面向优质建设与房地产开发的专业化进程-建设管理与房地产热点问题研讨会.pdf

A transaction based approach for assessing the risk and return of property investment in Hong Kong 以房地产成交数据评估香港房地产投资风险和回报以房地产成交数据评估香港房地产投资风险和回报鄒廣榮教授 香港大學 房地產及建設系講座教授 及 建築學院院長鄒廣榮教授 香港大學 房地產及建設系講座教授 及 建築學院院長Professionalism towards Quality Construction and Property Development 面向优质建设与房地产开发的专业化进程面向优质建设与房地产开发的专业化进程 - 建设管理与房地产热点问题研讨会建设管理与房地产热点问题研讨会资助单位：香港特别行政区工商及科技局 主办单位：香港测量师学会、同济大学和香港大学 协办单位： *资助单位：香港特别行政区工商及科技局 主办单位：香港测量师学会、同济大学和香港大学 协办单位： ** 香港大学、清华大学、天津大学、中国人民大学及同济大学合作创立香港大学、清华大学、天津大学、中国人民大学及同济大学合作创立Residential sub-sector 住宅住宅050100150200250300350400450198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Index (1989=100)Price 售價Rent 租金Retail sub-sector 商舖商舖050100150200250300350400450198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Index (1989=100)Price 售價Rent 租金Office sub-sector 商廈商廈050100150200250300350400450198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Index (1989=100)Price 售價Rent 租金Industrial sub-sector 工業樓宇工業樓宇050100150200250300350400450198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Index (1989=100)Price 售價Rent 租金香港各類物業香港各類物業9797前後累積升前後累積升/ /跌幅跌幅-6%-18%-8%-14%Average total annual returnh 平均年回報平均年回報73%-59%-59%-65%1997Q3-2003Q215%17%21%21%Average total annual return 平均年回報平均年回報253%512%907%862%1983Q3-1997Q2Industrial 工業大廈工業大廈Office 商廈商廈Retail 商舖商舖Residential 住宅住宅香港各類物業香港各類物業9797前後累積升前後累積升/ /跌幅跌幅 ( (扣除通賬後計扣除通賬後計) )-2%-14%-5%-10%Average total annual returnh 平均年回報平均年回報-49%-66%-49%-56%1997Q3-2003Q28%10%13%13%Average total annual return 平均年回報平均年回報33%131%280%263%1983Q3-1997Q2Industrial 工業大廈工業大廈Office 商廈商廈Retail 商舖商舖Residential 住宅住宅香港各類物業回報及風險香港各類物業回報及風險 (1980:Q1(1980:Q1- -2003:Q2)2003:Q2)19.0%13.5%9.3%11.2%Risk 風險風險 (標準差標準差)7.0%11.1%9.2%10.5%Average total Return 平均投資總回報平均投資總回報19.5%13.8%10.0%10.9%Risk 風險風險 (標準差標準差)1.8%5.6%1.7%5.4%Average return 平均投資回報平均投資回報 (物業升值、不計租 金收入物業升值、不計租 金收入)Industrial 工業大廈工業大廈Office 商廈商廈Retail 商舖商舖Residential 住宅住宅香港各類物業實則回報及風險香港各類物業實則回報及風險 ( (扣除通賬後計扣除通賬後計) ) (1980:Q1(1980:Q1- -2003:Q2)2003:Q2)20.5%15.0%10.8%12.7%Risk 風險風險 (標準差標準差)2.4%6.5%4.6%5.9%Average total Return 平均投資總回報平均投資總回報21.0%15.3%11.5%12.4%Risk 風險風險 (標準差標準差)-2.8%1.0%-3.0%0.8%Average return 平均投資回報平均投資回報 (物業升值、不計租 金收入物業升值、不計租 金收入)Industrial 工業大廈工業大廈Office 商廈商廈Retail 商舖商舖Residential 住宅住宅R Re eal Estate Price as an economic indicatoral Estate Price as an economic indicator 房地產價格為經濟領先指標房地產價格為經濟領先指標? ? Leads economic growth (GDP)Leads economic growth (GDP) ? ? 領先經濟增長領先經濟增長 By approximately 2 By approximately 2 qtrsqtrs in Hong Kongin Hong Kong 約領先六個月約領先六個月? ? Leads real estate investmentLeads real estate investment 領先領先房地產房地產投資投資Leading IndicatorsLeading Indicators ( (房地產價格領先指標房地產價格領先指標) )? ? Property share prices Property share prices ( (地產股票價格地產股票價格) )? ? Transaction Volume Transaction Volume ( (房地產成交量房地產成交量) )? ? PrePre- -sales prices sales prices ( (樓花預售價格樓花預售價格) )Real and nominal discount ratesReal and nominal discount rates 實則與名義折現率值模型實則與名義折現率值模型 ? ? Nominal discount formulaNominal discount formulawhere g is expected future growth rate in rent (where g is expected future growth rate in rent (預期租金增長率預期租金增長率) ) A is current rental income (A is current rental income (現年度淨租金收入現年度淨租金收入) )R RN Nis nominal discount rate (is nominal discount rate (名義折現率名義折現率) ) ? ? Real discount formulaReal discount formulaR is rental yield (R is rental yield (租金回報率租金回報率) )V =A(1+ g) (1+ RtNtt=1n)∑VA (1)tt 1n =+=∑RImplied expected long term rental growthImplied expected long term rental growth ( (隱含預期租金增長隱含預期租金增長) )? ? Comparing the two formula (Comparing the two formula (比較以上模型得出比較以上模型得出) )R RN N = R + g + = R + g + RgRg? ? R RN NThe nominal discount rate has two components (The nominal discount rate has two components (亦可亦可 分為兩部份分為兩部份) )R RN N = R= RF F + R+ RP PR RF F 為無風險折現率為無風險折現率R RP P 為風險溢價為風險溢價? ? 因此因此? ?R = RR = RF F + R+ RP P – – g g – – RgRg ? ? 或或 g = Rg = RF F + R+ RP P – – R RLeading IndicatorsLeading Indicators ( (房地產價格領先指標房地產價格領先指標) )? ? Difference between implied expected longDifference between implied expected long- - term rental growth and expected longterm rental growth and expected long- -term term inflationinflation ? ? ( (隱含預期租金增長隱含預期租金增長與與長長期期通賬通賬預預期期差異差異) ) LI = g LI = g - - E E(Inf(Inf) ) where Ewhere E(inf(inf) is expected long) is expected long- -term inflationterm inflation E E(inf(inf) ) 為為長長期期通賬通賬預預期期Long term rental growth and InflationLong term rental growth and Inflation 租金增長率應與通賬率租金增長率應與通賬率? ? In the long run rental growth should be In the long run rental growth should be similar to inflationsimilar to inflation 長遠而言租金增長率應與通賬率相約長遠而言租金增長率應與通賬率相約? ? If at time t, If at time t, g gt t> E> E(inf(inft t), i.e. (LI >0 )then real ), i.e. (LI >0 )then real estate price is likely to be over valued and estate price is likely to be over valued and will be corrected in the FUTUREwill be corrected in the FUTURE LI>0 L。