国际战略研究中心-理解中俄军事结盟对跨大西洋安全的更广泛影响（英）-2022.12-127正式版

Understanding the Broader Transatlantic Security Implications of Greater Sino-Russian Military AlignmentEDITORSMax BergmannAndrew LohsenCONTRIBUTORSCecilie SendstadUna HakvgMeia NouwensPaul SchwartzBrian HartBonny LinRobert Samuel WilsonMarc JulienneKatri PynnniemiAlessio PatalanoDECEMBER 2022A Report of the CSIS Europe,Russia,and Eurasia ProgramUnderstanding the Broader Transatlantic Security Implications of Greater Sino-Russian Military AlignmentDECEMBER 2022A Report of the CSIS Europe,Russia,and Eurasia ProgramEDITORSMax BergmannAndrew LohsenCONTRIBUTORSCecilie SendstadUna HakvgMeia NouwensPaul SchwartzBrian HartBonny LinRobert Samuel WilsonMarc JulienneKatri PynnniemiAlessio PatalanoII|Transatlantic Security Implications of Greater Sino-Russian Military AlignmentCenter for Strategic&International Studies1616 Rhode Island Avenue,NWWashington,DC 20036202-887-0200|www.csis.orgAbout CSISThe Center for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS)is a bipartisan,nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the worlds greatest challenges.Thomas J.Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015,succeeding former U.S.senator Sam Nunn(D-GA).Founded in 1962,CSIS is led by John J.Hamre,who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000.CSISs purpose is to define the future of national security.We are guided by a distinct set of valuesnonpartisanship,independent thought,innovative thinking,cross-disciplinary scholarship,integrity and professionalism,and talent development.CSISs values work in concert toward the goal of making real-world impact.CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise,judgment,and robust networks to their research,analysis,and recommendations.We organize conferences,publish,lecture,and make media appearances that aim to increase the knowledge,awareness,and salience of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the interested public.CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking of key influencers.We work toward a vision of a safer and more prosperous world.CSIS does not take specific policy positions;accordingly,all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.All rights reserved.III|Max Bergmann and Andrew LohsenAcknowledgmentsThis report would not have been possible without the support of the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies,which provided vital assistance in identifying and translating Chinese language source materials and ensuring that the Chinese perspective on the bilateral relationship as adequately represented.In particular,we thank Jude Blanchette,who holds the Freeman Chair,for his thoughtful advice and leadership during critical phases of the project,and Alexandra Chopenko for her invaluable research support throughout the period of performance.CSIS had the pleasure to convene two working group sessions in which experts of the Russian and Chinese defense industries shared their perspectives on the translated materials and provided their assessment of where the relationship may progress.We thank them for their participation and for providing input that helped shape the analytical papers and the executive summary,and appreciate the moderation provided by Bonny Lin,director of the CSIS China Power program.Finally,we would like to thank the authors of the eight analytical papers for their thoughtful analysis of the four aspects of bilateral military cooperation between Russia and China assessed in this report.Their insights will help the Euro-Atlantic community prepare more effectively for the implications of this deepening alignment.IV|Transatlantic Security Implications of Greater Sino-Russian Military AlignmentContentsExecutive Summary 1 Max Bergmann and Andrew Lohsen1|Russian Views on Sino-Russian Military-Technical Cooperation 6Cecilie Sendstad and Una Hakvg2|Sino-Russian Military-Technological Cooperation:From Capability Gaps to Technology Partnership?13Meia Nouwens3|Russia-China Joint Military Exercises:The View from Russia 18Paul Schwartz4|Chinese Strategic Views on Joint Military Exercises with Russia:Drivers,Trends,and Implications 28Brian Hart and Bonny Lin5|Sino-Russian Space Cooperation and What It Means for the United States 35Robert Samuel Wilson6|China-Russia Cooperation in Space:The Reality behind the Speeches 41Marc Julienne7|The Global Hybrid War and the Role of China in Russian Strategic Thinking 49Katri Pynnniemi 8|How Does the Chinese Strategic Community Envision Cooperation with Russia on Hybrid and Gray Zone Tactics?55Alessio PatalanoAbout the Editors and Contributors 62Appendix 66Endnotes 1051|Max Bergmann and Andrew LohsenMax Bergmann and Andrew Lohsenn early February 2022,Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China met in person for the first time in two years for bilateral talks in advance of the Winter Olympics in Beij