我国会计制度变迁对盈余稳健性影响的研究.pdf

河北大学硕士学位论文我国会计制度变迁对盈余稳健性影响的研究姓名：冯娜申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计学指导教师：孟永峰20100501摘 要 I摘 要 盈余稳健性一直是财务会计中一项重要的会计信息质量特征， 在会计制度制定方面具有较强的指导意义但是目前国内外有关会计盈余稳健性的实证研究还比较少，在国外关于会计盈余稳健性的实证研究只有十多年的历史，而在我国则开始的更晚本文以会计盈余的稳健性作为切入点， 试图揭示出会计盈余稳健性与其背后的会计制度之间的关系在我国近十多年来的会计制度改革中，会计盈余的地位越来越重要，已经成为投资者进行决策所参考的重要指标本文旨在通过实证研究，分析我国会计制度变迁对盈余稳健性产生的影响，为以后我国会计制度的变迁积累一些经验 基于这一思路， 本文选取了 1995-2009年我国沪深两市A股上市公司作为研究样本，运用了 Basu(1997)模型，系统地研究了两方面的问题： 1、我国会计制度中是否存在盈余稳健性？ 2、我国会计制度变迁过程中会计盈余稳健性如何变化？ 本文的研究结果表明， （1） 会计盈余的稳健性在 1995 至 2009 年期间是存在的； （2）各个期间的会计盈余稳健性并不相同。

为此，本文把这段会计期间分为四个会计阶段：1995 年至 1997 年我国初步提出实行稳健性原则，会计盈余表现的稳健性很弱；而 1998年至 2000 年我国上市公司的会计盈余稳健性有所提高，但是效果不是很大；2001 年至2006 年我国上市公司会计盈余的稳健性迅速提高， 稳健性原则成为会计原则中的重要原则之一； 2007 年至今， 新的会计准则并没有继续提高我国上市公司的会计盈余的稳健性，反而比上一个期间有所降低 （3）盈余稳健性虽然可以帮助投资者尽量减少风险，但是却有可能低估企业的价值甚至从而失去许多好的投资机会 本文的研究意义在于： （1）本文试图分析会计制度变迁对盈余稳健性是否有影响并分阶段分析其盈余稳健性的变化，由于我国处于社会主义初级阶段这个特殊国情，可以为其他的一些社会主义国家的会计制度的制定提供一些经验 （2）不同学者对会计制度和盈余稳健性的研究存在着不同的观点，我们不能随意说哪个正确或是哪个不正确，但是通过本文的研究我们可以得出自己的观点，同时为自己认同的观点提供一些证据支持 （3）本文的研究对我国证券市场也具有重要的意义，在证券市场中我们要进行财务报表分析和会计盈余预测， 本文所研究的会计盈余对以后证券市场的股票价格有一定的摘 要 II预测能力。

虽然我国会计制度自身发展还不成熟，有时会不可避免的出现一些盈余操控行为，但这并不影响它在我国证券市场的财务分析和盈余预测中的作用 关键词 盈余稳健性 会计制度变迁 会计准则制定 会计信息Abstract IIIAbstract Earnings conservatism has always been an important quality characteristic of accounting information, and played an important role in the formulation of the systems of accounting. However, the number of empirical research on accounting earnings conservatism is still relatively small. The empirical research on accounting earnings conservatism abroad has lasted only 10 years, and in our country the research starts much later. With accounting earnings conservatism as an entry point, this paper tries to reveal the relationship between earnings conservatism and accounting system. In the past ten years of accounting institutional reform, accounting earnings become more and more important, and has become an important reference in the process of investors’ decision-making. This paper aims at making an analysis of the influence of accounting institutional changes on the accounting earnings conservatism through empirical research, hoping to accumulate some experiences for accounting institutional changes in our country. Based on this thought, this paper selects A-share listed companies of Shenzhen and Shanghai from 1995 to 2009 as study models and adopts Basu (1997) model to study the following two problems: 1 Whether there is earnings conservatism in our accounting system? 2 How does the accounting earnings conservatism change in the process of accounting institutional changes? The results show that (1) the conservatism of accounting earnings exists from 1995 to 2009; (2) the conservatism of accounting earnings in different stages is not the same. Thus this paper divides the accounting period into four stages: from 1995 to 1997 China initially adopts the principle of conservatism, but the conservatism of the accounting earnings is weak; from 1998 to 2000 the listed companies in China has increased the conservatism of accounting earnings, but the effect is not obvious; from 2001 to 2006 the conservatism of accounting earnings of listed companies in China increases rapidly, and the principle of conservatism becomes one of the important accounting principles; from 2007 to now, the new Abstract IVaccounting standards don’t improve the conservatism of accounting earnings, but decreased than the last period; (3) Although earnings conservatism can help investors to minimize the risk, it may underestimate the value of the companies and even lose many good investment opportunities. The significances of this paper are as the following: (1) this paper tries to analyze the influence of accounting institutional changes on the earnings conservatism and show the changes of earning conservatism in different stages. Owing to the special situation of our country, this study can provide some experiences of accounting institution for other socialist countries. (2) People have different opinions on the conservatism of accounting earnings. We can not say which one is right or which one is wrong, but we can get our own ideas through this research and provide some evidences to support my view. (3) This paper also has a great significance for securities market in our country. We make an analysis of financial statements and make a prediction of accounting earnings. The accounting earnings studied in this paper have certain predictive ability for stock prices. Though the accounting institution of our country is not mature enough, sometimes there will be actions of earnings manipulation, but it doesn’t affect the important role of financial analysis and earnings forecast in our securities market. Keywords Earnings Conservatism Accounting Institutional Changes Accounting Standards Setting Accounting Information第 1 章 引 言 1第 1 章 引 言 1.1 问题的提出 改革开放以来，我国经济不断向前发展，企业会计制度也随之发生了翻天覆地的变化。

特别是从 1992 年我国颁布的《企业会计准则》到 2006 年我国实施新的《企业会计准则》 ，我国企业会计制度正在逐步完善，逐步向国际会计准则趋同而盈余稳健性是会计信息质量特征的重要指。