入总量与经济产出总量之间的比值2,、关于宏观税负的衡量计算指标,“小口径”宏观税负税收收入占,GDP,的比重,“中口径”宏观税负财政收入占,GDP,的比重,“大口径”宏观税负政府全部收入占,GDP,的比重,3,、宏观税负与微观税负的关系,微观税负结构变化是宏观税负结构变化的基础和条件,4,、关于宏观税负的世界趋势,一国经济增长率,一国经济总量,5,、关于宏观税负合理量限,（,1,）马斯顿的研究：,20,世纪,70,年代初,-80,年代初,宏观税负每提高,1,，经济增长率就下降,0.36,18-22,（,2,）拉弗曲线,D,E,B,C,O,A,A,税率,图,拉弗曲线,第二节 中国宏观税负变动趋势及其影响因素,一、宏观税负变动趋势,GDP,增长率,工业增加值增长率,各项税收收入总额增长率,各项税收总额占,GDP,比重,工商税收收入增长率,工商税收占,GDP,比重,两税占工业增加值比重,1985,25.01,18.20,115,22.77,35.58,13.36,1986,13.81,9.60,2.45,20.49,8.47,12.73,1987,17.25,13.20,2.37,17.89,6.53,11.57,1988,24.79,15.30,11.69,16.09,14.95,10.66,1989,13.27,5.10,14.09,16.13,18.01,11.10,1990,9.69,3.40,3.46,15.21,4.98,10.63,1991,16.55,14.40,5.96,13.83,5.77,9.64,1992,23.22,21.20,10.26,12.38,12.26,8.79,1993,30.02,20.10,29.07,12.29,40.59,9.50,1994,35.01,18.90,20.48,10.96,21.97,8.58,14.08,1995,25.06,14.00,17.77,10.33,17.34,8.05,12.36,1996,16.09,12.50,14.44,10.18,15.02,7.98,11.45,1997,10.15,11.10,19.16,11.01,25.47,9.09,13.20,年份,税收收入占,GDP,比重（,%,）,1998,11.82%,1999,13.02%,2000,14.07%,2001,16.22%,数据来源：中国统计局网站,http:/,1,、宏观税负变动反映税收收入增长与经济增长具有同周期性,（,1,）,1979-1984,年,（,2,）,1985-1993,年：,1988,、,1989,年持续经济过热，通货膨胀,1990,、,1991,年，经济硬着陆,1993,年：特殊,（,3,）,1994,年税改：,2,、宏观税负呈逐年下降趋势,1997,年开始，稳步上升,二、宏观税负水平的若干影响因素,1,、,经济体制,因素,2,、经济因素,（,1,）,经济发展水平,：纵向、横向比较,（,2,）经济发展模式,（,3,）经济效益,（,4,）经济结构,（,5,）国民收入分配结构变化,表,中央政府经常收入占国民生产总值的比重,按人均收入水平划分的国家类别,中央政府经常收入占国民生产总值的比重（,%,）,人均国民生产总值（美元）,1972,年,1986,年,低收入国家,/,15.4,200,中下等收入国家（地区）,16.7,21.4,750,中上等收入国家（地区）,20.3,25.0,1 890,工业国,21.6,24.1,12 960,资料来源：,世界发展报告,（,1988,），,268,页，表,24,。

国家,税收比率,低收入国家,蒙古,1999,21.74,印度,1998,13.09,巴基斯坦,2000,12.16,下中等收入国家,俄罗斯,2000,32.47,阿尔及利亚,1996,30.61,保加利亚,1999,30.50,土耳其,2000,埃及,1997,21.60,16.57,伊朗,1999,16.08,菲律宾,1992,15.99,中国,1999,15.01,泰国,1999,14.98,上中等收入国家,匈牙利,1999,37.61,波兰,2000,36.68,巴西,1998,29.70,国家,税收比率,南非,2000,27.58,韩国,1997,17.30,墨西哥,1998,15.15,高收入国家,法国,1997,43.57,德国,1998,37.25,英国,1998,36.62,加拿大,2000,36.60,美国,1999,28.08,澳大利亚,1999,29.45,3,、财政体制因素,4,、税收自身因素,（,1,）税制因素,（,2,）税收优惠,（,3,）税收征管,5,、统计数字真实程度,国有及国有控股企业产值比重及其税收收入比重的变化,年度,工业总产值,国有及国有控股企业产值所占比重,税收收入,来自国有及国有控股企业的税收收入所占比重,1978,77.63,86.85,1980,75.98,81.97,1985,64.86,70