2008年金融危机对巴西宏观经济的冲击与影响中英文资料.doc

一、2008年金融危机对巴西宏观经济的冲击与影响（1） 经济陷入衰退 2008年爆发的金融危机遏制了巴西经济增长势头，尤其是贸易价格与出口量的双双下降，导致巴西经济在2009年出现收缩2008年前三个季度巴西的GDP增速均超过6%，四季度增速则骤降至1.3%2009年全年经济萎缩0.2%，为1992年以来首次下降2） 制造业生产大幅下滑，失业率上升 数据显示，巴西2009年第一季度工业总产量指数较2008年同期下降了14.7%由于巴西的经济收缩在工业生产领域最为显著，因此制造业、矿产采掘业、冶金等行业减产裁员较多，致使失业率快速上升3） 资本市场剧烈震荡，居民储蓄大幅度下降，外汇行情急剧变化 2008年9月15日，圣保罗股市创下自2001年“9·11”恐怖袭击事件以来的最大单日跌幅，博维斯帕指数当天重挫7.59%圣保罗股市的动荡使外资开始逐渐撤离巴西受股市动荡的影响，巴西外汇市场行情也急剧变化，导致美元对巴西货币雷亚尔的比价急剧下跌，巴西的雷亚尔兑美元汇率从2008年8月份到年底贬值近50%4） 出口同比下降，国际储备受到影响 2008年巴西出口出现10年来首次下滑和8年来首次逆差。

由于外部需求萎缩和大宗商品价格回落，巴西对外贸易在2009年第一季度前两个月延续了2008年第四季度以来的下滑趋势二、巴西政府应对金融危机措施（一）实施减税计划，充分发挥税收政策的调控作用 巴西政府于当年12月正式出台一项总额达100亿雷亚尔（约合42亿美元）的减税计划这一减税计划的具体措施包括重新制定个人所得税、降低金融领域流通税和制造业领域工业(2) 追加财政预算，加快基础设施项目建设产品税等 在此次金融危机中，巴西寻求以扩大内需为目标的反周期财政相机抉择政策，决定在2008年－2010年增加2007年制订的《加速发展计划》预算支出规模，加快实施《计划》中的基础设施建设项目（三）调整信贷政策，提供农牧业专项信贷支持 巴西出先后台了一系列信贷调控政策，包括为中小企业提供优惠贷款、为农业提供专项信贷支持、增加农业专项贷款额度等，以缩减国际信贷紧张对巴西企业的影响（4） 调低存款准备金率和基准利率，帮助企业渡过难关为降低借贷市场的整体成本，刺激经济增长，巴西央行于2008年9月调低了银行存款准备金率以向经济注入1000亿雷亚尔（约合549.5亿美元）的流动性5） 干预汇率市场，维护币值稳定 2008年9月至2009年1月巴西的实际有效汇率贬值18.4%。

美元升值将导致巴西国内通货膨胀率上升，同时让企业外债负担加重为此，巴西中央银行通过卖掉美元外汇储备、提供美元贷款和为出口企业提供贷款等途径，有效控制了美元对巴西雷亚尔过快升值The Macroeconomic Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on Brazil and the Responds of Its Government 1. IntroductionThe serious financial crisis during 2007-2008, which is called the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, the Credit Crisis,or the Financial Tsunami of Wall Street, first started in the United States in 2007 and then impacted the global economy just like a disease. It was triggered by a large decline in home prices, leading to mortgage defaults and foreclosures and the devaluation of housing-related securities. Declines in residential investment preceded the recession and were followed by reductions in household spending and then business investment. The expansion of household debt was financed with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations(CDO), which initially offered attractive rates of return with a combination of the much lower credit quality ultimately caused massive defaults. The crisis became totally visible as several major financial institutions collapsed in September 2008, with significant disruption in the flow of credit to businesses and consumers and the onset of a severe global recession.This paper is a discussion over the Brazilian macroeconomic conditions in 2008 under circumstances of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis and a global recession that followed after.2. The Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on Brazilian Macroeconomic ConditionsAs the global economy has been more and more becoming as a whole, the Economic Globalization connects every nation ,every society and every country more closely. That’s to say, whenever a worldwide financial crisis takes place, every country that participated in the global economy would just get right involved. And so does Brazil. The Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2008 caused great bad influence on Brazil, especially on its macro-economy.(1) Severe Economy RecessionThe Subprime Mortgage Crisis put a sudden stop to the rapidly growing economy of Brazil. Both its trading price and the export volumes declined obviously, which caused the severe economy recession during the following year of 2009. The economy growth rate of Brazil in its three quarters of a year was even above 6%, while it fell deep down to the number of 1.3%. The economy scale even decreased as low as 0.2% though, it was its first decrease ever since 1992.(2) Great Recession in Manufacturing Industries, Uprising Unemployment RateAccording to reliable data, the Total Industrial Output Index of Brazil in the first quarter of 2009 decreased as much as 14.7% compared to the same quarter the year before. The economic recession was most significant in the manufacturing industries, thus many manufacturing workers, miners, ect got out of job, which led to a rapid uprising unemployment rate.(3) Serious Money Market Volatility, Distinct National Saving Rate Decline, Sharp Exchange Market changes In September 15th of 2008, the St Paul stock market reached the most remarkable daily decline since the "9 - 11" Terrorist Attack of 2001, and meanwhile its Bo Vespa index decreased sharply by the number of 7.59%. The volatility of Brazilian Money Market caused a swift outflow of foreign assets and the residents saving rate declined as well as people lose faith in domestic credit and withdrew cash from banks. On account of the fluctuating stock market, sharp changes took place in the exchange market,which resulted in severe depreciation of Brazilian real( the currency of Brazil ) against US dollar . The exchange rate of Brazilian real against US dollar depreciated about 50% during the last 5 months of 2008. (4) Deadly Strikes on Exports, Sharp Decrease of International Reserve In 2008, the export reduced the first time for 10 years and the first trade deficit ap。