中国水稻产业布局变迁的经济和生态分析.pdf

浙江大学硕士学位论文 致 谢 I 致致 谢谢 两年半的研究生生涯即将过去，而入学报到的情景还历历在目，恍如昨日 从刚跨进校门的依然涉世未深的本科毕业生， 到如今完成硕士毕业论文的写作即 将毕业的硕士研究生，在浙江大学两年半的学习和生活中我收获良多，各方面都 取得了一些进步 取得这些成绩，首先要感谢我的导师潘伟光老师在攻读硕士研究生的两年 半时间里，潘老师在学习、生活和工作等各方面都无微不至地关心并给予了很大 的帮助潘老师的关心和帮助不仅带给我学习和工作上的进步，他乐观积极的生 活态度、严肃认真的学术精神以及对学生的热情照顾，都深深地影响了我，在今 后的工作生活中我都将发挥这样的精神 另外，要感谢余安、吕秀滢、汪渊、陶然、陈文佳、钟王黎和其他 09 农经 班的同学以及同门的周芬、 秦真森、 李涛， 你们让我的研究生生活变得格外美好 感谢你们在开心的时刻一起分享，难过的时候给我安慰，困难的时候提供帮助， 我们共同度过的这些时光，将会一直珍藏在我的记忆中 最后，特别感谢我的父母一直以来对我的支持除了为我的学习和生活提供 物质上的保障，还在精神上一直鼓励和支持我能取得今天的这些成绩，离不开 爸爸妈妈对我几十年如一日的无私付出。

感谢所有关心和帮助过我的人，没有你们，就没有今天的我 浙江大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 III 摘摘 要要 水稻是我国最重要的粮食作物之一， 水稻产业的发展状况直接影响大米的市 场供给，关系着全国粮食市场的稳定程度以及国家的粮食安全水平而要长期维 持稳定良好的水稻生产发展趋势，就必须从经济和生态两个角度综合考虑，实现 水稻产业的可持续发展 本文首先从经济的角度考虑， 从宏观的地区经济发展水平和微观的水稻相对 经济效益两个层次讨论了影响水稻种植的主要因素改革开放以来，我国水稻播 种面积略有减少，但水稻产量明显提高，同时，水稻生产的重心逐渐由南方向北 方、由东部向西部转移定性和定量分析均证明，除东北地区外，影响水稻生产 发展的经济因素中，人均 GDP 和替代作物与水稻相对净收益的比率对各地水稻 播种面积产生消极的影响 政府扶持粮食生产发展的补贴政策对水稻播种面积的 影响不明显，但对其发生了一定的积极作用 其次，从生态的角度考虑，采用虚拟水和碳足迹两个概念，比较全面地核算 水稻种植造成的生态影响研究发现，南部地区和西南地区在水稻生产中具有明 显的水资源环境优势，而东北地区和中部地区水稻生产中的水资源矛盾比较突 出。

我国水稻生产中发生在原料阶段和种植阶段的碳足迹占水稻碳足迹的 90%-97%，主要是这两个阶段中化石燃料燃烧造成的间接碳排放各地区比较发 现，我国水稻主产区中碳足迹较高的为东部地区和南部地区，且有进一步增长的 趋势 水稻生产布局由南方向北方、 由东部向西部转移的趋势与我国水资源的空间 分布规律恰好相反，将造成全国范围内的水资源的利用效率降低，不利于农业水 资源的可持续开发和利用 但水稻生产布局的转移趋势与水稻碳足迹大小的分布 比较一致，将在一定程度上推动水稻产业碳减排但决定水稻碳足迹大小的是各 地的水稻生产经营方式，而不是自然资源禀赋，因此，水稻生产布局的转移并不 能从根本上减少水稻温室气体排放 本文的政策建议主要有以下几点：第一，继续适当增加水稻生产补贴，提高 稻农收入；第二，从全国水资源总体利用效果考虑，合理布局水稻生产布局，并 浙江大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 IV 提高农业用水效率；第三，转变农业生产经营方式，解决我国水稻生产中温室气 体排放的问题；第四，根据各地具体情况，制定针对性的水稻产业发展规划 关键词关键词：水稻，生产布局，相对经济收益，：水稻，生产布局，相对经济收益，生态影响，生态影响，虚拟水，碳足迹虚拟水，碳足迹 浙江大学硕士学位论文 Abstract V Abstract Rice is one of the most important food crops in China. The development of rice industry affects the supply of rice directly, and relates to the stability of national grain market and the country’s food security condition. In order to maintaining a long-term stability of rice production, it must be reviewed from the economic perspective and the ecological perspective, to achieve sustainable development. First, at the economic perspective, the discussion of the main factors of rice cultivation is launched from the macro level of economic development and the micro level of relative economic benefits of rice. Since reform and opening up, China's rice acreage decreased slightly, while rice production increased significantly. The rice production center is transferring from the South to the North, from the East to the West, gradually. Qualitative and quantitative analysis prove, except the Northeast region, among the economic factors, the per capita GDP and the ratio of the relative net income between alternative crops and rice impact rice acreage negatively. The effects of government’s subsidies policies which supporting the development of grain production is not obvious, but it did have some positive effect on rice acreage. Second, at the ecological perspective, using two concepts – virtual water and carbon footprint, accounting the ecological impact of rice cultivation through a more comprehensive ways. The study found that, in rice production, the southern and southwest regions showed significant environmental advantages of water, while the northeast and central regions showed prominent water conflict. Rice carbon footprint emerges in raw material stages and growing stages is accounted for 90% -97%, mainly indirectly caused by fossil fuel combustion emissions happened in these phases. On the regional comparison, the eastern and southern regions have the highest carbon footprint among China's main rice producing areas, and it has a further growth trend. The center of rice production is transferring from the South to North, from East 浙江大学硕士学位论文 Abstract VI to West and the production structure is just opposite to the spatial distribution of water resources in China, it will pull down the country's water use efficiency, and it is not conducive to the sustainable use of agricultural water resources. However, the transfer trends of rice production layout is relatively consistent with the distribution of the size of rice carbon footprint, to a certain extent, the transformation can promote the reduction of rice industry carbon emissions. But the factor which decides the size of rice carbon footprint is the operation mode of rice production, rather than natural resource endowment, therefore, the transformation of rice production layout does not fundamentally reduce greenhouse gas emissions of rice. Policy recommendations of this paper are following: First, continue to increase rice production subsidies, raising farmers income; second, take the national effect of water use, distribute the rice production layout rationally, and improve agricultural water use efficiency; third, change the operation mode of agricultural production, to solve the problem of greenhouse gas emissions in rice production; fourth, develop the targeted rice industry development plan according to different regional circumstances. Key Word：： rice, the production layout, re。