.45,1986,62.27,64.12,1988,56.80,67.83,1990,54.61,65.03,1992,51.52,66.13,1995,33.97,57.50,1996,36.32,54.11,1997,31.63,47.72,1998,28.24,38.76,1999,28.21,34.92,2000,34.16,年度,税收比率（）,人均收入水平（元）,进出口总额比率（）,农业产值比率（）,1986,20.49,956,25.29,39.33,1988,16.01,1355,25.60,39.29,1990,15.21,1634,29.98,41.31,1992,12.38,2287,34.24,34.10,1994,10.96,3923,43.59,33.68,1995,10.33,4854,40.19,34.78,1996,10.18,5576,35.56,32.93,1997,11.06,6054,36.22,31.95,1998,11.82,6307,34.28,31.33,1999,13.02,6547,36.43,29.88,2000,14.07,7078,43.93,27.87,三、宏观税负结构,表,1,分产业税收负担率（单位：）,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,第一产业,2.05,1.83,2.44,2.32,2.66,第二产业,13,11.67,11.02,第三产业,11.44,11.6,11.9,表,2,分产业国内生产总值构成（单位：）,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,第一产业,21.77,19.87,20.22,20.51,20.24,第二产业,43.92,47.45,47.85,48.80,49.00,第三产业,34.31,32.69,31.93,30.69,30.76,表,3,分产业税收收入构成（单位：）,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,第一产业,4.78,4.88,5.6,第二产业,60,61.75,56.23,第三产业,35.22,33.37,38.17,表,4 1994-1996,年部分行业两税税负对比（单位：）,烟草,电力,食品,商业,1994,47.03,7.66,1.69,1.80,1995,41.97,7.90,1.43,1.50,1996,39.74,8.26,1.47,1.68,表,5 1994-1996,年主要行业所得税负对比（单位：）,烟草,冶金,煤炭,机电,电力,食品,建材,石化,商业,纺织,1994,4.09,18.8,18.2,10.3,15.4,8.7,5.89,30.0,5.3,16.6,1995,21.7,29.5,29.6,14.6,22.1,19.1,14.7,26.5,7.53,-195,1996,40.8,11.2,14.8,15.1,25.1,198.7,26.0,8.17,8.06,表,6 1994-1996,年分所有制性质企业两税收入占税收收入总量比重（单位：）,国有经济所占比重,集体经济所占比重,私营个体经济所占比重,联营经济所占比重,股份制经济所占比重,涉外经济所占比重,其他经济所占比重,1994,65.38,16.7,6.01,0.47,2.07,7.98,1.44,1995,62.34,16.75,6.06,0.60,2.65,10.50,1.1,1996,53.38,18.85,7.41,0.95,4.07,13.95,1.3,平均值,60.37,17.43,6.49,0.67,2.93,10.81,1.28,表,7 1994,1996,年分地区税收负担率（单位：）,1993,1994,1995,1996,平均值,东部,4,省,10.36,9.86,6.60,7.41,8.56,东南部,3,省,9.62,9.39,5.17,9.41,8.40,东北部,3,省,12.00,11.19,7.30,11.01,10.38,中部,6,省,9.22,8.07,4.92,6.73,7.24,西部,7,省,12.51,12.16,8.32,10.74,10.93,表,8 1985-1997,年中国税收收入对,GDP,的弹性,年,各项税收收入弹性,工商税收收入弹性,年,各项税收收入弹性,工商税收收入弹性,1985,4.60,1.42,1992,0.44,0.53,1986,0.18,0.61,1993,0.97,1.35,1987,0.14,0.38,1994,0.58,0.63,1988,0.47,0.60,1995,0.71,0.69,1989,1.06,1.36,1996,0.90,0.93,1990,0.36,0.51,1997,1.89,2.51,1991,0.36,0.35,。