1、 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 24. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Global Research 7 May 2018 Master L
2、imited Partnerships Basin 101 Series Northeast NatGas Infrastructure 101 Series Northeast Natural Gas Infrastructure With interest on the growing production trends in the Northeast, we continue our 101 Series with a deep dive into the Northeast's Natural Gas infrastructure. Northeast Natural Gas Basin Model Update Over the past few years, Northeast natgas takeaway capacity has been a bottleneck to NE natgas prod. In 18, we expect 7.8Bcf/d of takeaway capacity to
3、 come online. Based on our production estimates, we expect Northeast natural gas takeaway capacity will be below 85% through 2020. Hence, we do not see the need for additional takeaway capacity, despite the recent Constitution ruling. Interestingly, RRC recently objected the proposed TRP's Buckeye XPress project as it noted part of Leach XPress has the identical route which makes LXP less valuable and that BXP is not needed. U.S. NatGas S/D Bull/Bear Debate &nbs
4、p;With the continued debate of the growing associate gas from the Permian impacting total U.S. natgas supply-demand market, we highlight few interesting tidbits. It is important to differentiate between dry/residue gas production and wet gas production. We estimate 75% of associated gas from the Permian is dry natgas; hence, fears may be overstated. The EIA is looking for dry gas production to increase by 9 Bcf/d by 2019; however, sees 8Bcf/d of increased usage sugg
5、esting an incremental 1Bcf/d vs. higher prod ests: 1) EIA expects 5Bcf/d demand growth primarily from electric power sector consumption; and 2) LNG exports growth of 2.9Bcf/d. Overall, EIA expects U.S. will be short natural gas in 2019, which is in contrast with bears view. That said, Bentek expects natgas supply to modestly outpace demand in '19 (but by only 0.7Bcf/d). Additionally, lower ethane rejection in 2018/2019 will drive an increase in natgas dema
6、nd (click here to see our ethane 101 note). If dry natgas production outpaced demand, the low natgas prices could drive slower production and potentially result in higher U.S. consumption and higher interests in U.S. LNG exports. We note there are 3 LNG projects that have FERC and Non-FTA approvals (6Bcf/d) and some could potentially announce FID, incl. Lake Charles LNG (ETP), Cameron LNG expansion (Sempra) and Golden Pass (ExxonMobil). Additionally, fewer imports w
7、ould be needed from Canada with an LNG export terminal in Canada that would help balance natgas supply-demand in the North America (Shell plans to FID LNG Canada in 2018). The Shift to Wet NatGas in the Northeast In a low gas price environment, we see a scenario where producers switch from large gas wells in NE PA to smaller gas wells in the wet Marcellus that have large NGL components. In our recent Basis 101 Series, “Northeast NGL Infrastructure,“ we note th
8、at once ME2 comes online in mid-2018, NGL prices in the NE should improve due to lower transportation costs. Improved differentials should drive higher prod, in particular in the wet Marcellus. In this price scenario, we see a risk to legacy natgas pipelines in the NE (like Transco), as volumes could switch to new contracted projects. AR on its 1Q18 conf call noted wet natgas economics are stronger than Utica dry natgas What About Free Permian Gas? In our Basin 101
9、Series “Permian NatGas however, we still see the need for a second pipeline to fulfil prod coming online through 2020. With investor concern of Permian overbuild, we note that significant capital needs to be invested to move Permian gas to end markets. To add 6Bcf/d of takeaway capacity to the Gulf Coast, costs for 2-3 greenfield pipelines would be $5B. Equities Americas Energy Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFA Analyst +1-212-713 3974 Aga Zmigrodzka,
10、CFA Analyst +1-212-713 3014 Michelle Kenel Associate Analyst +1-212-713 4896 Brian Reynolds Associate Analyst +1-212-713 2563 Luke Vernon Associate Analyst +1-212-713 2402 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享5+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、每月汇总500+份当月重磅报告（增值服务）扫一扫二维码 关注公号 回复：研究报告 加入“起点财经”微信群。Master Limited Partnerships 7 May 2018 2 Closer Look at the U.S. Natural Gas Supply-DemandRecently, investor focus has been on the potential negative impact of the fast growing Permian associated gas production on US natural gas prices and Northeast natgas production.It is important to differentiate b
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