麦肯锡—伊拉克战后重建机会研究报告.ppt

OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ OPPORTUNITYDoing Business in Iraq Amman, 5th June 2003Achmed Al-Shahrabani McKinsey Country Watch; EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQ’S REAL GDP* - 1980 TO 2002Over the past decade, Iraq’s real GDP fell by 50%…USD billionESTIMATE-50%-50%GDP estimates GDP estimates for 2002 subject for 2002 subject to wide variation to wide variation (USD 24-60 (USD 24-60 billion)billion)*Purchasing power parity method, current prices Source:CIA World Factbook; Country Watch20023.8-4.51.0-1.41980ESTIMATE DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQ’S REAL GDP* PER CAPITA - 1980 TO 2002… and purchasing power parity on individual level even furtherUSD thousands GDP/capita GDP/capita estimates estimates subject to wide subject to wide variation (USD variation (USD 1.000-2.500)1.000-2.500)-70%-70%Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003IraqIraqSaudiSaudi ArabiaArabiaCOMPARISON OF GDP DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970 TO 2000Iraq has suffered a significant reduction in GDP over last 25 yearsin billion USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003IraqIraqSaudiSaudi ArabiaArabiaCOMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970 TO 2000In the late 70ties Iraq’s GDP per capita was at par with Saudi Arabiain ‘000 USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000* Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 million Source: EIU country profile IraqJordanIranIraqSaudi ArabiaSyria*ESTIMATE COMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA - 2002Iraq’s current GDP per capita is comparable to Syria and IranUSD thousandsSource:Economist intelligence unit 2002; OANDA.COMIraqi inflation rates %19961997199819992000Exchange rates Iraqi Dinar per USD (black market rate) Huge budget deficits lead to “printing of money”BUT: Official exchange rate has been ID 0,31 to the USD since 19832001200219961997 19981999200020012002Current exchange Current exchange rate ID 900- 1.000 = rate ID 900- 1.000 = 1 USD1 USDESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES – 1996 TO 2002Iraq has shown high inflation coupled with strong depreciation of the currencySource:EIU country dataExternal debt $bnIraqSyria JordanIran230-485230-48510109191113113% of GPD60-130Main causes of uncertainty are •Accrued interest •“Assistance” funds in Iran- Iraq war •Claims following Gulf war 1991ESTIMATE COMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES - 2001Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt*Estimates range from $103.4 –$129.4bnSource:Reuters; Institute for international Economics 25 18 13 10Saudi Arabia Gulf States excl. Kuwait Kuwait Paris Club excl Russia, France 8Russia 8France 2USA 3Commercial Bank Creditors 2Bulgaria2Poland, Czech, Romania1Multilateral Institutions1Yugoslavia2Trade Claims 24Others Total external debt119* 14-25Kuwait reparation payments 133 – 144Total claims• Iraq regarded the loans from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait as grant payments for its 1980 war against Iran CommentsCreditorAmount – principal and overdue interestESTIMATEBREAKDOWN OF IRAQI LIABILITIES – 2001Iraq’s liabilities are mainly ‘loans’ from the Gulf states granted to Iraq in the 80ties during the war with Iran(USD bn)•The IMF and World Bank are owed less than $200mSource:EIU Country profile Iraq 2002FranceAustraliaChinaJordanTop 5 import sourcesTop 5 export destinationsU.S.FranceJordanItalySpainItalyMainly oil Mainly oil exports within exports within the food for oil the food for oil programprogramMAJOR IRAQI TRADING PARTNERS - 2001France is most important supplier, the US most important customer of Iraqi productsUSD millionAGENDA•Overview Iraq•Economic scenarios for Iraq•Recent developments Source:McKinsey“Good standard”1 1•Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows modestly at a CAGR of 3-5% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 9-11%) “Best in Class”2 2•Assumes the non-oil part of the the Iraqi economy grows strongly at a CAGR of 7-9% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 11-13%) “Distinctive”3 3•Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows aggressively at a CAGR 12-15% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 13-15%) ESTIMATE FOR DISCUSSION THREE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSIraq’s In the ‘World Class’ scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2013Non-oil Sectors •Oil production level 2008•Oil production level 2013•4-5 million barrels per day•6-7 million barrels per dayOil Sector + +*) Population in 2003= 24 million, 2008=29 million, 2013=33 million Source:McKinseyGDP development 2003- 2013 (in bn USD)GDP per capita* 2003-2013 (in ‘000 USD)ESTIMATE FOR DISCUSSION THREE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSIn the ‘distinctive’ scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 20131 1“Good Standard”1.8-2.22.2-2.62003201320081.253-6373-862003201320083014%6%11%3%2 2“Best in class”2.0-2.32.5-2.92003201320081.257-6783-982003201320083016%8%12%5%3 3“Distinctive”2.2-2.63.1-3.82003201320081.263-75102-12620032013200。